Tricky week last round, with three low scoring draws, it was hard for anyone to make a profit from what I hear. The round started off as expected with Melbourne Victory winning at home to Central Coast. They might not have dominated as much as you would of thought, winning 2-1, but with Finkler banging in both of their goals within the first 20 minutes, they always looked to have control. There was then a bit of a surprise with league leaders Brisbane only getting a draw against Melbourne City when at home, off their previous form most thought they’d win this fixture. Wellington travelled to Western Sydney, and unsurprisingly came away with nothing, it was 1-1 with only about 10 minutes left, but Bridge broke the dead lock and gave Western Sydney all three points. The last two games of the week Perth/Sydney and Adelaide/Newcastle both ended in 0-0 draws. While I’m not too surprised Perth/Sydney was a draw, Adelaide were disappointing once again. If they couldn’t win that game at home, I don’t know when they’ll find their first win of the season. Another good week of A-League coming up, with Melbourne Victory getting their chance to get to the top of the table for the first time this season. With Brisbane and Western Sydney both playing away (mind you both winnable games), Melbourne Victory will get their shot to hit the top. No real stand out matches in the round for me, but that top of the table battle should be interesting. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 58 selections; I have had 20 winners, 32 losses and 6 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -13.72 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -23.66%.
Good luck this weekend if you’re having a punt.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $2.63.
2nd: Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $2.78.
3rd: Sydney FC/Wellington Phoenix – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73.
4th: Melbourne City/Perth Glory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.05.
Sydney FC v Wellington Phoenix
Thursday 26 November, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Sydney will be looking to improve on their recent poor form when they host Wellington on Thursday night. Last week Sydney headed to Perth, it always looked like it would be a tight game, and it ended that way, a 0-0 draw. While they would be happy with their clean sheet, the fact that they have only scored two goals themselves in the last three matches might start to worry the coaching staff. Luckily they are still only two points off the top of the table, so it hasn’t hurt them so far, but they’ll need to improve. Wellington had an uphill battle last week when they headed to Parramatta to face Western Sydney. While Wellington have been in ok form, not many thought they’d get much out of a match with an in-form Western Sydney. The match panned out that way too as they went down 2-1. They only lost the match in the last ten minutes, which is a little disappointing, but probably a fair result.
I think Sydney will head to the top of the ladder after this match, if only for a couple days. They can’t afford to drop points in matches like this, so I think they will come out guns blazing. I have Sydney rated at $1.88, unfortunately $1.80 is the best price available, and there is no value in Wellington or the draw either. Luckily I think this game should see plenty of goals, and have the Over 2.5 Goals rated rather low at $1.54, a couple of bookies have gone up $1.73, and that’s good enough for me.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 3
Wellington 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.88
Wellington $4.51
Draw $4.08
Market Price:
Sydney $1.80 Sportsbet, William Hill
Wellington $4.50 Bet365
Draw $3.80 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.42
Wellington $3.40
Market Price
Sydney $1.36 Sportsbet
Wellington $3.25 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.84
Over $1.54
Market Price:
Under $2.10 Unibet
Over $1.73 Sportsbet, Bet365
Value: Sydney FC/Wellington Phoenix – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73.
Melbourne City v Perth Glory
Friday 27 November, 7:40pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Friday night sees a match-up at AAMI Park between Melbourne City and Perth Glory. Melbourne City has been doing my head in this season, and last weeks match was no different. I didn’t give them much of a hope last week when they were away to Brisbane. Surprise surprise, they pulled out a draw, and were actually leading for a good portion of the match. It was a pretty decent effort against the league leaders, unfortunately it just seems extremely hard to tell which Melbourne City will turn up week to week. Perth hosted Sydney last week in what looked the tightest match last week. That’s exactly how it played out in a “thrilling” 0-0 draw. The positive out of the match was keeping a clean sheet against Sydney, who is known for their strong offensive efforts at times. Melbourne City should be winning this match, if the same team turns up this week that faced Brisbane, they’ll win.
Once again, bookmakers really don’t want to let us on, I have Melbourne City at $1.70, and that’s the exact price that’s around. Thank god for the Over/Under market, because it’s given us another play for the round. I have Under 2.5 Goals as the clear favourite for the match, but markets have this reversed. $2.05 for Under 2.5 Goals is available at a couple of bookies, I don’t think it will still be there at kickoff time. It looks the best play for this fixture.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 1
Perth 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.70
Perth $5.46
Draw $4.40
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.70 William Hill
Perth $5.00 bet365, Sportsbet, Unibet
Draw $4.00 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.31
Perth $4.22
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.30 William Hill
Perth $3.75 Bet365, Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.77
Over $2.30
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Bet265, Sportsbet
Over $1.76 Unibet
Value: Melbourne City/Perth Glory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.05.
Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 28 November, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
We’ve got a top half of the table battle on Saturday when Newcastle hosts Brisbane. Newcastle has been in great form (by their standard) this season and that continued last week. While they did only get one point out of the match, it was on the road to Adelaide. Now I know Adelaide haven’t been in great form this season, pretty average really, but I think at the start of the season Newcastle would have had any points taken out of this fixture as a good result. The downside, they dominated possession, 59%, but didn’t manage a single shot all game, on or off target, not sure if I’ve ever seen that before. Brisbane disappointed me last week; they hosted Melbourne City and only came away from it with a draw. It was enough to keep them at the top of the table, but I think it was two points that they really couldn’t afford to lose, it might come back to bite them later in the season.
This match looks tough, Newcastle has been pretty decent at home, but I have to give Brisbane the nod. Outside the last couple of weeks they have been the team to beat, but recent matches have shown their weaknesses. I’m shocked that Brisbane has gone up even money at best; I rated them about $2.43. On the flipside, I have Newcastle at $3.10, and you can get $3.80 at Bet365. I think this is a good way to go in this match, and the $2.78 for Draw No Bet is even better in this tight match.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Brisbane 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $3.10
Brisbane $2.43
Draw $3.76
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.80 Bet365
Brisbane $2.00 William Hill
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.28
Brisbane $1.78
Market Price
Newcastle $2.78 Sportsbet
Brisbane $1.50 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.49
Over $1.67
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Everywhere
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $3.80.
Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $2.78.
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United
Saturday 28 November, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium
Melbourne Victory look to be hosting another one-sided match this week, this time it’s up against their old rival Adelaide. Melbourne Victory played Central Coast last week and won 2-1. There isn’t a lot to take out of the match, before the match they always looked like they were going to win. During the match they always looked like they were going to win. They scored both of their goals early, with Central Coast getting their consolidation goal late in the piece, never really looking a chance of taking anything out of the match. Adelaide continued their disappointing form this season with a draw at home to Newcastle. We’re now seven games into the season, and they still haven’t found a win and sit bottom of the table. I know it’s only early, but if they want to make the finals, they’ll have to start picking up soon.
This match is pretty easy, Melbourne Victory pick themselves. They’re in cracking form, and it’s very hard to see this match ending in anything but a win for them. The bookmakers aren’t being very kind this week, another match where there is no Head to Head value. Disappointingly there is no Over/Under value in this fixture either, we’ll just have to sit tight and wait for the next match. I’d be pretty surprised if this match wasn’t high scoring though.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 2
Adelaide 0
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.54
Adelaide $7.32
Draw $4.66
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.57 Unibet
Adelaide $5.75 Sportsbet
Draw $4.00 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.21
Adelaide $5.75
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.25 Bet365
Adelaide $4.30 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.26
Over $1.44
Market Price:
Under $2.45 Sportsbet
Over $1.54 Unibet
Value: No value.
Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers
Sunday 29 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
Weekend finishes up on Sunday with Western Sydney taking on Central Coast at Bluetongue Stadium. Central Coast headed to AAMI Park to face Melbourne Victory last week, and no surprise, they came away empty handed. They only lost 2-1, but that score line is probably a little flattering to them, they never really looked much of a chance, but that was to be expected. Western Sydney has been playing well, enough for them to only be one point off the top of the ladder. They continued this form last week when hosting Wellington when they were expected to win. They got all three points in their 2-1 win. They’ve been creeping up on everyone this season, but their form is strong, and they are looking like real players this season.
I like Central Coast in this match, I know they have only won one match so far this season, but I think this is a good chance to double that tally. Bookies, I’m knocked off my chair with your prices; I legitimately think the prices should be the other way around. I understand my prices might be wrong, but I think the market is wrong too, and it should be somewhere in the middle. $3.75 for Head to Head and $2.63 for Draw No Bet for Central Coast looks too good to be true, and think you can have a go at both and get a good run for your money, especially the Draw No Bet option.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Western Sydney 1
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.98
Western Sydney $4.17
Draw $3.93
Market Price:
Central Coast $3.75 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $2.05 William Hill, Unibet
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.47
Western Sydney $3.11
Market Price
Central Coast $2.63 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $1.50 Bet365, William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.34
Over $1.75
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365
Over $1.85 Unibet
Value: Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $3.75.
Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $2.63.
