Might as well not beat around the bush, Round 4 was a massacre, easily my worst week since I started doing this over a year ago. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, didn’t have a single win, only a couple of refunds from Draw No Bet selections. From what I hear most people were in the same boat as me over the weekend, with some of the crazy results that popped up. No point resting on our laurels, lets have a quick look at those games and get stuck into round.
Wellington beat Western Sydney as I expected, but unfortunately they weren’t enough value to make it as a selection. Burns scored the game winner for them, then McGlinchey should of made it 2-0 but he couldn’t convert a penalty which was a little disappointing to see, game never looked in doubt though.
Adelaide hosted Sydney on Friday night and this game ended 0-0 somehow. Between the 2 teams there was a crazy 28 shots at goal, I don’t know how none of them hit the back of the net, especially Adelaide, they had a plethora of chances, some looked so easy that I could of converted them.
Another game that disappointed the hell out of me was on Saturday afternoon. Newcastle, who I had as my best of the weekend led Melbourne Victory 2-0 and I thought that I was sitting pretty, until they managed to completely throw away their lead within the next 15 minutes. In my opinion that just not good enough, you should always be taking 3 points out of any game when you are up 2 goals, especially at home.
If someone could have predicted the next result, they should have my job. I know Brisbane have been poor, but who could see Melbourne City winning the game so easily. They scored 2 goals in the first 10 minutes, from then it was always going to be hard for Brisbane to come back into it, the premiers have certainly fallen from grace.
The round finished off with Central Coast and Perth, and like most I thought it was Central Coast’s match to lose, and that’s exactly what they did. They dominated the match with 63% of the possession, but they couldn’t convert that into any goals. They ended up losing 1-0, and like Brisbane their season looks in desperate trouble.
Onto Round 6, the plus side is I can’t imagine it could be possibly as bad as last week. We’ve got 6 matches this week to sink our teeth into, with Western Sydney and Central Coast playing their make-up game from a few weeks ago. I’ll leave the review of that game to the end of the weekend so that I can assess their games before pricing up the match.
The highlight of the round has to be Sydney and Melbourne Victory, it’s always a blockbuster, and with both teams in good form, I’d say it would be again, I’m looking forward to sitting back and watching that one.
Also of interest will be if Perth can hold their unexpected spot at the top of the ladder, they host Western Sydney, which I think gives them every chance to get another 3 points on board.
We’ve got a few selections this week, and there’s a couple of quieter games too, so let’s hope we can take advantage of the ones that look to have some value in them.
Fingers crossed for more luck than last week.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value
1st: Perth Glory/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.20.
2nd: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.40.
3rd: Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $1.80.
4th: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $2.55.
Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar
Friday 14 November, 4:40pm – Hunter Stadium
The round kicks off on Friday night with a “thriller”, Newcastle hosts Brisbane as both teams try and get their first win for the season. Newcastle is coming off a credible 2-2 draw with Melbourne Victory. While the result wasn’t too bad, the fact that they led 2-0 and threw it away is rather disappointing, it’s like they don’t want to win out there. Brisbane are coming off their poorest match of the season, they lost 3-1 to Melbourne City, who before the match hadn’t won a game either this season. I know they’ve lost a few players but they don’t look anything like the team that was so dominate last season. Newcastle really should be able to get their first win on the board in this game, they look hard to beat, I rate them a $2.10 shot. Brisbane, even during their peak, have surprisingly struggled against Newcastle in recent times, not winning any of their last 5 encounters. Newcastle definitely look good value at $2.55 in the Head to Head and at $1.87 in the Draw No Bet market, reckon both prices will trim up by Friday night.
Last 5 games
Newcastle 4
Draw 1
Brisbane 0
Head to Head
Rated Price
Newcastle $2.10
Draw $3.91
Brisbane $3.73
Market Price
Newcastle $2.55 Unibet
Draw $3.45 Sportsbet
Brisbane $2.75 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Newcastle $1.56
Brisbane $2.77
Market Price
Newcastle $1.87 TAB
Brisbane $1.98 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.79
Under $2.27
Market Price
Over $1.80 Everywhere
Under $2.00 Unibet, Bet365
Value: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $2.55.
Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $1.87.
Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 15 November, 5:00pm – Hindmarsh Stadium
We have three matches on Saturday, the first being this one-sided game between Adelaide and Wellington. Adelaide did disappoint me last week, when they only managed a draw against a strong Sydney, but they did dominate the play and had so many shots, they just couldn’t convert. Wellington beat Western Sydney 1-0, which was pretty much expected, they also missed a penalty, so really should of won 2-0, can’t knock them on the performance, but it was nothing special. Adelaide look to have a stranglehold on this match, I have them a the shortest price favourite of the week, and one of the shortest I’ve seen since the start of the season, they really should be winning this match. Although I have Adelaide short, so does the rest of Australia, I have them rated exactly the same as the current top price. Wellington do look a little value at $6.50, but not enough to make it as a selection, if they got out to $7.00 then that would be enough to lure me in.
Last 5 games
Adelaide 3
Draw 1
Wellington 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Adelaide $1.63
Draw $4.56
Wellington $6.04
Market Price
Adelaide $1.63 Luxbet
Draw $4.00 TAB, Bet365
Wellington $6.50 TAB
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Adelaide $1.27
Wellington $4.71
Market Price
Adelaide $1.25 Luxbet, Bet365
Wellington $4.00 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.76
Under $2.32
Market Price
Over $1.80 Bet365
Under $2.02 Luxbet
Value: No value.
Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 15 November 7:30pm – Allianz Stadium
Saturday night we have the highlight of the round, at least in my opinion. Two of the best performing teams so far this season go head to head in what is always a spiteful rivalry. Sydney came away with a point from their road trip to Adelaide last week, which I really don’t think they deserved, but they still got the draw and that’s what matters. Melbourne Victory are coming of a similar situation, they’re coming out of a match that was a pretty even match-up against Newcastle, but when they went down 2-0 early it looked like it was all over. They fought back to finish the game 2-2 and earned themselves a valuable point that they didn’t think they would be able to get. Whatever happens in this match I’m sure it will be entertaining, these fixtures always throw up a lot of sparks and both teams will have their eye on that top spot on the ladder. I think at home this is Sydney’s match; they play so well at Allianz, and Melbourne Victory’s road record, while not completely rubbish, it’s not the greatest either. I was shocked when I seen that the price difference between these 2 teams was so close; there definitely should be a much bigger margin between them. Sydney is a great price in both markets; they are my best value Head to Head and Draw No Bet selections of the weekend.
Last 5 games
Sydney 2
Draw 2
Melbourne Victory 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.86
Draw $4.13
Melbourne Victory $4.53
Market Price
Sydney $2.40 Everywhere
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $2.80 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price: Sydney $1.41
Melbourne Victory $3.44
Market Price
Sydney $1.80 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $2.05 Everywhere
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.90
Under $2.12
Market Price
Over $1.70 Bet365
Under $2.15 Luxbet
Value: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.40.
Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $1.80.
Perth Glory v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 15 November, 9:30pm – NIB Stadium
The other game we have this Saturday is the table toppers Perth who are hosting Western Sydney, who are clocking up some serious frequent flyer miles. Last week Perth travelled to Central Coast, and once again came away with a surprise 3 points, they looked to struggle, only holding 37% of the possession, but they got the goal in the net, which Central Coast couldn’t, so they got yet another win. Western Sydney had to travel to New Zealand, not long after they had to go to the Middle East, and now they are going to Perth, they’ll be looking forward to staying on the east coast in upcoming weeks. They lost 1-0 to Wellington, but that was expected, so can’t take too much out of their performance. While this isn’t black and white, I think Perth deserve to be a clear favourite in this match, and the lure of keeping their spot on the top of the ladder will help them even further. I wonder how long it will take before people start taking this Glory side seriously (myself included). Think the $2.40 for Perth is good value, there is better value around on the weekend, but they do look a decent price. The real value in this match is the crazy $2.20 you can get for Over 2.5 Goals, this game looks destined to be a high scoring affair, I don’t know how Overs isn’t favourite, it’s the best value of the weekend in my opinion.
