So the AFL and NRL finished up last weekend, now the real football in Australia starts, the round ball kind!
For all those who haven’t seen my A-League previews over the last couple of years I’ll give you a quick run down. I’m basically a mad football (soccer) fan; have been since I was little. All started off with my beloved Manchester United, I was a big EPL fan, cause to be honest, Australian football wasn’t all that great 15 years ago. But then 10 years ago something happened that changed this nation for the better, the A-League was born.
It kicked off with a bang, but surprisingly it has continued to get bigger and better every year, we are now starting to see legitimate stars (albeit in the later stages of their careers) sign onto A-League clubs. Ten years ago who would of thought footballers like Emile Heskey, Alessandro Del Piero and David Villa would ever set foot on an Australian pitch.
Each week I’ll provide a preview of each game and which way I see the result going. I’ll then add in the best odds available for each team and the betting options I’m looking at, followed by my rated prices, then highlight where I think the best value in the match is.
I’ll still be strongly focusing on the classic Head to Head market, mainly because I think this is where most of the best value is to be found. I keep on saying it, but based on the figures, the “Draw” is nearly always unders, so why wouldn’t you bet into a 3 horse race when you know one of them is paying under the odds.
I understand not everyone loves the Head to Head market as much as me though, so I’ll be bringing back the “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” and “Draw No Bet” markets too.
Last year I found my best results came from the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, it will be interesting to see if that trend continues this season.
Feel free to pass on any feedback that you have, I’m always looking for ways that I can improve the write-ups.
Hopefully you enjoy the weekly read and feel free to share it via a RT if you like, it’s always appreciated. Let’s make this a winning 2015/16 A-League season.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Western Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.00.
2nd: Sydney – Head to Head – $2.30.
3rd: Wellington – Head to Head – $1.94.
4th: Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.95.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar
Thursday 8 October, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Pirtek Stadium
It’s the first game for the 2015/16 A-League season, and if it was the start of last season this would have been a blockbuster, but both of these sides disappointed last year. They’ll both be looking to make amends as they kick off the eleventh A-League season this Thursday. After Western Sydney’s horrid campaign last season they went looking to sign players that could turn their fortune around, and I think they might of found some. They finished up the season only one point above Newcastle, so they had to take drastic measures. Brisbane ended up making the finals last year, but only because Perth got kicked out. They showed that they didn’t belong in finals after bowing out the first week to Adelaide. Western Sydney shouldn’t have any excuses for dropping points in the opening round of the season; they look like they’ll be too strong for Brisbane who struggled to travel last season, only winning two games away from Queensland. As far as prices are concerned, I think Western Sydney is definitely value H2H, most bookies are a little shorter, but Palmerbet has $2.32 up, which is surely overs. It doesn’t stop there though, unless the players have forgot how to kick over the break, this should be a heavy scoring game, and even money for this to go over 2.5 is a luxury.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Brisbane 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.11
Brisbane $3.72
Draw $3.89
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.32 Palmerbet
Brisbane $3.35 Sportsbet
Draw $3.40 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.57
Brisbane $2.77
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.63 Palmerbet
Brisbane $2.39 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.36
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $1.83 Palmerbet
Over $2.00 Bet365
Value: Western Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.00.
Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.32.
Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory
Friday 9 October, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Adelaide Oval
Easily the highlight of the opening round, Friday night, two of last season’s top three teams face off, and to add to the mix, the teams happen to despise each other too, this will be cracker. Adelaide had a great season last year, but it all came to and end when they faced Sydney in the Semi Final and I think they’ll be even more competitive this season. Melbourne Victory don’t need much introduction, they did everything last season, finished on top of the ladder, won the Grand Final, they’ll be super confident coming into this year. I think Adelaide should be able to land the first punch this season by knocking the reigning premiers from their pedestal. I don’t understand how Melbourne Victory can be favourites for this match, they are a very good, the best in the league I think, but that doesn’t mean that they should be this short when on the road to a quality team like Adelaide. I think the home team is value across the board; both H2H and DNB look very backable at their current prices. These are also two of the best defense’s going around, so Under 2.5 Goals looks attractive too at $2.00.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 0
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.01
Melbourne Victory $4.14
Draw $3.85
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.75 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $2.60 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.50 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.49
Melbourne Victory $3.06
Market Price
Adelaide $1.95 William Hill
Melbourne Victory $1.91 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.59
Over $2.68
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value: Adelaide – Head to Head – $2.75.
Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.95.
Adelaide/Melbourne Victory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.00.
Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory
Saturday 10 October, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
Saturday afternoon looks to be the home of this week’s closest game as Perth Glory hit the road to visit the Mariners. Central Coast were extremely average last season and they don’t appear to have developed their list very much, so hopefully they’ve been working on something in the off-season to improve and hopefully make a play for finals. Perth are coming off a very strong season, if it wasn’t for their off-the-field mishap, who knows how far into finals they could have gone. Nervously I’m giving a slight edge to Central Coast, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the game go the other way at all. I’m hoping Central Coast have put it all together and can come out of the boxes at full speed. To be honest, I’m kind of glad the market has priced up these teams basically the same as me, means it’s a sit out and watch match, which is probably a good thing. There looks to be a bit of value in the Over/Under market anyway, at $2.14 I think Over 2.5 Goals is the best way to have an investment on this match.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 1
Perth 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.50
Perth $2.94
Draw $3.85
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.55 Sportsbet
Perth $2.88 Bet365
Draw $3.35 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.85
Perth $2.17
Market Price
Central Coast $1.80 William Hill
Perth $2.00 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.28
Over $1.78
Market Price:
Under $1.73 Sportsbet
Over $2.14 Palmerbet
Value: Central Coast/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.14
Sydney FC v Melbourne City
Saturday 10 October, 07:30pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Another game that will definitely have a few eyes on it, once again there seems to be some hype around Melbourne City and while I don’t think they’ve gone backwards, on paper they don’t look to have really improved their list either, but time will tell. Sydney had almost a faultless campaign last year, making it all the way to the last game of the season, only to be pipped at the post by Melbourne Victory. It was always going to be hard for them to face the best team in the league away from home, but that loss didn’t take away from their very good year. Coincidently losing to Melbourne Victory is how Melbourne City’s season finished too, only this time in the Semi Final. They had a so so season, but ended up sneaking into a finals spot. They made it through the first week of finals after beating Wellington in New Zealand, which showed they do have the talent to do big things, but it doesn’t always come together. I think Melbourne City will have to wait to another week to show where they are at because I think Sydney should be able to convert an early three points. They look a much stronger team, and at home, they shouldn’t have any problem dealing with the visitors. Not 100% sure what the bookmakers are doing with their prices here, $2.30 for Sydney is crazy, they should be deep in the red for this. If you want to go a little safer, the $1.65 for the DNB looks very attractive.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Melbourne City 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.70
Melbourne City $5.25
Draw $4.50
Market Price:
Sydney $2.30 William Hill
Melbourne City $3.00 Everywhere
Draw $3.55 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.32
Melbourne City $4.08
Market Price
Sydney $1.65 William Hill
Melbourne City $2.21 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.10
Over $1.91
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.93 Palmerbet
Value: Sydney – Head to Head – $2.30.
Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.32.
Wellington Phoenix v Newcastle jets
Sunday 11 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
The first round for the 2015/16 A-League finished up in New Zealand on Sunday afternoon. Wellington host Newcastle in what will surely be the most one-sided match of the round. Wellington were very good last season, finishing in the top four, but I’m not 100% sure what happened when the Elimination Final rolled around. They were heavy favourites to beat Melbourne City and move to the Semi’s, but it didn’t turn out that way. They never looked likely in the match and ended up going down 2-0. They have a strong team and when playing at home they have a massive advantage, they should be in for another good season. Newcastle, hopefully they’ve changed things up in the off-season, only winning three games for the year wasn’t acceptable. I think they can do better than last season, but how much better, I don’t know. Wellington just wins this, doubt you’d find any tipster that could entertain any result other than a Wellington win. I don’t think Palmerbet will struggle to find punters to take the $1.94 off their hands; it’s a great price. Even the DNB at $1.34 looks a pretty good to me. And lastly, $1.78 for Over 2.5 Goals looks pretty generous, I think Wellington has a good chance of knocking that over on their own.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 3
Newcastle 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.52
Newcastle $7.24
Draw $4.95
Market Price:
Wellington $1.94 Palmerbet
Newcastle $4.50 Unibet
Draw $3.80 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.21
Newcastle $5.77
Market Price
Wellington $1.34 William Hill
Newcastle $3.40 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.06
Over $1.48
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Bet365
Over $1.78 Sportsbet
Value: Wellington – Head to Head – $1.94.
Wellington/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.78.
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.34.
