Round 7 is done and dusted and we came out of it with the tiniest of profits. It was looking a lot better until we got to the last game of the weekend when Central Coast put up a pitiful performance.
Friday had a double header that went exactly to plan. I had Melbourne Victory and Perth both rated odds-on against their opponents, Brisbane and Wellington respectively. While Victory did take quiet a while to get it done, they ended up scoring by the way of an own goal in the last 15 minutes. Perth on the other hand had control early in the game, and never looked in danger of not getting the three points.
On Saturday it was the opposite, two disappointing efforts from two favoured home teams. Western Sydney could only manage a point against Newcastle, a very average performance; it could have something to do with their quick back up from Wednesday. Melbourne City hosted Sydney and they were never in the match. Sydney scored a couple of goals putting the game out of their reach, City scored a late goal to make the score line not look as bad, but they were average.
The last game of the weekend, I really expected to see more from Central Coast after their decent effort last week, but they are back to their average self. Granted they were playing a very good Adelaide side, but they got beaten up. Two first half goals to Sanchez gave Central Coast little hope for the rest of the match.
Round 5 kicks off on Friday and we get to see a real blockbuster, not only are Melbourne Victory and Adelaide two of the best performed teams this season, but they also have a fierce rivalry which will make this match a real spectacle.
Another highlight of the round is the Sydney Derby, normally I’d give the advantage to Sydney FC, but being played out at Parramatta, it swings the game back in Western Sydney’s favour.
I’m also going to stop mentioning all the different bookmakers that have the same top price when they are owned by the same parent company, for example Sportingbet, Centrebet and TW always have the same prices.
Enough of the chit-chat, onto the preview’s for this week’s matches.
Fingers crossed the luck is starting to swing back in our advantage.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value
1st: Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.25.
2nd: Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.66.
3rd: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.25.
4th: Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.66.
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United
Friday 28 November, 7:40pm – AAMI Park
The round opens with another Melbourne Victory game as they host Adelaide United in the biggest match of the round. Melbourne Victory did what they were expected to do last week, they hosted Brisbane and got the 3 points. While they didn’t dominate Brisbane as you might expect, with their only score coming from an own goal, but a win is a win, and that’s all that matters. Adelaide probably had the most impressive win of the round, travelling to Central Coast and beating them 2-0 on their home turf, not the easiest of tasks. They didn’t really dominate the stats, but they got a couple of the most important stat, and that’s all you need to do to win games. Melbourne Victory will be looking to make the most of another home game, they haven’t dropped a single point in Victoria this season, and they’d like to keep it that way, I’d be pretty surprised if they didn’t. I’d say there would be some free flowing football too, so we should see a few goals. Once again it looks like we have some good value in the Melbourne Victory home game, bookies keep underestimating how strong they are at home, in both the Head to Head and Draw No Bet markets look to be good value for the home side. Also think Over 2.5 Goals should be shorter, so looks like we have a selection in all three markets for the opening game.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Victory 2
Draw 2
Adelaide 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Melbourne Victory $1.93
Draw $3.92
Adelaide $4.42
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $2.25 Sportingbet, Bet365
Draw $3.45 Sportsbet, Sportingbet
Adelaide $3.20 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Melbourne Victory $1.44
Adelaide $3.29
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.66 Sportingbet
Adelaide $2.31 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.65
Under $2.54
Market Price
Over $1.80 Sportsbet
Under $2.00 Bet365
Value: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.25.
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.66.
Melbourne Victory/Adelaide United – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory
Saturday 29 November, 5:00pm – Suncorp Stadium
The raining premiers try to get their season back on track as they host the top of the table Perth Glory. While Brisbane lost last week, it wasn’t that bad of a performance, they travelled down to Melbourne to take on Victory, a team who hasn’t lost at home this season yet. They ended up giving away a pretty late own goal, which was a little sloppy, but overall you can’t bag them too much on that game. With quite a few off the pitch issues going on since then though, it will be interesting to see how the Roar shape up. Perth continued on their way last week, racking up another win, taking that to 6 wins from the first 7 rounds, that’s a decent effort. Once again we would have been shocked if they didn’t win that game as they were an odds-on favourite, but they keep doing the right things, and that’s all that you can ask. Brisbane back at home should put up a very strong fight; I think it is their game to lose. If they put it together like they did two weeks ago they should be able to win this one easily enough. Thankfully there is plenty of value about Brisbane too, which I thought there might be. They look value in both markets and think both will trim up come Saturday, at the current quotes they’re my best value of the week.