Last 5 games
Perth 0
Draw 1
Western Sydney 4
Head to Head
Rated Price
Perth $2.14
Draw $3.90
Western Sydney $3.63
Market Price
Perth $2.40 Betstar, Bookmaker, Ladbrokes
Draw $3.40 Everywhere
Western Sydney $2.90 Luxbet, Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Perth $1.59
Western Sydney $2.70
Market Price
Perth $1.72 Unibet
Western Sydney $2.10 Everywhere
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.46
Under $3.15
Market Price
Over $2.20 Bet365
Under $1.71 Sportsbet
Value: Perth Glory/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.20.
Perth Glory – Head to Head – $2.40.
Melbourne City v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 16 November, 5:00pm – Suncorp Stadium
Sunday we have a match-up between two pretty poorly performed teams. Melbourne City host Central Coast in a match that will struggle to draw too much interest. Melbourne City chalked up their first win of the season last week when they travelled to Brisbane and came away with a relatively easy 3-1 win, maybe they’ve turned the corner that everyone has been expecting, or maybe they got lucky. Central Coast hosted Perth and couldn’t even manage a draw out of the match. They went down 1-0 in a very average performance; they have to change a lot if they are going to turn this season around. I have Melbourne City odds-on, which I think you almost have to with how bad Central Coast have been going, and on the road, it’s tough to see them getting much out of this game. An interesting point is that Melbourne City has only ever beaten Central Coast once, and that was nearly 3 years ago. Unfortunately this Sunday match looks to have no real value in it. Draw and Central Coast are unders and Melbourne City’s price looks to be spot on. The bookies even have the Over/Under market exactly where it should be, so we’ll have to leave this game alone.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 0
Draw 2
Central Coast 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.87
Draw $4.09
Central Coast $4.53
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.90 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Central Coast $4.20 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Melbourne City $1.41
Central Coast $3.42
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.36 Bet365, Sportingbet, TW
Central Coast $3.00 Everywhere
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.89
Under $2.13
Market Price
Over $1.90 Bet365
Under $1.91 Luxbet
Value: No value.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Central Coast Mariners
Wednesday 19 November, 7:30pm – Parramatta Stadium
Western Sydney Wanderers host this belated fixture against Central Coast Mariners due to their ACL campaign over the past month. Western Sydney had to travel all the way over to Perth only 4 days ago where they went down 2-1 to the Glory. That was pretty much expected, and the goal that they did get was an own goal late in the match, so that score line probably flatters them a little. Central Coast on the other hand is coming off a nice performance against Melbourne City. They travelled down to Melbourne for the game and while most thought they didn’t have much chance based on their form so far this season, they managed to come away with a well-earned draw. It’s hard to tell how the quick backup will effect both teams but I think the home ground advantage for Western Sydney definitely pushes this game into their favour. While they have been shaky so far this season, their home record over the last couple of seasons has been good and I expect them to find something like that again. Once again the bookies look to be all over this match, with the prices in each market matching up nearly identically, the closest thing to value I can see is the $4.70 for Central Coast, but that’s not enough to suck me in, if they drifted out to $5+ then I’d be keen on them, otherwise just another sit back and watch match. Luckily there are only a couple of days to the next round kicks off.
Last 5 games
Western Sydney 2
Draw 1
Central Coast 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Western Sydney $1.90
Draw $4.07
Central Coast $4.41
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.80 Sportingbet
Draw $3.75 Sportsbet
Central Coast $4.70 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Western Sydney $1.43
Central Coast $3.33
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.35 Everywhere
Central Coast $3.40 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $2.14
Under $1.88
Market Price
Over $2.05 Bet365
Under $1.77 Sportsbet
Value: No value.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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