2015 Round 11 A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

So Round 10 is all wrapped up (just) and there weren’t many surprises in it. Nearly all the favourites won, but there were a couple of teams that really reinforced their prominence in this league. The round opened on Friday with Adelaide trying to get their second win for the season against Sydney, after only getting their first the week before, and that’s exactly what they did. It’s good to see them starting to play some better football, but I think it also highlights how bad Sydney is going. Brisbane continued their good form with an expected win against Wellington. It was only 2-1, and they did have to come from behind, but they got all three points, and moved back up to second on the ladder. The big game of the weekend, Western Sydney and Melbourne Victory, the winner to sit clear at the top of the ladder. And it was Western Sydney that came out on top, clearly, winning 2-0. Western Sydney has been in great form over the last two months and that put the cherry on top. I think they are now the team to beat, at home I would still select Melbourne Victory, but now that Western Sydney are clear above them on the table, they should get all the breaks. Perth beat up Central Coast 2-1, no big surprises there other than the fact that I thought Perth might win easier, but their form has been pretty average of late, and I can’t see them winning away from home any time soon. The other big play of the weekend was Melbourne City, everyone expected them to beat Newcastle, and so they did, but it was the way they did it. It was a slow start, but they ended up running out 4-0 winners. That takes their tally to 14 goals from the last 3 matches, we might need to check the record books because I can’t remember seeing a team score so many goals in the space of a few games. They are really turning it on ahead of the big Melbourne Derby this week. Perth and Melbourne faced off for their postponed match on Wednesday and this resulted in probably the biggest surprise of the round as Perth came away with an unexpected 1-0 win. It’s Perth’s first win for quite a few weeks; maybe they can build on that. Round 11 kicks off and it’s another exciting one, the clear highlight is the Melbourne Derby, with City in white-hot form, and Victory a little off the boil of late, and it should be a real blockbuster. The support card is good too with what looks like some tight fixtures. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 78 selections; I have had 28 winners, 43 losses and 7 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -11.80 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -15.13%.

I’m still overseas so sorry for any delays in twitter replies.

Cheers
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Wellington Phoenix/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
2nd:    Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $3.00.
3rd:    Central Coast Mariners/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
4th:    Perth Glory/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.87.

Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United

Friday 18 December, 8:40pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Isn’t this a cracker to start off the round (that’s sarcasm if you didn’t pick it up), we have Newcastle hosting Adelaide, who is looking to make it three on the trot. Melbourne City pumped Newcastle last week, they went down 4-0, but Central Coast and Perth lost by 4 goals to City too over the last few weeks, so they aren’t the only ones. The real issue is how it happened, they were actually playing pretty competitively for the first half, but during the second half their was a short spurt which allowed Melbourne City to put together three goals in quick succession. Newcastle has been playing ok at times, but lapses in defense like that keep costing them. Adelaide got their second win for the season last week, making it two in a row. They were up against Sydney who have really dropped off over the last six weeks or so, and have been struggling for form. Non-the-less, it was good to see Adelaide get another win. Off the back of Adelaide’s last two matches, they get the tick of approval here, but they do need to keep that form, if it drops off again like previously, who knows how bad they might play. Well this is a boring way to start the round, but as you can see below, my rated prices, and the market prices are nearly exactly the same, which means there isn’t really any value in the match. The closest thing to value would be the Over 2.5 Goals, but the price isn’t quite good enough for me.

Last 5 games:    
Newcastle        2
Adelaide        2
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $3.75
Adelaide        $2.14
Draw            $3.76

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $3.80 Bet365
Adelaide        $2.00 Sportsbet, Palmerbet, Unibet
Draw            $3.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $2.75
Adelaide        $1.57

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $2.75 Bet365
Adelaide        $1.47 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.45
Over            $1.69

Market Price:    
Under            $2.03 Palmerbet
Over            $1.80 Bet365

Value:         No value.

Wellington Phoenix v Sydney FC

Saturday 19 December, 6:15pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

We jump over to New Zealand on Saturday to catch Wellington playing host to Sydney. Wellington couldn’t get the job done against Brisbane last week, they were playing well, and even lead with 20 odd minutes left, but couldn’t seal the deal and ended up coming away with nothing. They lost 2-1, and when leading that late in the game, it’s a pretty disappointing effort. At this stage they’re really struggling to win away from home and are starting to drop down the ladder. Sydney, another loss for them, they have been in pretty average form, and their main issue is scoring goals, they’re having a lot of trouble doing it. I’m actually surprised how high on the ladder they still are; I think it’s those four draws that have kept them thereabouts. This is a really tough match to split the two teams; it really could easily go either way. If I had to pick a team I’d go Wellington, I think being played in New Zealand might give them just enough of an edge over Sydney. Once again the market and my ratings are basically the same, meaning there is no value in the regular markets. Thankfully this time there is some in the Over/Under options though. I actually rated Over 2.5 Goals very short, right down at $1.54, but the market has this out at $1.95 with Bet365. Really doubt this price will stay around long because that was a bit better than the other bookies were offering. Anyway, that looks like the best option out of this fixture to me.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington        1
Sydney            3
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $2.54
Sydney            $2.93
Draw            $3.76

