2015 Round 10 A-League Preview & Bets

It’s good to be doing a write-up following a very profitable week, it’s been a while since we’ve had a round like this, and it was much over due. Only the one downside to the weekend was the opening game on Thursday. Although I thought Melbourne City would win, I thought their price was too short, I was clearly wrong. They smashed Central Coast, winning 5-1, completely controlling the game from start to finish. After that it was all uphill, Friday night Sydney broke their poor run by beating Newcastle 1-0. They’re better than the one goal difference, but it’s a start after their struggles of late. Wellington hosted Melbourne Victory, and they looked a big price, and it paid off. It was always going to be a tough match for Melbourne Victory, and although they played well, they couldn’t quite finish off when they needed to. Western Sydney continued on their way, beating Brisbane 2-1. They’re probably the in form team in the league at the moment and I’m not surprised to see them at the top of the table. While there was no selection in the last match of the round, it was great to see Adelaide get their first win of the season. It has taken a lot longer than expected, and it was only a 1-0 win, but it might be what they needed to kick their season into gear. We’ve got a big round of six games this week, with Perth and Melbourne Victory making up for a game they missed earlier in the season. The highlight of the round is without a doubt Western Sydney and Melbourne Victory. I think Western Sydney have a great chance of toppling last seasons premiers and naming themselves as the team to beat this year. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 70 selections; I have had 24 winners, 39 losses and 7 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -14.62 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -20.89%. I’m going to be overseas for the next few weeks, I will still be providing weekly write-ups, but there will be lengthy delays to any questions you send through on twitter.

Enjoy.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value: 
1st:    Perth Glory/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70.
2nd:    Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $3.25.
3rd:    Perth Glory/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.65.
4th:    Adelaide United/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.87.

Adelaide United v Sydney FC

Friday 11 December, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

The round kicks off with Adelaide trying to make it back-to-back wins when they host Sydney on Friday night. It’s a quick back up for Adelaide after playing on Sunday, but they’ll be high on enthusiasm after getting their first win for the season. They hosted Perth, and it was a very winnable match, but I think they really doubted themselves, especially after such a good season last year. They won 1-0, and they really deserved all three points. It will get tougher from here, but hopefully they can continue to improve. Sydney broke their little slump too with a 1-0 win over Newcastle. Obviously this looks like it would have been an easy match for Sydney, and it should have been, but they hadn’t won any of their previous four matches, and were slipping down the ladder. That win should stabilize them, and they should be able to get back to their form from the start of the season. This should be a great match, think it will be pretty close, but I’m giving the nod to Adelaide. After their last win I think they can now go on with it. The price for Adelaide is almost good enough, but not quite. If they drift to $2.70 I think they’ll be worth a punt, but at the $2.60, I’m going to let them go around without me. I always love the Over/Under markets, and thankfully this week we have a few Over/Under selections, starting with this game. $1.87 for Over 2.5 Goals at Unibet seems a nice price to me, it’s not crazy value, but it’s enough for me to have a dabble, it looks the only option for this match.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        3
Sydney            1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $2.40
Sydney            $3.18
Draw            $3.71

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $2.60 Sportsbet
Sydney            $2.70 Bet365
Draw            $3.50 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.76
Sydney            $2.32

Market Price    
Adelaide        $1.87 Unibet
Sydney            $1.95 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.46
Over            $1.68

Market Price:    
Under            $2.00 Bet365
Over            $1.87 Unibet

Value:         Adelaide United/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.87.

Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 12 December, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Cazaly’s Stadium

Brisbane “host” Wellington up in Cairns this week in what looks a pretty one-sided match. Brisbane was very competitive last week when they headed down to Parramatta to take on Western Sydney. The Wanderers are now the league leaders, and although Brisbane did lose, it was only 2-1, and the scores were all tied up with only a quarter of an hour to play. Brisbane had more possession and more shots, giving them plenty to take out of the match. Wellington had one of the best performances of the round last week, they were hosting Melbourne Victory and managed to win all three points, which not many thought they could. While they struggled to keep the ball, when they did have it they knew what to do with it. They’re starting to play better and now have squeezed into a finals spot; they’ll want to push for a top 4 position now. Brisbane is usually pretty strong at home, and while this isn’t home, they do have a distinct advantage over the team travelling across from New Zealand. Once again those pesky bookmakers have gone up with markets basically the same as mine, Wellington’s price is ok, but not good enough to dive into. Unfortunately I think this game is best left alone.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane        2
Wellington        3
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.89
Wellington        $4.47
Draw            $4.03

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $1.92 Sportsbet, William Hill
Wellington        $4.20 Bet365
Draw            $3.65 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.42
Wellington        $3.36

Market Price    
Brisbane        $1.40 William Hill
Wellington        $3.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.31
Over            $1.76

Market Price: 
Under            $2.00 Bet365
Over            $1.81 Unibet

Value:         No value.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 12 December, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium

It’s great that the scheduling has this game on at prime time, 7:30pm on a Saturday, cause this will be a blockbuster. It’s the current two best teams in the league facing off for the top spot on the A-League ladder; it’s Western Sydney and Melbourne Victory. Western Sydney made it six wins on the trot last week when they took care of Brisbane. They hardly ever win by a big margin, and this was no different, but they know how to win. They took this game out 2-1, and while it was looking shaky for a while, Nichols hammered in one of the goals of the season to secure them the win. Melbourne Victory had won four in a row prior to last week, but unlike Western Sydney, they couldn’t keep the ball rolling. They travelled to New Zealand to match up with the Wellington, and it was never going to be an easy game. They ended up going down 2-0, which was very unexpected to most, but I thought was always a possibility as they are never as good on the road. This should be a decent match, both teams could easily win, but I think it’s Western Sydney’s chance to prove they belong at the top of the table by putting a gap between themselves and Melbourne Victory. I’m getting a little tired of calculating my ratings, only to see the bookie prices nearly identical, luckily there is some Over/Under action again that I’m interested in. It wouldn’t be a Melbourne Victory game without a few goals, and this should be no different, $1.78 for Over 2.5 Goals looks good enough for me.

Last 5 games:    
Western Sydney    0
Melbourne Victory    4
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $2.38
Melbourne Victory    $3.18
Draw            $3.76

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $2.40 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $3.00 Bet365, William Hill
Draw            $3.50 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.75
Melbourne Victory    $2.33

Market Price    
Western Sydney    $1.73 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $2.15 William hIll

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.65
Over            $1.61

Market Price:    
Under            $2.05 Bet365
Over            $1.78 Unibet

Value:         Western Sydney Wanderers/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.78.

Perth Glory v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 12 December, 9:40pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

If you’re tuning in from the east coast, we’ve got a late game for you here, it’s Central Coast and Perth and they’ll be kicking-off at 9:40pm AEDT. Perth is really struggling to find form this season, and that was evident last week when they played Adelaide who hadn’t won a game all season. Well Adelaide broke their maiden in their game with Perth, beating them 1-0. Perth really struggled to control possession and had goals peppered at them for most of the match. They’re now eight games in and only have one win and one draw to their name. The tale doesn’t read any better for Central Coast though, after nine matches, they’ve only won one game too. Their match was even worse last week, they hosted Melbourne City, who have been in good form, and got beaten 5-1, a terrible result, especially at home. I think Central Coast, Perth and Adelaide are all a level below the rest of the teams this season, and all three will really struggle to make finals. Perth should be able to get the better of Central Coast and double their win tally for the season, if they can’t win this, what could they possibly win? You know what they say, don’t back bad teams, and thankfully I don’t need to in this match, yet another game where the Head to Head prices match up with my rated prices. Thankfully again, the Over/Under market saves us, and gives us an interest in this bottom of the table battle. While we don’t have great offenses on show in this match, we do have a couple of the worst defenses, and that should lead to quite a few goals I’d imagine. I had the Over 2.5 Goals rated extremely short, and can’t see the match going any other way, I actually think it’s the best value of the round.

