2015 Round 13 A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

The Christmas round was a good one for us here, of the five selections three landed, and the other two were $7.00 and $9.00 long shots, so as expected they didn’t come in, but still think they were over the odds. Pretty standard set of match results last week, with the favourites winning all but one game.  Western Sydney kicked things off on Christmas Eve and easily took care of Newcastle 2-0. I don’t think anyone doubted this result as the league leaders have been in good form. On Boxing Day we had another couple of short priced favourites get the chocolates, both Adelaide and Sydney wining the respective matches. Without much fuss either, both teams winning by three goals. Brisbane hosted Melbourne City who had been on fire recently, but Brisbane have been in decent form themselves and went into the match as favourites. They ended up winning the match fairly easily, 3-1, but one of their goals was right at the death. The only surprise of the round was when Melbourne Victory hosted Perth. Melbourne Victory has been in a form slump the last month, but most expected them to bounce back with this “easy” fixture. It wasn’t to be though, they took the lead relatively early in the game and help that one goal margin for the better part on an hour, but Castro ruined their day leaving both teams with one point from the match. It’s onto the last round of the calendar year; well it actually runs over 2015 and 2016. We’ve got a game on NYE if you haven’t made any plans, and a game on NYD if you don’t have too much of a hangover  It’s quite a tough round, and even though there are a few odds-on favourites, I think there’s a chance for a couple surprises this week. The round is really void of any major “highlights”, but I think Melbourne Victory playing away to Newcastle might be interesting, Victory are in a real form decline, and a loss here could be dangerous times ahead for their management. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 90 selections; I have had 32 winners, 50 losses and 8 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -15.63 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -17.37%.

I’m still overseas, so sorry for any delays in twitter replies.

Happy New Years everyone!
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.30.
2nd:   Western Sydney Wanderers/Adelaide United – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85.
3rd:    Western Sydney Wanders – Head to Head – $1.90.
4th:    Melbourne City/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.

Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix

Thursday 31 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

So it’s the last game for the calendar year and it’s a…. well a pretty boring match, but we’ll preview it anyway, it’s Central Coast hosting Wellington. Central Coast is coming off another loss, that’s six in a row now, this time it was at the hands of Sydney. And it wasn’t just a loss, they were torn apart, again, losing 4-1. It was 3-0 at the half hour mark, so the game looked like it was already over when there was still an hour to play. Shortly after that they clawed one goal back, but never really looked like threatening at all. While they did manage to hold a decent amount of possession, they only had the one shot on target (Ascroft’s goal). Things just look to be going from bad to worse for the Mariners, I can’t see them getting off the bottom of the ladder any time soon. Wellington, well they didn’t really fair any better on their trip to Adelaide last week. Things didn’t start well with Adelaide being gifted an own goal, and from there it was further down hill. Adelaide managed to put another couple of goals on Wellington, leaving the final score at 3-0. Tough game this one, I have to give the advantage to Wellington, because it’s basically impossible to tip Central Coast at the moment. For once I’m actually thankful that bookmakers and my prices match up, so that there is no value in the game, I wouldn’t really want to be selecting either of these teams in this match. I’d suggest sitting this one out, and go out and have a fun New Years Eve.

Last 5 games:  
Central Coast        0
Wellington        3
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $3.52
Wellington        $2.28
Draw            $3.62

Market Price:  
Central Coast        $3.10 Bet365
Wellington        $2.38 Bet365
Draw            $3.50 William Hill, Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $2.55
Wellington        $1.65

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $2.11 Sportsbet
Wellington        $1.72 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.38
Over            $1.73

Market Price:  
Under            $2.23 Unibet
Over            $1.70 Bet365

Value:         No value.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United

Friday 1 January, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium

Table toppers Western Sydney host the recently in form Adelaide on New Years Day. Western Sydney just keeps playing good football week in, week out. Last week it was Newcastle that they faced, and unsurprisingly they came away with all three points. In their usual style, they didn’t smash the opposition with goals, but just did enough to get the win. They ended up pulling out a 2-0, fairly typical for them, allowing them to hold their position at the top of the table. Adelaide also had a fairly easy match last week; theirs was at home to Wellington. Adelaide started a pretty short priced favourite and deservedly so, even though their early season form was poor, over the last month they have been very good. They beat Wellington 3-0, which takes them to three wins and a draw from their last four matches. They’re climbing up the table, and are now within a game of a finals position. Even though Adelaide have been playing good, Western Sydney is arguably the best team in the league right now, and when they play at home, they are nearly unstoppable. I doubt they’ll have any trouble taking care of Adelaide and expect the usual one or two goal win from them. Actually surprised that Sportsbet has gone up $1.90 for Western Sydney, I thought they should be much shorter, I rated them at $1.72. $1.90 is a luxury price and I think that will be snapped up quick, it’s definitely the way to go here. I also think that the Over 2.5 Goals is good value too, I reckon Adelaide can score, which means if Western Sydney is to get the win it will have to go Over 2.5 Goals.

Last 5 games:    
Western Sydney    1
Adelaide        2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.72
Adelaide        $5.46
Draw            $4.27

Market Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.90 Sportsbet
Adelaide        $4.25 William Hill
Draw            $3.65 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.31
Adelaide        $4.18

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.37 Sportsbet
Adelaide        $3.10 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:  
Under            $2.49
Over            $1.67

Market Price:    
Under            $1.98 Unibet
Over            $1.85 Bet365

Value:         Western Sydney Wanders – Head to Head – $1.90.
Western Sydney Wanderers/Adelaide United – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85.    

