So the A-League season kicked off last week and there were a few surprise results. Maybe a few of those teams that had to turn things around from last season have managed to do just that. Interestingly, none of the teams who finished in the top five last season managed to land three points in their opening game of the season. On the punting side it was an up and down round. We nailed the Over/Under markets, with all four selections getting the chocolates, but on the flipside, the Head to Head picks didn’t do very well at all. I think that I’ve learned which teams have improved and hopefully this week we’ll have more luck with those selections.
Let’s have a look at last week’s games. The round started off with one of the bigger upsets of the week. Western Sydney hosted Brisbane and I thought that they should be winning the match, or at east getting a point out of it, but Brisbane overpowered them big time and ended up running out comfortable 3-1 victors. Maybe Brisbane is finding their form of from two seasons ago that abandoned them last year.
The big Adelaide/Melbourne Victory game was a little bit of a let down, while it was a very close game, the fact that it ended 0-0 always takes a little of the excitement out of it. But being that it was played in Adelaide, I guess the first punch goes to Melbourne Victory for landing an away point. Another team that looks to have regained some of their 2013/14 form is Central Coast, they were terrible last season but came out with a bang beating Perth 3-2. They dominated the game and that score line probably down plays how well they played. Sydney hosted Melbourne City and I was really expecting Sydney to blow them away, but to the visitor’s credit, they played a strong game of football. They even lead early until Sydney dragged back a goal to end the game 1-1. Sydney at home was a terribly tough fixture on the calendar for teams last season, but maybe it’s not going to be quite so difficult this time around.
The biggest shock of the round had to be the game played in New Zealand. Newcastle headed over there to face Wellington in a match that looked like it was going to be all one way. Newcastle, who only managed a handful of wins all last season, have got the ball rolling with a win first up. And it was an impressive win, the score ended up 2-1, but Wellington’s goal actually came due to an own goal. Have Newcastle picked up their game, or has Wellington really dropped the ball in the off-season?
Onto Round 2, hopefully we get some better results than last week (even though it wasn’t that bad). Unfortunately there appears to be only one game with value in the Over/Under market, which is where our best results came from last week so we’ll have to make do with some Head to Head and Draw No Bet selections.
Happy punting everyone.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.00.
2nd: Brisbane – Head to Head – $1.88.
3rd: Perth/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.00.
4th: Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.50.
Adelaide United v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 16 October, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
We head to Adelaide again this Friday, this time to see them host a slightly easier opponent in Western Sydney. I’m not sure what to make of Adelaide’s efforts last week, I honestly thought they’d beat Melbourne Victory, but bookies had the two evenly split, and they were bang on with the game finishing 0-0. Both teams only had 2 shots on target each, so the level of defense from both sides was of the highest, and while they would of loved three points, I think they’d be happy enough sharing the points with last season’s champs. Western Sydney is another team I expected more out of last week, but their performance was less admirable. They were hosting Brisbane, and that’s as good a chance as any to get some early points on the board, but they did far from that. Allowing a goal in the first ten minutes, they always looked to be on the back foot. They ended up being blown away and lost 3-1, a match they’ll quickly want to forget. Adelaide have a strong team and played pretty well last week, Western Sydney’s team is lacking depth and is coming off an average effort in Round 1, you can see where this one is heading. It’s hard to see Western Sydney getting close to Adelaide; they should be able to comfortably lock in their first win of the campaign. Unibet have gone up with $1.83 for Adelaide and I think that is more than enough of a price to get involved, other bookies are less, but anything $1.75+ is value I think.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Western Sydney 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.57
Western Sydney $6.80
Draw $4.67
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.83 Unibet
Western Sydney $4.50 William Hill
Draw $3.75 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.23
Western Sydney $5.35
Market Price
Adelaide $1.34 Unibet
Western Sydney $3.30 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.01
Over $1.99
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365
Over $1.80 Bet365, Unibet
Value: Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.83.
Newcastle Jets v Sydney FC
Saturday 17 October, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
Sunday afternoon see’s an all NSW match-up at Hunter Stadium as Newcastle hosts Sydney. Newcastle is backing up after a great game six days ago against Wellington in New Zealand. After an extremely poor 2014/15 season they knew they had to come out of the gates firing this time around, and boy did they. An away win against Wellington would have been unheard of from them last season, but maybe this is a new, Newcastle. They won 2-1 with the goal going against them coming from a poor defensive error, non-the-less, they pretty much dominated the game. Sydney let their supporters down last week after only managing to get one point out of their home fixture against Melbourne City. Now lots of people are touting Melbourne City as a contender, so it might not have been that bad a performance, but based off both teams from the end of last season, Sydney would have been very disappointed about only getting a draw out of a home fixture against Melbourne City. There’s a long time between one season and another, and maybe over the coming weeks my opinion might change, but at this stage I still have to weigh these teams up as the teams from the end of last season, one played in the Grand Final, the other won the Wooden Spoon. Off that I have to think that Sydney will bounce back this week and get the win. After Sydney’s game last week I’m not overly surprised that the corporates are letting you on a little, but the better than even money at Sportsbet looks too good to resist. I think $1.50 for them in the Draw No Bet market looks a bit generous too.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 0
Sydney 1
Draw 4
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $4.83
Sydney $1.80
Draw $4.21
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.75 Bet365
Sydney $2.05 Sportsbet
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $3.68
Sydney $1.37
Market Price
Newcastle $2.65 Unibet
Sydney $1.50 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.45
Over $1.69
Market Price:
Under $2.06 Unibet
Over $1.78 Sportsbet
Value: Sydney – Head to Head – $2.05.
Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.50.
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
Saturday 17 October, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium
This is the big-ticket game for the weekend, the Melbourne Derby; it’s quickly becoming the biggest rivalry in Australian football. Melbourne Victory was in Adelaide last weekend, and while they didn’t get the result they were hoping for, they still came home with a solitary point. It was a hard fought match with minimal scoring opportunities, and that showed as the game ended a 0-0 draw. Adelaide does look a strong team this season, so getting out of there with a draw is a pretty decent result in my books. Melbourne City impressed me last week, they faced Sydney away, and that’s one of the toughest road matches going around. They couldn’t quite snatch a win, but it looked a chance after they nabbed the lead early in the game. Sydney got a goal back to tie things up, and that’s the way the match ended. A draw was probably the best Melbourne City could of hoped for from that fixture. While Melbourne City are on the improve, their across town rivals look like they’ll be far too good for them this time around. Melbourne Victory is so hard to beat at home, and being their first home game of the season, their fans will be out in force. I was pleasantly surprised when I seen William Hill put Melbourne Victory up at $2.00, I had them marked a lot shorter, right down at $1.55. Obviously I think the $1.50 for them in the Draw No Bet market is great value too.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Melbourne City 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.55
Melbourne City $6.65
Draw $4.87
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.00 William Hill
Melbourne City $4.00 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw $3.80 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.23
Melbourne City $5.28
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.50 William Hill
Melbourne City $2.93 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.51
Over $1.66
Market Price:
Under $2.16 Unibet
Over $1.70 Bet365
Value: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.00.
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.50.
Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 18 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
On Sunday Central Coast head north to take on Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium. The home side is coming off a cracking performance against Western Sydney last week. They were playing away, but they didn’t let that faze them. They opened up the scoring within the first ten minutes as Maclaren scored the first goal of the 2015/16 season. They kept the pressure on, and ended up taking out the game 3-1. Western Sydney’s defense was pretty average, but I don’t want that to take away from their efforts, they were top shelf. Central Coast was the only other side to score three goals last week, there’s came against their match-up with Perth. They controlled their game from the get-go too scoring early, Perth came back to tie it up, but then a couple of second half goals to Ferreira put the nail in the coffin for Perth. Perth got a consolidation goal late, but that didn’t really reflect the game. Back at home Brisbane will be even stronger, they look like they are finding their old form, and if they are, it will be hard for any team to beat them, especially at Suncorp. I know it’s short, but it’s hard to ignore the $1.88 that William Hill have gone up with, for what looks a very one-sided match, that appears to be great price.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 3
Central Coast 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.54
Central Coast $7.32
Draw $4.66
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.88 William Hill
Central Coast $4.50 Unibet
Draw $3.75 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.21
Central Coast $5.75
Market Price
Brisbane $1.36 Bet365, William Hill
Central Coast $3.35 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.48
Over $1.68
Market Price:
Under $2.08 Bet365
Over $1.82 Sportsbet
Value: Brisbane – Head to Head – $1.88.
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.36.
Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 18 October, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
The weekend finishes up over in Western Australia as Wellington make the longest road trip of the season to face Perth. It was hard to know what to make of Perth’s game last week, losing 3-2 away isn’t the worst result, but it was to Central Coast, and they never looked convincing throughout the game. They did find the back of the net twice, so that is worth something, but their defense had big gaps in it. Wellington were the biggest flop of Round 1 in my opinion, they hosted Newcastle, and that is a fixture that you’d have marked down in your calendar as three points. Not only did they not get the three points, they didn’t even get one, they ended up losing 2-1. To make things worse, their only goal came in the form of an own goal. After a great season last year from Perth, I expect them to build on that this year, and this is their chance to do just that. Back at home they have no excuses this week, if they don’t put in a good performance questions will be asked. I’m pretty happy with anything better than evens for Perth, and the $2.25 at Bet365 is just that. Also keen on what looks the only value in an Under/Over market this weekend. Under 2.5 Goals looks a steal at $2.00, by the end of the weekend that will surely tighten up.
Last 5 games:
Perth 3
Wellington 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.89
Wellington $4.47
Draw $4.03
Market Price:
Perth $2.25 Bet365
Wellington $3.30 Bet365
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.42
Wellington $3.63
Market Price
Perth $1.59 Unibet
Wellington $2.36 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.68
Over $2.46
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.87 Sportsbet
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $2.25.
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.59.
Perth/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.00.