Last 5 games:  
Perth            3
Central Coast        1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.13
Central Coast        $3.66
Draw            $3.89

Market Price:  
Perth            $2.10 William Hill
Central Coast        $3.75 Bet365
Draw            $3.60 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $1.58
Central Coast        $2.72

Market Price  
Perth            $1.53 William Hill
Central Coast        $2.63 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.62
Over            $1.38

Market Price:    
Under            $2.13 Sportsbet
Over            $1.70 Bet365

Value:         Perth Glory/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70.

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City

Sunday 13 December, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Just one match this Sunday and it sees Melbourne City head north to take on Newcastle at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle is coming off a loss, but it was a pretty decent loss so it’s not all bad. It was away to Sydney, which is one of the trickiest fixtures on the calendar, and the fact they only went down 1-0 is a credit to them. Newcastle have not lost a game this season by more than one goal, which speaks volumes for how they have come on since last season, getting beaten, and often thrashed, week in week out. While they still have a lot to improve on, I think they can be competitive all season, especially when at home. Melbourne City, aren’t they in a rich vein of form, winning both of their last two games 5-1, albeit against the bottom two teams in the league. Last week it was Central Coast who felt the power of the Melbourne City forwards, and although we all expected Melbourne City to win, I don’t think many expected another hammering like this. Be interesting to see if they can continue this form for another week. I think this match will be closer than the market suggests, but I definitely have to go with Melbourne City, what they’ve shown the last two weeks, they’d be beating anybody at the moment. I don’t like saying it, but I think $4.33 is over the odds for Newcastle, their form, while not winning a lot, has been solid, and back at home I think they will be very tough to knock off. I do understand it’s pretty tough to back them against such an in form side, so the $3.00 in the Draw No Bet market might be the safer option.

Last 5 games:    
Newcastle        2
Melbourne City    2
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    

Newcastle        $3.42
Melbourne City    $2.29
Draw            $3.70

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $4.33 Bet365
Melbourne City    $1.90 Sportsbet
Draw            $3.75 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $2.49
Melbourne City    $1.67

Market Price  
Newcastle        $3.00 Bet365, Unibet
Melbourne City    $1.40 William hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.49
Over            $1.67

Market Price:    
Under            $2.12 Unibet
Over            $1.78 Sportsbet

Value:         Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $4.33.
Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $3.00.

Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory

Wednesday 16 December, 9:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

The round finishes up on Wednesday strangely enough, although it’s not really part of Round 10, it was a skipped match from earlier in the season. The teams on this quick backup are Perth and Melbourne Victory who both played on Saturday night. On Saturday Perth were good enough, they were playing Central Coast at home so anything but a win would have been disappointing, so they made sure they got the job done and won 2-1. They went into half time behind, so they were under pressure to make sure they got all three points, but thankfully they did. Melbourne Victory had a tough match against Western Sydney, who is now clearly proving themselves as the best team going around. They went down 2-0, but once again the stats were probably slightly in their favour, meaning they need to start finishing off better. It’s another match where I have to give it to the Melbourne side, but I do think they are poison odds at the $1.75 (and that’s the best available, most shorter). So yep, I’m tipping up another $4.00 shot to finish the round, Perth look strong enough to me to be able to take something out of this match, and hopefully it’s all three points. And again the Draw No Bet is always an option if you want something a little safer. But that’s not all, we also have some Over 2.5 Goals action in this match too, it’s short at $1.65, but I still think that represents good value.

Last 5 games:  
Perth            2
Melbourne Victory    1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth            $3.07
Melbourne Victory    $2.43
Draw            $3.82

Market Price:    
Perth            $4.00 Bet365, Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $1.75 Sportsbet
Draw            $3.75 Bet365, Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.27
Melbourne Victory    $1.79

Market Price  
Perth            $3.25 Bet365
Melbourne Victory    $1.33 Bet365, Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.17
Over            $1.46

Market Price:    
Under            $2.27 Sportsbet
Over            $1.65 Bet365

Value:         Perth Glory – Head to Head – $4.00.
Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $3.25.
Perth Glory/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.65.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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