Last 5 games
Brisbane 3
Draw 1
Perth 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Brisbane $1.89
Draw $4.03
Perth $4.47
Market Price
Brisbane $2.25 Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 Bet365
Perth $3.30 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Brisbane $1.42
Perth $3.36
Market Price
Brisbane $1.66 Sportingbet
Perth $2.38 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.82
Under $2.22
Market Price
Over $1.90 Bet365
Under $1.97 Luxbet
Value: Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.25.
Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.66.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC
Saturday 29 November, 7:30pm – Pirtek Stadium
We have a bit of entertainment Saturday night, the big Sydney Derby is on and it looks to be the closest matched game of the round. Western Sydney was average last week when they could only manage a point against Newcastle, I’m blaming the quick back up from the Wednesday before, but they are starting to run out of chances. Their across town rivals on the other hand were brilliant, went to Melbourne to take on City and came home with all 3 points for their efforts. They are definitely putting their hand up this year, and they could be in for big things at the pointy end of the season. As I said earlier this does look like one of the closest match-ups of the week. Both teams have good claims with the advantage slightly going to the home side. Unfortunately all my prices are smack on target, Western Sydney would have to drift out to $2.55+ to be considered value, and I can’t imagine that happening, if anything they should tighten up a little.
Last 5 games
Western Sydney 2
Draw 1
Sydney 2
Head to Head
Rated Price
Western Sydney $2.32
Draw $3.84
Sydney $3.23
Market Price
Western Sydney $2.42 Sportingbet
Draw $3.45 Sportsbet
Sydney $3.10 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Western Sydney $1.72
Sydney $2.39
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.75 Sportingbet
Sydney $2.19 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.93
Under $2.07
Market Price
Over $2.05 Bet365, Luxbet
Under $1.77 Luxbet
Value: No value.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City
Sunday 30 November, 3:00pm – Westpac Stadium
The Sunday games get under way with Melbourne City heading over to New Zealand. Wellington had to travel all the way to Perth last week and they got the result most thought they would, nothing. They weren’t disgraced but never really looked in the hunt going down 2-1. Melbourne City was very average last Saturday, they hosted Sydney, who isn’t the best travelling team, and they couldn’t even manage a draw out of the fixture, losing their game 2-1. Both teams are currently just hanging onto a top 6 spot at the moment, but I can’t imagine that will last too long. Wellington should be able to get the better of Melbourne City here, but are far from a good thing. Another game where my prices match up extremely close to all the bookmakers’ prices, it’s one of the downsides of having accurate ratings, the plus side is when I do think that I have found value, I’m more confident that it is accurate.
Last 5 games
Wellington 3
Draw 1
Melbourne City 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Wellington $2.13
Draw $3.66
Melbourne City $3.89
Market Price
Wellington $2.20 TAB
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Melbourne City $3.30 Sportingbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Wellington $1.58
Melbourne City $2.72
Market Price
Wellington $1.65 TAB
Melbourne City $2.47 Sportingbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.96
Under $2.04
Market Price
Over $1.83 Luxbet
Under $2.00 Bet365
Value: No value.
Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 30 November, 5:00pm – Hunter Stadium
Last game of Round 8 see’s Newcastle Jets host the Central Coast Mariners in a battle to keep of the bottom of the table. Newcastle were actually pretty decent last week, they got a draw out of their match with Western Sydney, which I was a little surprised to see, although the Wanderers could of been tired from their previous game. Central Coast were very average a week ago, losing 2-0 to Adelaide. At no point did they look threatening, which is a surprise after their good performance the week before. Just like Newcastle they are going to have to start turning things around or the season will be over very quickly for them. After last weeks efforts I’d be surprised if Central Coast could get much out of this match. Newcastle look to have the goods in this one and I think they should be just above even money. Luckily we can finish the round with a selection; Newcastle Head to Head looks to be a good price at $2.27, I‘d imagine it will come in from there by Sunday, but at that price they are worth a gamble in my opinion.
Last 5 games
Newcastle 0
Draw 2
Central Coast 3
Head to Head
Rated Price
Newcastle $2.09
Draw $3.81
Central Coast $3.85
Market Price
Newcastle $2.27 Sportingbet
Draw $3.40 Sportsbet, Sportingbet
Central Coast $3.40 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Newcastle $1.54
Central Coast $2.84
Market Price
Newcastle $1.65 Sportingbet
Central Coast $2.38 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $2.04
Under $1.96
Market Price
Over $2.12 Luxbet
Under $1.72 Luxbet
Value: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $2.27.
*Prices correct at time of writing.
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