Best Value
Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.15
Newcastle look a great bet against Central Coast on Sunday, they were very good in their 2-1 loss away to Melbourne City, and they come back home to face the worst team in the comp. I think they should be well into odds-on, so the $2.15 on offer is incredibly enticing.
Next Best Value
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.05
This will be a controversial tip, because I know how well Sydney have been playing, but I think Brisbane get every chance to beat them this week. Their form has been solid and they’re a great “home side”. The Head to Head was tempting, but I think at $2.05 for money back if it’s a draw is the safer way to go.
Best Value:
1st: Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.15
2nd: Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.05
3rd: Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $2.05
4th: Newcastle/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.63
Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne City
Friday 18 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium
We have a rarity this week with a double-header on Friday night to kick Round 7 off, the first match is between Western Sydney and Melbourne City. Western Sydney got a bit of a touchup last week against the other Melbourne side, Melbourne Victory. While they held a decent amount of possession, they couldn’t turn that into goals scored, whereas Melbourne Victory on the minimal possession could. They ended up going down 3-0, so they’ll be really hoping to bounce back this week, back at home will definitely help them too. It was another nice enough win by Melbourne City last week, they were hosting Newcastle, so everyone expected nothing less than three points, but that’s exact what they delivered. Their main man Fornaroli was at the front and center again scoring both of their goals in the 2-1 win. This looks a pretty tight match, but I think Western Sydney can bounce back this week and land another win. Pretty happy to be on Western Sydney as well at the prices they’ve gone up, I really think they should be the favourites.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 2
Melbourne City 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.24
Melbourne City $3.42
Draw $3.84
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.88 Bet365
Melbourne City $2.50 Bet365
Draw $3.60 Palmerbet, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.65
Melbourne City $2.53
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.05 William Hill, Unibet
Melbourne City $1.77 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.03
Over $1.33
Market Price:
Under $2.45 Unibet
Over $1.57 Bet365, Palmerbet
Value: Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.88
Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $2.05
Western Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.57
Perth Glory v Adelaide United
Friday 18 November, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
The later match of the Friday night double is Perth against the struggling Adelaide. Perth disappointed me last week when they played Sydney away. It was always going to be tough, Sydney being clearly the best side so far this season, but they put in a really poor effort. They lost 4-1, and never really even looked like they were in with a chance. Adelaide continued to have a poor start to the year with a draw when they hosted Brisbane. Obviously Brisbane is a pretty decent team, but having now finished 6 games, without a win, that just doesn’t cut it. Perth should have no troubles at all knocking off Adelaide, they’ve got a better team, and they’re in better form, everything points to three points. The price is good enough for Perth too, better with even money, can’t argue with that, they should be getting the job done.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Adelaide 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.79
Adelaide $4.90
Draw $4.23
Market Price:
Perth $2.10 Bet365
Adelaide $3.40 Everywhere
Draw $3.75 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.37
Adelaide $3.74
Market Price:
Perth $1.53 William Hill
Adelaide $2.55 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.81
Over $1.55
Market Price:
Under $2.32 Unibet
Over $1.70 Ubet
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $2.10
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.53
Perth/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC
Saturday 19 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane have the tough task this week of hosting the unbeaten Sydney, this looks to be a match fit for primetime watching on Saturday night. Brisbane played Adelaide away last week and had to settle for just the one point. It was a quiet affair early, so when Holman broke through at the hour mark, a lot of people thought that might be the end of it. It wasn’t to be though as Adelaide tied the game up 20 minutes later. While they’d be disappointed they didn’t get the win, you’d take a draw out of a road match any day. Sydney just continued their utter domination of the season so far with a 4-1 victory over Perth. They’re now 6 wins from 6 games, and no one looks like knocking them off their pedestal just yet. The other impressive thing about Sydney so far is they currently have a Goal Difference of +15, the next highest team is Melbourne Victory on +5, that’s a big difference. I know Sydney have just continued to win, but I think they might get knocked off this week by Brisbane. So far at home this season they’ve had 2 wins and a draw from 3 matches, all against strong teams, that’s enough for me to think they’ll put up a big showing. I know it’s brazen but I’m going with Brisbane, I think they’re a good side and they get their chance to show if they can match it with the big boys this week. Over 2.5 Goals looks a nice price too to my eye.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Sydney 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.14
Sydney $3.68
Draw $3.84
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.80 Bet365
Sydney $2.44 Unibet
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.58
Sydney $2.72
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.05 William Hill
Sydney $1.78 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.67
Over $1.60
Market Price:
Under $2.18 Sportsbet
Over $1.75 Bet365
Value: Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.80
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $2.05
Brisbane/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 20 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
Just the one game on Sunday this week to wrap up the round, it’s between Newcastle and Central Coast. Newcastle were gallant last week when they played Melbourne City at AAMI Park. They were massive underdogs, and to go down 2-1 was probably as good an effort as we could expect. Central Coast were pretty average last week, they hosted Wellington, one of the easier fixtures on their calendar, but they went down 2-0. They dominated possession, but struggled in the final third to get any shots off, they only managed 2 on target for the whole game. Even though these teams are on the same amount of points, I feel that Newcastle is the far superior team. That, plus the fact that they are at home, where they play their best football, this should be a no brainer for them. I think we’ve saved the best for last, I’m really keen on Newcastle here, I can’t really see them not winning so the $2.15 about them looks a luxury.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Central Coast 0
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.62
Central Coast $5.57
Draw $4.75
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.15 William Hill
Central Coast $3.60 Bet365
Draw $3.65 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.28
Central Coast $4.54
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.61 William Hill
Central Coast $2.63 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.85
Over $1.35
Market Price:
Under $2.30 Everywhere
Over $1.63 Sportsbet
Value: Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.15
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.61
Newcastle/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.63
@AL_TheProfits
*Prices correct at time of writing
