2016 Round 16 A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

Another week is done, and with the top two teams both losing their games, the top of the table has opened right up now for a few others. Melbourne Victory struck their form of old with their domination over Brisbane. They scored right from the get go, and from then never looked back, winning the game 4-0. They’ve been a little quiet lately so maybe things are turning back around for them. Adelaide had the pleasure of hosting Central Coast on Saturday and as expected they got the job done easily. The won the game 3-0 and they dominated all the stats across the board. The big Sydney Derby was on and it went they way not many people thought it would. Sydney came away with the win after Smeltz scored a very late goal to give them all three points. Perth hosted Melbourne City in a match that looked like it would be pretty tight, and that’s exactly what it was. After a back and forth battle, the game finished up with teams sharing the points with a 2-2 draw. Newcastle managed to upstage the more favoured Wellington in the last game of the round. They’ve been struggling for form lately, but it didn’t look like it on Sunday when they won 3-1. Being the Australia Day weekend, the round goes over five days starting with Brisbane/Adelaide on Friday night through to Melbourne Victory/Sydney on Australia Day. The Big Blue on Australia Day is no doubt the highlight of the round, but Brisbane/Adelaide should be a cracking match too. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 118 selections; I have had 42 winners, 65 losses and 11 pushes. This equates to (at staking to win 1 unit) -16.39 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -13.37%.


Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United

Friday 22 January, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

The league leaders are back at home this week as they face Adelaide on Friday night. It was a tough game for Brisbane last week, they had to travel down south to take on Melbourne Victory which is always a task, but they never got into their groove and looked at all sorts against an attacking Victory. They went behind after only five minutes, and it just continued downhill from there. By halftime it was 3-0 and any chance of salvaging something from the game was long gone. The score at the final whistle was 4-0, and probably a pretty accurate depiction of how the game was played. Adelaide had an easy kill on the weekend, they were at home to Central Coast, and if you are ever going to lock in three points before a game has even been played, that is the fixture. While it did take Adelaide a while to net their first goal (the second half), once they did the floodgates opened and they added two more. The game finished up 3-1 in a pretty predictable match. Back at home Brisbane should have no trouble dealing with Adelaide, they’re at the top of the ladder and a strong performance here will show why. I thought the home side should be odds-on, but surprisingly you can get as much as $2.10 for them. In my opinion that is more than enough, I think anything down to about $1.90 is good value.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane        3
Adelaide        2
Draw              0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.79
Adelaide        $4.88
Draw              $4.23

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $2.10 Sportsbet, William Hill
Adelaide        $3.75 Bet365
Draw              $3.55 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.37
Adelaide        $3.72

Market Price:  
Brisbane        $1.53 Sportsbet
Adelaide        $2.63 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.58
Over              $1.63

Market Price:  
Under            $2.08 Bet365
Over              $1.78 Sportsbet

Value:         Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.10.
Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.53.
Brisbane Roar/Adelaide United – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.78.

Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 23 January, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

The ever struggling Central Coast play host to Western Sydney who are looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss. Central Coast was over in Adelaide last week and unsurprisingly came away with no points. They have struggled to get anything out of road games this year, and they dealt up the same average football last round as they have all season. The end score was 3-1, and an accurate account of how they went. At this stage they need to be playing at home to have a chance of scoring any points in my opinion. Western Sydney disappointed a lot of their fans when they lost to their biggest rival, Sydney, last Saturday. After the loss the week before, getting back to their home ground most thought they could take out the Derby, but it wasn’t to be. It was close though, for the last half an hour the game stood at 1-1, but an injury time goal from Smeltz ruined Western Sydney’s night. Western Sydney should finally be able to scratch up another win here after a lean few weeks, they’re the far superior team, but they need to show up, which they haven’t really done lately. Can’t believe I’m typing this but I think Central Coast is a little bit of value, especially in the Draw No Bet market. I think $4.60 is more than enough for me to have a throw at the stumps. They look value Head to Head too, but that might be a little too risky.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        1
Western Sydney    2
Draw                      2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $3.75
Western Sydney    $2.14
Draw                      $3.76

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $6.00 Bet365, Unibet
Western Sydney    $1.60 Everywhere
Draw                      $4.10 William Hill, Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Central Coast        $2.81
Western Sydney    $1.55

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $4.60 Unibet
Western Sydney    $1.25 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.54
Over              $1.65

Market Price: 
Under            $2.25 Bet365
Over              $1.71 Sportsbet

Value:         Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $4.60.
Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $6.00.

Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory

Sunday 23 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

We have what looks to be the tightest game of the weekend on Sunday afternoon when Newcastle takes on Perth. Newcastle is coming off one of their best performances of the season. Last week they were hosting Wellington, which is a fairly attainable match, but they came out and got the job done well. They struggled in the possession stats, but they found a way to use the football well and found the back of the net three times. Wellington scored one goal, but it was when the match was all over, leaving Newcastle with a pretty comfortable win. It’s hard to know what to make of Perth’s game last week; it was a 2-2 draw with Melbourne City. While Melbourne City is a tough competitor, Perth was at home, which they usually play pretty well at. I think they get a pass mark for it, but they’ll need to improve if they want to make finals, time is running out for them. As I said above, I think this will be a pretty tight affair, but I think Perth gets the nod slightly ahead of Newcastle here. I think they might just have too much firepower for them and can hurt them on the score sheet. Pretty happy to be with Perth here, I thought they would be favourite, but the market has them the other way around. Draw No Bet market probably the safer option at even money.

Last 5 games:    
Newcastle           0
Perth                  4
Draw                   1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Newcastle           $3.41
Perth                  $2.26
Draw                   $3.79

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $2.50 Everywhere
Perth               $2.80 Bet365
Draw               $3.45 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $2.51
Perth               $1.66

Market Price: 
Newcastle        $1.85 William Hill
Perth               $2.00 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                $1.76
Over                  $2.32

Market Price:    
Under                 $1.85 Bet365
Over                   $1.95 Bet365

Value:         Perth Glory – Head to Head – $2.80.
Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $2.00

Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix

Monday 25 January, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

On a rare Monday night game we head down to AAMI Park to see Melbourne City and Wellington go head to head. Melbourne City is coming off an average game over in Perth last week. They’ve started to charge up the ladder recently and I thought they might continue with a win over there, but all they could manage was a draw. They held a lot of possession but couldn’t get that many shots on target for the whole match. I think they’d be disappointed with only the one point out of the match, but with two of three teams above them on the ladder losing, they are still within striking distance of the Premiership. Wellington played Newcastle away last week, and struggled to make much of an impact. They lost 3-1, and their goal came late in the piece when they had nothing to really play for anyway. They’re now over a game outside a finals position, and based on their recent form, I can’t see them changing that any time soon. This is a must win match for Melbourne City, and I can’t see any excuses as to why they won’t. They’ve been in good form recently, and Wellington really struggles to travel. I was hoping to get on Melbourne City because I think they’ll be incredibly hard to beat, but alas their market price is identical to my rated price, meaning there is no value in them. Have to leave this game alone unfortunately.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City       2
Wellington              1
Draw                      2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City      $1.56
Wellington             $7.01
Draw                     $4.60

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.57 Unibet
Wellington           $6.00 Bet365
Draw                   $4.25 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City     $1.22
Wellington             $5.49

Market Price:    
Melbourne City      $1.22 Bet365, William Hill
Wellington              $4.25 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:  
Under                    $2.74
Over                      $1.58

Market Price:    
Under                    $2.70 Bet365
Over                      $1.51 Sportsbet

Value:         No value.

Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

Tuesday 26 January, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium

It’s the big Australia Day clash between Melbourne Victory and Sydney. Melbourne Victory is coming off a massive performance last week. We all know they are good at home, but they were playing the league leaders Brisbane last week, so understandably most thought it would be a tight match, it was anything but. Melbourne Victory opened the scoring minutes into the game and never looked back. By the time the ninety minutes was up the score was 4-0 and Brisbane didn’t know what had just happened. We haven’t seen form like that from them in a while; hopefully they can keep it up in the run into finals. Sydney was pretty impressive themselves, they had the big Sydney Derby, and to make things tougher, it was at Western Sydney’s home ground. That didn’t stop them though; they came out fighting and landed an impressive 2-1 victory. That win has pulled them up to third on the table, and they are starting to look like a serious side. Melbourne Victory should be able to post back-to-back wins here, but it’s not clear-cut, Sydney has been in good form and could cause an upset. The match odds are basically the same as my rated prices, but thankfully the Over 2.5 Goals looks like value at $1.85.

Last 5 games: 
Melbourne Victory        2
Sydney                         0
Draw                             3

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.19
Sydney                     $3.47
Draw                         $3.93

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.05 William Hill
Sydney                     $3.75 Sportsbet
Draw                         $3.60 Bet365, Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.63
Sydney                     $2.58

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.53 William Hill
Sydney                     $2.79 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                    $2.90
Over                      $1.53

Market Price:  
Under                   $2.02 Unibet
Over                     $1.85 Bet365

Value:         Melbourne Victory/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85.



I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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