2015 Round 5 A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

So last week quickly bought me back down to earth, after an amazing Round 3, Round 4 was a strike out, five selections and not one of them landed. Worst part was all but one of the predicted teams to win won, but that doesn’t mean the bets went the same way.

The weekend started off on Friday night with the only real shock of the round. After leading 2-0 ten minutes into the second half, Melbourne City somehow managed to completely throw the game away, losing 3-2. I had Melbourne City as my only Head to Head selection of the week, so after that happened I knew it was going to be tough week.

Saturday we had a couple of games, Sydney/Central Coast and Brisbane/Adelaide. Sydney had to travel to Bluetongue Stadium, but they had little trouble with Central Coast, beating them 3-1. Brisbane had a similar result winning 3-0; unfortunately their third goal came during injury time, just in time to ruin my Under 2.5 Goals bet.

Western Sydney pulled out a strong win on Sunday when they hosted Perth. It wasn’t a walk in the park for them, but it never looked like it was going to be. A goal at the 45-minute mark gave them the lead, and they held that margin to the final whistle.

On Melbourne Cup Eve Melbourne Victory hosted Wellington in a rather one-sided affair. Victory scored early, and then bagged another couple early into the second half, by this stage the game was well out of Wellington’s grasp. The game finished at 3-0.

While there is five games this round, one of them is postponed (Perth/Melbourne Victory) until December, so we’ll only be looking at four games this week.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going, this week caused them to take a nosedive, but it’s still in the positive. Of the 36 selections; I have had 19 winners, 15 losses and 2 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) +2.48 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of +6.89%.

Best of luck.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value:
1st:    Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.20.
2nd:    Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
3rd:    Sydney – Head to Head – $2.20.
4th:    Adelaide/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.

Adelaide United v Melbourne City

Thursday 5 November, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

It’s an early start to Round 4 as we head over to Adelaide on Thursday night to see Adelaide take on Melbourne City.  Adelaide went pretty poor last week, they played Brisbane away, so it was always going to be a hard game for them to get much out of, but they ended up losing 3-0. We’re now four rounds in and they are still yet to win a match; it’s a far cry from their form last season. Melbourne City is coming off one of the biggest chokes I’ve seen in a while, they were 2-0 up against Newcastle with only about 30 minutes to go, and I’m still not sure how, but they ended up losing 3-2. To make things worse they were a very short priced favourite for the match. Adelaide has a golden chance to break-through with a win this week. While they haven’t been winning, they have been playing ok. Anything over even money is a steal for Adelaide, they should be able to control this match pretty easily and take care of Melbourne City. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a high score line either, so Over 2.5 Goals looks a good play as well.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        2
Melbourne City    1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.90
Melbourne City    $4.56
Draw            $3.93

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $2.30 Everywhere
Melbourne City    $3.00 Bet365, William Hill
Draw            $3.50 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.42
Melbourne City    $3.40

Market Price 
Adelaide        $1.68 William Hill
Melbourne City    $2.20 Bet365, Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.81
Over            $1.55

Market Price:
Under            $2.02 Unibet
Over            $1.80 Bet365

Value:         Adelaide – Head to Head – $2.30.
Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.68.
Adelaide/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.

Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Friday 6 November, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

It’s only early in the season but it’s a top of the table clash as Brisbane head south to take on Sydney. Coming off another strong performance, Sydney dismantled Central Coast last week. While it wasn’t a clean sheet for them, they were never in doubt, winning the game 3-0. They have continued their strong form and at this stage look the team to beat. Brisbane having been playing great too, they were just as impressive last week beating Adelaide 3-0. They took the lead early, and then held that 1-0 margin for over an hour, before knocking in a couple of late goals to blow the match apart. Being the top two teams you’ve think this would be closer, but I think Sydney should clearly get the better of Brisbane. They are very strong at home, and rarely drop points when at Allianz. I think you can back Sydney in both markets; they look to be value across the board. Another game that looks destined to have plenty of attacking, so Over 2.5 Goals is another tasty option.

Last 5 games:    
Sydney            2
Brisbane        1
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $1.79
Brisbane        $4.86
Draw            $4.25

Market Price:    
Sydney            $2.20 Bet365
Brisbane        $3.40 Sportsbet
Draw            $3.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $1.37
Brisbane        $3.72

Market Price  
Sydney            $1.57 William Hill
Brisbane        $2.42 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.94
Over            $1.52

Market Price:    
Under            $2.10 Unibet
Over            $1.80 Sportsbet

Value:         Sydney – Head to Head – $2.20.
Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.57.
Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.

Newcastle Jets v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 7 November, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Only one game this Saturday, and it’s an all NSW affair, Newcastle hosting Western Sydney. Newcastle is coming off a great win against Melbourne City last week. They were down 2-0, and somehow made a comeback to take all three points, winning the match 3-2. Their form this season has been quite astonishing considering how they went last year. Western Sydney is also coming into this game with some solid form. They hosted Perth last week, and while it’s not the toughest fixture going around, they held good possession and won their match 1-0. It was their first win of the season, so they’ll be coming into this game with some confidence you’d think. It’s been a while since I’ve said this, but I think Newcastle should be winning this match. It’s by no means a lock, and looks one of the tighter games of the weekend, but they should be even stronger this week back at home and able to continue on their winning way. $3.10 is more than generous for Newcastle in this match-up, they should be closer to the $2.50 range I think, and even the $2.20 with money back for a draw is good value.

Last 5 games: 
Newcastle                   2
Western Sydney         0
Draw                           3

Head to Head

Rated Price:   
Newcastle                   $2.43

Western Sydney         $3.14
Draw                           $3.70

Market Price: 
Newcastle                   $3.10 Bet365
Western Sydney         $2.35 Sportsbet
Draw                           $3.50 William Hill

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:   
Newcastle                   $1.78
Western Sydney         $2.29

Market Price  
Newcastle                   $2.20 Bet365
Western Sydney         $1.83 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.06
Over                            $1.94

Market Price: 
Under                          $1.83 Unibet
Over                            $2.00 Bet365

Value:    
Newcastle – Head to Head – $3.10.
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.20.

Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix

Sunday 8 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Wellington is on the road again this week, this time they are facing Central Coast at Bluetongue Stadium. Central Coast didn‘t give their fans much to cheer about last week when they put up a pretty poor performance against Sydney at home. They ended up losing 3-1, the game was all tied up with ten minutes to play, but a couple of goals from Simon put an end to that. So far their season is looking pretty average, they’ll need to turn their form around if they want a better result than last year. Wellington was probably even worse last week, they lost 3-0 to Melbourne Victory, and it could have easily been even worse. They’ll be looking forward to getting back home, but for this week it’s another road match. This looks another close match, but the edge has to go to Central Coast, but it’s very hard to trust them. They look to be a little bit of overs, but not enough to entice me in, think it’s best to sit this game out and just watch on unless they drift to the $2.80+ range.

Last 5 games:

Central Coast 0

Wellington 4

Draw 1

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.52

Wellington $3.00

Draw $3.70

Market Price:
Central Coast $2.70 Sportsbet

Wellington $2.57 William Hill

Draw $3.50 Bet365

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.84

Wellington $2.19

Market Price
Central Coast $1.87 William Hill

Wellington $1.93 Sportsbet, William Hill, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under $2.65

Over $1.61

Market Price:
Under $2.25 Unibet

Over $1.71 Sportsbet

Value: No value.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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