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Saturday 2 January, 5:15 (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane tries to jump up to the top of the table as they host Perth on Saturday afternoon. Brisbane has been in solid form the last few weeks but they really put the writing on the wall last round when they played Melbourne City. Now they were at home, and did start a deserved favourite, but Melbourne City had been in cracking form, so no one knew what to expect. It was a tough assignment for them, but they came through it in flying colours. They won the match 3-1, and after being 2-0 ahead at half time always looked to have enough in the bag to get them all three points. They have now kicked a game clear of the teams in third and fourth on the ladder and are just waiting for Western Sydney to slip up to they can jump to the top. Even though Perth is second bottom on the table, their recent form has been solid. Last week they travelled to Melbourne to take on Victory, and most (myself included) didn’t really give them any hope, but that didn’t stop them. They went a goal down early in the game and anyone giving them a chance prior to kickoff pretty much wrote them off at that point, but they came back with a late goal from Castro to get a share of the points. They only had 36% of possession, so to get a draw out of the game is a great effort. They’ve now had a win and two draws from their past three games, with the other draw being against Western Sydney. There’s no doubt about it, Brisbane should be winning this one, they’ve got too much class, and it’s at Suncorp, they’ll be extremely tough to draw against, let alone beat. But I can’t believe they are $1.55 at best, I rated them $1.72, and I thought that was pretty short. So the flipside of that is I rated Perth $5.34, and you can get $6.50 about them, that’s enticing to me. And even more so, the $5.10 for money back if it’s a draw. So don’t get me wrong, I think Brisbane should be winning this match, but at the current prices I have to be going with Perth.

Last 5 games:  
Brisbane        2
Perth            1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.72
Perth            $5.34
Draw            $4.33

Market Price:  
Brisbane        $1.55 William Hill
Perth            $6.50 Bet365
Draw            $4.40 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.32
Perth            $4.10

Market Price:  
Brisbane        $1.18 Bet365, William Hill
Perth            $5.10 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.13
Over            $1.89

Market Price:    
Under            $2.12 Unibet
Over            $1.71 Sportsbet

Value:         Perth Glory – Head to Head – $6.50.
Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $5.10.

Melbourne City v Sydney FC

Saturday 2 January, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Saturday night at AAMI Park we get to see Melbourne City face Sydney. Melbourne City is coming off their first loss in six weeks as they struggled when travelling to Brisbane. They didn’t start well by giving away an own goal half an hour into the match. They then allowed Brisbane to score in their own right under ten minutes later. At this stage it looked like the game could be all over, but they managed to pull a goal back to trail 2-1. They couldn’t seem to strum up another goal though, and then let one in late to finish the game 3-1. It was one of their hardest matches to date, so a loss there isn’t a big deal, they did start the underdogs. Sydney came out guns blazing last week against Central Coast. They found the back of the net four times, and only let one in, giving them a big three-goal winning margin. At this stage of the season Central Coast is easily the worst team, so playing them at home you’d hope for a result like that, but they got it done which is the main thing. I’ve got no doubt Melbourne City can bounce back this week and win the game, and win it easily. I rated Melbourne City very short, $1.77, so when I seen that Unibet had them marked at $2.30 I nearly fell off my chair. I think that is a fantastic price, and have it as my best value of the week.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    1
Sydney            2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.77
Sydney            $4.75
Draw            $4.46

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.30 Unibet
Sydney            $3.25 Bet365
Draw            $3.50 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.37
Sydney            $3.69

Market Price:  
Melbourne City    $1.64 Unibet
Sydney            $2.33 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.77
Over            $1.56

Market Price:    
Under            $2.15 Palmerbet
Over            $1.71 Sportsbet

Value:         Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.30.
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.64.
Melbourne City/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 3 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

The round finishes up on Sunday with the struggling Melbourne Victory facing Newcastle at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle is coming off a 2-0 away loss to Western Sydney. Not much to say about the game, no one expected them to win, and a two-goal loss seems about right. Western Sydney is in cracking form, so when you play them at Parramatta Stadium it’s almost impossible to come away with anything. Newcastle managed to hold a decent amount of possession and got quite a few shots away, so not all bad, but they were never really in the game. Melbourne Victory are really struggling at the moment, they haven’t won any of their past four games, of which includes last week draw to Perth when at home. There really was no excuse for them to only come away with one point from this home. On paper they are a much better team, but lately things haven’t been going to plan and that was evident in the 1-1 draw. I keep on saying it, but if things don’t change, and Melbourne Victory keeps slipping down the ladder, it’s hard to see the management team holding their rolls. Obviously I’ve got to tip Melbourne Victory, they’re the far superior team, but it would take a brave man to back them, I don’t think this game is any easier than last week for them. I hate doing this, but I think Newcastle is value at $5.25, but probably even more so at $3.90 in the Draw No Bet market. Melbourne Victory’s form has been average, and there is nothing to say that has changed, so I think it’s worth taking a chance on Newcastle, but I’m sure I’ll live to regret those words.

Last 5 games:    
Newcastle        2
Melbourne Victory    1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $4.40
Melbourne Victory    $1.89
Draw            $4.09

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $5.25 Bet365
Melbourne Victory    $1.72 William Hill
Draw            $3.85 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Newcastle        $3.33
Melbourne Victory    $1.43

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $3.90 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $1.30 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.18
Over            $1.84

Market Price:    
Under            $2.12 Unibet
Over            $1.73 Bet365

Value:         Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $5.25.
Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $3.90.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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