Another round done and dusted and the season is really starting to take shape. A couple of teams have cleared out at the top of the table, and it’s pretty tight after that.
Friday saw Central Coast get their second win for the season when hosting Wellington. It was as good a chance as they would get to get the three points, so it’s a good thing they did, it’s only harder from here on out. But they won, and did it with a little bit of authority.
On New Years Day we had scheduled what look like really exciting match, Western Sydney/Adelaide. And while it was a tight match, it wasn’t all that exciting with the teams sharing the points after the game finished 0-0.
Brisbane took care of Perth on Saturday, as everyone assumed they would, but after Western Sydney dropped points the day before, Brisbane’s win was enough to escalate them to the top of the table.
Melbourne City and Sydney faced off in what looked another cracking match. I thought Melbourne City could get back to their winning ways, but it wasn’t to be, with this game finishing in a draw also, at least this time it was 2-2 though.
The week rounded out with Newcastle hosting Melbourne Victory. As expected Melbourne Victory came away with the win, but it wasn’t a walk in the park for them. Maybe they’ll be able to start stringing some wins together after their recent form slump.
With Western Sydney and Brisbane both playing away this weekend it will be interesting to see if either can take all three points out of their match as that top spot is up for grabs again this week.
Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 99 selections; I have had 33 winners, 57 losses and 9 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -21.92 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -22.14%.
Hopefully we have some more luck this week.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.75.
2nd: Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.00.
3rd: Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $2.10.
4th: Perth Glory/Adelaide United – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
Friday 8 January, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Simonds Stadium
I think Central Coast got the raw end of this deal as they “host” Melbourne Victory down in Geelong on Friday. It’s good to say it; Central Coast is coming off a win last week! It had been a couple months since their last victory, so I’m sure they really enjoyed it. It wasn’t too tough of a fixture, they were up against Wellington at home, but with their recent form, every match is a tough slog for them. They bagged two goals in half an hour and from that point on they looked to be in control, they ended up taking the game out 3-1. Melbourne Victory had to travel up to Newcastle to face the Jets last week. While no road trip is easy, they would of gone into the match very confident, and they got their desired result, a 1-0 win. It took them until the last 20 minutes of the game to finally break though, but they had quite a few chances, so it looked like only a matter of time until they broke through. This game should be no problem for Melbourne Victory, while it isn’t a home game for them, they barely have to travel, they’re going no where near as far as Central Coast who’s home game it is. Melbourne Victory has also won the last 6 fixtures between these two teams. Saying all that, I think I have to go Central Coast at the price; they look over the odds to me at $7.00 after coming off a win. I think the $5.50 for a Draw No Bet is probably the safer way to go though. Being a Melbourne Victory game there should be plenty of goals, so Overs looks another solid play here too.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 0
Melbourne Victory 5
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $5.47
Melbourne Victory $1.73
Draw $4.21
Market Price:
Central Coast $7.00 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $1.53 Sportsbet
Draw $4.50 Ladbrokes, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $4.17
Melbourne Victory $1.32
Market Price:
Central Coast $5.50 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $1.20 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.13
Over $1.47
Market Price:
Under $2.45 Sportsbet
Over $1.62 Bet365
Value: Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $7.00.
Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $5.50.
Central Coast Mariners/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.62.
Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 9 January, 5:15pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium
We start our Saturday triple-header kicks-off with Sydney hosting Newcastle. Sydney was very good in my opinion last week. They played Melbourne City away and I doubted that they had much chance of taking anything out of the match. They showed me though, while not quite a win they managed a draw, and after being behind twice during the game, I think that’s a pretty good result for them. Newcastle hosted Melbourne Victory in a tough match-up for them last week. For the first hour they kept things level, but they couldn’t hold out for the entire game. Twenty minutes from the final whistle Ben Khallfallah got the breakthrough leaving Newcastle empty handed from a game they played pretty well in. On paper it just looks like Sydney has to show up to win, and it might pan out that way, that’s how it looks to me. I’ve got Sydney very short at $1.51, but unfortunately there is no value around to make them a worthwhile selection. On the flip side though, I think the Over 2.5 Goals has been underrated by the bookmakers again as is a good option at $1.78.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 4
Newcastle 1
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.51
Newcastle $7.91
Draw $4.77
Market Price:
Sydney $1.45 William Hill
Newcastle $7.50 Sportsbet, Unibet
Draw $4.75 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.19
Newcastle $6.25
Market Price:
Sydney $1.15 William Hill
Newcastle $6.00 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.94
Over $1.52
Market Price:
Under $2.10 William Hill, Unibet
Over $1.78 Sportsbet
Value: Sydney FC/Newcastle Jets – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.78.
Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 9 January, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The highlight of the weekend in my opinion is this game between Melbourne City and Western Sydney, two of the stronger teams in the league in my opinion. Melbourne City disappointed me last week when only getting a draw out of their home match against Sydney. I thought that they would do better than that off their form over the last couple of months, but it wasn’t to be. The game ended 2-2, and after they led twice, they would be (and should be) very disappointed only getting one point out of the fixture. They’re now two games behind the top two teams so they wouldn’t want to drop too many more points in games that they should be winning. Western Sydney were also disappointing last week, they’ve been one of the strongest teams recently so when their schedule said at home to Adelaide, most would have chalked in the three points straight away, but they couldn’t do it. Once again their defense was great, not letting in a single goal. Unfortunately their offense didn’t perform as well and couldn’t manage a solitary goal, so the game finished goalless, it wasn’t the greatest start to the New Year. This is Melbourne City’s chance I feel, at home to Western Sydney, they get every chance to knock off one of these top two sides, but if they lose, the Premiership could almost be too far for them to reach. I personally think Melbourne City is great odds at $2.80, and even money in the Draw No Bet market looks even better. I think Melbourne City is one of the better bets of the weekend, and if they lose here, they are definitely on the decline.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 1
Western Sydney 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.70
Western Sydney $5.45
Draw $4.39
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.80 William Hill
Western Sydney $2.50 Unibet
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.31
Western Sydney $4.21
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.00 Bet365, William Hill
Western Sydney $1.84 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.48
Over $1.68
Market Price:
Under $2.20 Everywhere
Over $1.73 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.80.
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.00.
Perth Glory v Adelaide United
Saturday 9 January, 9:40pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
The last of our Saturday triple-header is Adelaide against Perth at NIB Stadium. Perth travelled to Brisbane last week and unsurprisingly lost to the league leaders. It was 0-0 at half time, but shortly into the second half Brisbane put on a couple of goals to put the result beyond doubt. Perth fought back to get one goal, but that’s where it ended, finishing at 2-1. Adelaide had a walk in the park last week when they hosted Wellington. Everyone expected them to win the match rather easily, and that’s exactly what they did. They scored through a penalty just before half time, and then bagged another couple of goals in the second half to run away 3-0 winners. Perth have a great chance to win this week now they are back at home, being so far away it makes road trips hard for them, but on the plus side, it makes it hard for teams that have to travel to Perth. The price for Perth is enticing too, $2.88 at Bet365 is more than generous in my opinion as I have them rated at $2.00. I also like the Over 2.5 Goals again, looks like they’ve underestimated it again.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Adelaide 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $2.00
Adelaide $4.05
Draw $3.95
Market Price:
Perth $2.88 Bet365
Adelaide $2.40 Everywhere
Draw $3.45 Sportsbet, William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.49
Adelaide $3.02
Market Price:
Perth $2.10 Bet365
Adelaide $1.75 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.72
Over $1.58
Market Price:
Under $1.95 William Hill
Over $1.95 Bet365
Value: Perth Glory – Head to Head – $2.88.
Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $2.10.
Perth Glory/Adelaide United – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar
Sunday 10 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
Round 14 finishes up on Sunday afternoon with what looks a tight match between Wellington and Brisbane. Wellington is coming off quite a beating last week when away to Adelaide. They’ve struggled on the road this season and it was no different in Adelaide. They never looked dangerous and ended up going down 3-0. Brisbane continued on their merry way with another win last week, this time it was when at home to Perth. They won the match 2-1, but it looked a more clear-cut win than that, they really dominated the match for the majority of the game. After Western Sydney’s game finished in a draw earlier in the round, this win has taken Brisbane to the top of the table. This is a tight game, and could probably go wither way, but I think back in New Zealand, Wellington should be able to get the job done and come away with all three points. Keen on Wellington both Head to Head and in the Draw No Bet market. They should be really tough to beat, and they don’t lose too many over in New Zealand. I keep on saying it, but once again Over 2.5 Goals looks another viable play, $1,80 is a great price in my opinion.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 3
Brisbane 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.22
Brisbane $3.55
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Wellington $3.80 Bet365
Brisbane $2.05 William Hill
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.62
Brisbane $2.60
Market Price:
Wellington $2.75 Bet365, Unibet
Brisbane $1.50 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.94
Over $1.52
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Everywhere
Over $1.80 Bet365, Unibet
Value: Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $3.80.
Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.75.
Wellington Phoenix/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
