A-League 2017/18 – Round 20

Best Value

Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.52

This is a game of poor defenses, and that means there should be goals aplenty. I know $1.52 is short, but I had the price rated a hell of a lot shorter than that.

Next Best Value

Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.85

Another shorty at $1.85, but I don’t really see how Adelaide get beat by Central Coast. Adelaide is a top 4 side, playing at home, against one of the weakest teams in the league, this should be a no brainer.

1st:       Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.52

2nd:       Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.85

3rd      Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.55

4th:       Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.85

 

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Friday 9 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Round 20 is split over two weekends, with two games this week and the remaining three next weekend. First up are Melbourne Victory and Brisbane at AAMI Park on Friday night. Last Saturday Melbourne Victory had Newcastle away, and they never really stood up to the challenge. They managed to get a lot of shots off, but couldn’t finish like Newcastle could. They ended up going down 2-0, but Newcastle is a top class side, so that was result wasn’t much of a shock. Brisbane hosted the other Melbourne team last week, Melbourne City, and although they led early in the game, they couldn’t get the job done and lost 2-1. After Maccarone got them the lead, it was very disappointing to see them throw it away, it was a good chance for them to get another win, and get themselves into the top 6. Home ground advantage is massive for Melbourne Victory, and that should be enough for them to get all three points out of this fixture. $1.70 seems a fair enough price for them, but it doesn’t give us any edge, I’d need $1.90 to get involved, otherwise it’s a sit out match for me.

 

Last 5 games: 

Melbourne Victory      3

Brisbane                      1

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:   

Melbourne Victory      $1.72

Brisbane                      $5.39

Draw                           $4.27

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.70 Everywhere

Brisbane                      $4.80 Unibet

Draw                           $4.20 Bet365, Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.32

Brisbane                      $4.13

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne Victory      $1.30 Ladbrokes, Bet365

Brisbane                      $4.00 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $2.48

Over                            $1.68

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.40 Ubet

Over                            $1.61 Sportsbet

 

Value:             No value

 

 

Melbourne City v Sydney FC

Saturday 10 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The match of the round has to be this blockbuster between Melbourne City and Sydney on Saturday night. Melbourne City is coming off a very strong away win last week against Brisbane on the road. What made the victory even more impressive was the fact that they came from 1-0 down to win 2-1. They’re now comfortably holding third place on the ladder, and are setting their sights on Newcastle in second. Sydney demolished Wellington last week, as you would expect from a “first vs last” match. But they really did never give Wellington the slightest look in by controlling the game with 64% of the possession. At the final whistle the score was 4-0, but they had the game won a long time before that. This should be a real cracker, but I think the league leaders have a slight advantage going into the game. At the prices though, I think Melbourne City is who you have to be with. $2.55 looks a great price in the Draw No Bet market too, giving you a little bit of security.

 

Last 5 games:

Melbourne City           0

Sydney                         5

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Melbourne City           $2.98

Sydney                         $2.58

Draw                           $3.63

 

Market Price: 

Melbourne City           $3.50 Ladbrokes, Bet365

Sydney                         $2.15 William Hill

Draw                           $3.60 TopBetta, Sportsbet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Melbourne City           $2.16

Sydney                         $1.87

 

Market Price:

Melbourne City           $2.55 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.57 Ladbrokes

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.03

Over                            $1.97

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.00 Bet365

Over                            $1.82 Ubet

 

Value:             Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.55

                        Melbourne City – Head to Head – $3.50

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Newcastle Jets

Friday 16 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium

Part two of Round 20 kicks-off at Spotless Stadium on Friday night with an interesting match between Western Sydney and Newcastle. Western Sydney is coming into this match off a dominant win against Wellington last Sunday. They went into the match as a strong favourite and didn’t disappoint. The final score was 4-0, and the result never looked in doubt for them. That’s back-to-back wins now, enough to boost them up into a finals position; they’ll need more football like that if they’re to stay in a finals spot though. Newcastle continued their solid form when hosting Melbourne Victory Saturday week ago. They were beaten in possession and shots at goal, but weren’t beaten on the most important stat, goals. When the final whistle was blown the scoreboard showed 2-0 in their favour. They mixed it up with their goal scorers too with Boogaard and McGree getting on the sheet, a pair that rarely hit the back of the net. This should be a good tough match, with both teams getting their chance. I struggled to split the sides but in the end gave the slight nod to Western Sydney, hoping that home ground advantage does enough for them. Their price is good enough too; I’m keen on the $1.85 in the Draw No Bet market personally.