Market Price:    
Wellington        $2.50 Unibet
Sydney            $2.80 Everywhere
Draw            $3.50 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $1.87
Sydney            $2.15

Market Price:    
Wellington        $1.80 Bet365
Sydney            $2.00 Sportsbet, William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.84
Over            $1.54

Market Price: 
Under            $1.98 Unibet
Over            $1.95 Bet365

Value:         Wellington Phoenix/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 19 December, 8:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The big game of the weekend, the one we’re all waiting for, the Melbourne Derby. Melbourne City is coming off yet another scintillating performance, this time against Newcastle. After a slow start, they ended up toying with them, winning 4-0. That’s the third game in succession that they have won by four goals, some type of achievement. They’ve struggled in the Derby of the last few years, but I think they are in their best form that they have been in for a long time, so this could be their chance. Melbourne Victory played Perth on Wednesday and they were pretty disappointing, losing 1-0. That’s three losses on the trot for Melbourne Victory, they still look a strong team, but they’ll want to turn things around sooner rather than later. Tight match, Melbourne City are quickly climbing through the ratings, but I still think Melbourne Victory have a little bit on them, and can come away with another Derby win. I’m starting to get tired of this, but obviously my ratings are very similar to the bookies’ and our prices are the same again. There doesn’t look to be anything worthwhile, so maybe just sit back and enjoy what should be a cracking game.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    1
Melbourne Victory    4
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $3.10
Melbourne Victory    $2.43
Draw            $3.76

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.80 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $2.40 Everywhere
Draw            $3.70 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Melbourne City    $2.28
Melbourne Victory    $1.78

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.00 Bet365, William Hill
Melbourne Victory    $1.76 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.46
Over            $1.68

Market Price:  
Under            $2.40 Bet365
Over            $1.57 Unibet

Value:         No value.

Perth Glory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 19 December, 10:40pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

We’ve got a late game for east coast fans as Western Sydney head over west to take on Perth. Perth only played last Wednesday against Melbourne Victory and surprisingly came away with all three points. I definitely thought they were right in the match (and actually had them as a selection) but they were definite underdogs in the fixture. They’ll need to put together more performances like that if they want to drag themselves up the ladder after an average start to the season. Western Sydney is coming off a meeting with Melbourne Victory. They came out of the game big winners putting themselves clear at the top of the table. They are quickly becoming the team to beat, and that win is as good as any this season. This match is really tight, I could barely split them, but as it is my job to make a selection, I’ll do it, I’ve got Perth just favourite. Don’t get me wrong, Western Sydney has a great chance too, but I think Perth should be very slight favourites. Bookmakers have surely over-reacted to Western Sydney’s recent form; they have gone up odds-on for them in this match, which looks completely wrong too me. The $4.00 for Perth Head to Head looks great, but I think the $3.00 with money back if it ends in a Draw is the best way to attack this match. There should be a few goals too, so Over 2.5 Goals looks enticing as well.

Last 5 games:    
Perth            3
Western Sydney    1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Perth            $2.55
Western Sydney    $2.89
Draw            $3.81

Market Price:  
Perth            $4.00 Bet365
Western Sydney    $1.92 William Hill
Draw            $3.60 Bet365, Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $1.88
Western Sydney    $2.13

Market Price:    
Perth            $3.00 William Hill
Western Sydney    $1.40 Bet365, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    

Under            $2.72
Over            $1.58

Market Price:    
Under            $1.95 Bet365
Over            $1.87 Unibet

Value:         Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $3.00.
Perth Glory – Head to Head – $4.00.
Perth Glory/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.87.

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar

Sunday 20 December, 6:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

We finish up Round 11 at Bluetongue Stadium on Sunday afternoon as Central Coast host Brisbane. Central Coast made the long trip West to take on Perth last week and unfortunately for them came back empty handed. They only lost 2-1 and actually led up to half time, so they went ok, but got over run in the second half. They’ve really dropped the ball this season, and are now bottom of the table. Brisbane’s match also finished 2-1, but they were on the right end of the score line. They were technically hosting Wellington, even though the game was played at Cazaly’s Stadium, so they were expected to win, anything less would have been a letdown. That win boosts them up to second on the ladder and shows how good they have been playing. Brisbane really should be winning this one, they have the form on the board, and while they can find travelling difficult sometimes, they should be good enough to land the points. Wow, how have bookies gone up $1.95 (at best) for Brisbane; they are good, but not that good. Central Coast is still clearly in this match and the fact you can get $4.00 for them shocks me. I think they are good value, but their lack of winning makes me prefer them with the Draw No Bet option. The best value in the match is the Over 2.5 Goals in my eyes though, if you only want to take one thing out of the match, I reckon it’s the best option.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        1
Brisbane        3
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $3.43
Brisbane        $2.30
Draw            $3.65

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $4.00 William Hill
Brisbane        $1.95 Unibet
Draw            $3.60 Bet365, Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  

Central Coast        $2.49
Brisbane        $1.67

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $2.85 Sportsbet
Brisbane        $1.43 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.49
Over            $1.40

Market Price:    
Under            $2.10 Bet365, Sportsbet
Over            $1.71 Unibet

Value:         Central Coast Mariners/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
Central Coast – Head to Head – $4.00.
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.85.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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