 

Last 5 games: 

Western Sydney          2

Newcastle                   1

Draw                           2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Western Sydney          $2.52

Newcastle                   $2.98

Draw                           $3.75

 

Market Price:

Western Sydney          $2.80 Unibet, TopBetta

Newcastle                   $2.50 Bet365

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   

Western Sydney          $1.85

Newcastle                   $2.18

 

Market Price:

Western Sydney          $2.08 Unibet

Newcastle                   $1.78 Ubet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                          $2.54

Over                            $1.65

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.25 Sportsbet, Ubet

Over                            $1.64 Bet365

 

Value:             Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.85

                        Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.80

 

Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory

Saturday 17 February, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Wellington has a chance to get back into winning form when they host Perth Saturday afternoon. Wellington played Western Sydney on Sunday and it was a demolition job. Wellington never got a look in throughout the 90 minutes. The end result was a 4-0 loss, which isn’t great when they had a 4-0 loss the week before too. They’re back at home and against far easier opposition here so let’s hope they can show a little more. Perth played Adelaide away in Round 19 and although Keogh got them an early lead minutes into the game, they still couldn’t manage a result. Their away form is becoming a real issue for Perth, and could be what costs them a spot in the finals at the pointy end of the season. Very happy to be with Wellington here, as mentioned above Perth’s away form is atrocious, so you’ve got to be with the home side. Their price isn’t the best though, and the value in the match looks to be the Over 2.5 Goals option at $1.52, it’s got to be close to a good thing.

 

Last 5 games: 

Wellington                  1

Perth                           3

Draw                           1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Wellington                  $2.27

Perth                           $3.42

Draw                           $3.74

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $2.25 Unibet, Ubet

Perth                           $3.20 Bet365

Draw                           $3.75 William Hill

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Wellington                  $1.67

Perth                           $2.50

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                  $1.68 Ubet

Perth                           $2.27 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $6.07

Over                            $1.20

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $2.55 Ubet

Over                            $1.52 Sportsbet

 

Value:             Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.52

 

 

Adelaide United v Central Coast

Saturday 17 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Last game of Round 20 is Adelaide and Central Coast at Hindmarsh Stadium on Saturday night. Adelaide hosted Perth last week, and even though they fell a goal behind early in the match, they fought back to take all three points away from the game. They were helped by an own goal, but they won’t be complaining. Their form is really starting to stack up, and surprisingly they’re now up to fourth on the table. Central Coast’s tough season continued when they hosted Western Sydney last round. They lost 2-1, but their goal came pretty late in the piece, and was more of a consolation goal rather than any real threat to Western Sydney. They’ve continued to slide on the table and are now second bottom, which is disappointing as the started the season reasonably well, for them anyway. No shocks here, Adelaide just wins. Central Coast won’t be able to get near them; a score line around 3-0 wouldn’t shock me at all. Bookies have gone up $1.85 about Adelaide too, that’s decent overs, I had them nearly $1.50.

 

Last 5 games:

Adelaide                      3

Central Coast              2

Draw                           0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.56

Central Coast              $6.51

Draw                           $4.90

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.85 Everywhere

Central Coast              $4.25 TopBetta, Unibet

Draw                           $3.60 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:

Adelaide                      $1.24

Central Coast              $5.18

 

Market Price: 

Adelaide                      $1.40 Ladbrokes

Central Coast              $3.25 Bet365

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                          $1.87

Over                            $2.15

 

Market Price: 

Under                          $1.95 Bet365

Over                            $1.90 William Hill, Ubet

 

Value:             Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.85

                        Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.40

 

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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