2016 Round 18 A-League Preview & Bets

It was anther good round of A-League last week with Western Sydney showing their dominance with a tough win of over fellow title hopes Melbourne City. This was the match the kicked off Round 18 on Friday and Western Sydney had control of the match for the majority of the game. At one stage they were 3-0 up, and while Melbourne City fought back to only lose 4-3 by the end of the game, Western Sydney always looked to be in control. The big surprise of the weekend came on Saturday afternoon when Central Coast headed over to New Zealand to take on Wellington. Prior to this game Central Coast had only had two wins for the season, but that didn’t stop them putting on an ultra impressive performance. It was 0-0 at halftime, but shortly after the break Central Coast turned the gas up and by the time it got to injury time they were up 3-0, Powell scored a late consolidation goal for Wellington, but that didn’t make any difference to the end result. Another surprise was the result at Allianz Stadium. Most thought that Sydney would be able to claim the points against Brisbane at home after Brisbane was in a little bit of a form slump, it wasn’t to be though. Maclaren opened the scoring for Brisbane only a few minutes in which gave them a slight advantage going into the break. An own goal brought Sydney back into the match, but it wasn’t long before another couple of Brisbane goals blew the game wide apart. Their 3-1 win took them to a clear second on the ladder, while Sydney dropped down to fifth. Perth hosted Melbourne Victory in a tight little match. I thought Perth should be slight favourites, but Melbourne Victory was, and it lived up to the tightness. Perth took out the match 3-2 with a late goal from Castro saving the day for the home team. The final match on Sunday was Adelaide hosting Newcastle. Adelaide was an incredibly short favourite, and they didn’t let backers down. It wasn’t a walk in the park for them, but they got the breakthrough goal just before halftime. They held the 1-0 score line till the final whistle, earning them another three points.

Round 19 is upon us and all eyes will be Etihad Stadium on Saturday night for the big matchup between Melbourne Victory and Western Sydney. Most of the other games look rather one-sided this round.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 139 selections; I have had 50 winners, 78 losses and 11 pushes. This equates to (at staking to win 1 unit) -20.16 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -14.23%.

Good luck with any punting you have over the weekend.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Adelaide United/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85.
2nd:    Brisbane Roar/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.47.
3rd:    Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.35.
4th:    Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $2.45.

Adelaide United v Sydney FC

Friday 5 February, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Friday night kicks off with one of the better matches of the weekend as Sydney face Adelaide at Hindmarsh Stadium. These two teams are within one point of each other on the table, so this could be a crucial match for both sides. Adelaide are coming off a pretty standard victory last week, they hosted Newcastle and started very short. It took them till nearly halftime to find the breakthrough goal courtesy of Carrusca, but once they got the lead, they never looked like losing it. With a couple of the teams close to them on the ladder dropping points, it was good for them to get the win. Sydney was very lackluster last Saturday when they couldn’t put up much of a fight against Brisbane. And while Brisbane is a good team, they were at home and Brisbane has been a little down on form, so their 3-1 loss will be very disappointing. I think Adelaide can back it up once again and make it five wins on the trot. They are in great form, at the right part of the season, this should just be another stepping-stone for them. The best way of attacking this game looks to be the Over 2.5 Goals to me, while Adelaide games don’t always produce the most goals, Sydney games usually do.

Last 5 games:  
Adelaide          4
Sydney            1
Draw               0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide           $2.38
Sydney            $3.15
Draw               $3.82

Market Price:    
Adelaide          $2.30 Sportsbet
Sydney            $3.30 Bet365
Draw               $3.45 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide          $1.76
Sydney            $2.32

Market Price:    
Adelaide          $1.62 Sportsbet
Sydney            $2.38 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price: 
Under            $2.55
Over              $1.64

Market Price:    
Under            $1.97 Unibet
Over              $1.85 Bet365

Value:         Adelaide United/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85.

Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday 6 February, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane has what looks like one of the easiest fixtures on the calendar when they face Central Coast at home on Saturday afternoon. Brisbane is coming off the best performance of the round last week when they took on Sydney at Allianz Stadium and won. Not only did they win, they won 3-1, and the one Sydney goal actually came from an own goal, so there was plenty of upside from their performance heading towards finals. Central Coast actually shocked most when they had to fly to Christchurch to face Wellington, and came away with all three points. It was their best effort this season, but can they back it up this week, I don’t think so. To me this looks as one-sided as it gets. The market has Brisbane at $1.45, and even at that tiny price, I think it represents a little bit of value, not enough to make it a selection, but value nonetheless. It’s another game where Over 2.5 Goals looks the way to go, of the last twelve games these teams have played (last six rounds), eleven have had three or more goals scored.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane               4
Central Coast        0
Draw                     1

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Brisbane                $1.41
Central Coast        $8.85
Draw                     $5.59

Market Price:  
Brisbane                $1.45 Sportsbet
Central Coast        $4.90 Unibet
Draw                     $5.00 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane                $1.16
Central Coast        $7.27

Market Price:  
Brisbane                $1.15 Sportsbet
Central Coast        $6.00 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $5.43
Over              $1.23

Market Price:    
Under            $2.70 Bet365
Over              $1.47 Sportsbet

Value:         Brisbane Roar/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.47.

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 6 February, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium

The highlight of the round is down in Etihad Stadium during prime time on Saturday night, it’s Melbourne Victory against Western Sydney. Some people might of thought Melbourne Victory was average last week, I think they went ok, granted it wasn’t a great performance, but I think they did enough. They were playing away in Perth, so I had them as the underdog, but all the bookie markets had them as favourites. Perth scooted off to a 2-0 within the first half hour and things were looking dire for the boys in blue, but Berisha single handedly leveled things up with a couple of his own goals. Unfortunately their hard effort was for nothing as they let in the deciding goal in the last ten minutes of the game. Western Sydney was strong last week when they hosted Melbourne City, another side vying for the premiership. At one stage they held a 3-0 led, and while it got close in the end, they never looked like losing, winning the game 4-3. This is Melbourne Victory’s chance to show they can still be a contender this season, if they lose here, they’ll have a tough time in finals. I think they should be able to win, and win pretty comfortably. With as much as $2.35 available for them, I think they are definitely one of the better bets this weekend.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne Victory    4
Western Sydney      1
Draw                        0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.82
Western Sydney       $4.75
Draw                         $4.17

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.35 Sportsbet
Western Sydney       $3.00 Unibet
Draw                        $3.55 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.38
Western Sydney      $3.61

Market Price:  
Melbourne Victory    $1.68 Sportsbet
Western Sydney      $2.20 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.49
Over              $1.67

Market Price:    
Under            $2.30 Unibet
Over              $1.62 Bet365

Value:         Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.35.
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.68.

Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory

Sunday 7 February, 3:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Sunday gets started with a little bit of a slow match as neither team is likely to make finals, but hopefully we can still win some money from it. It’s Wellington hosting Perth. Wellington is coming off what can only be described as the poorest performance of the season. They were hosting Central Coast, a team who at the time hadn’t won a road match in over 12 months; so everyone thought they would just win. Not only did they lose, at one point they were actually 3-0 down, and while they did claw one goal back in injury time, it meant very little. Perth on the flip was very professional, getting the job done at home against Melbourne Victory last week. They were leading 2-0, then Victory bagged a couple to even it up, but Castro saved the day for Perth scoring a late goal to give them all three points. Wellington “should” be winning this game, Perth is no good on the road, and this is the longest road trip around, but after last week, Wellington makes me very nervous. I have to say Wellington is a little bit of value, but just like above, tread carefully, because if they play like last week, you might as well flush your money down the toilet.

Last 5 games:  
Wellington        2
Perth                2
Draw                1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $2.21
Perth                $3.55
Draw                $3.75

Market Price:    
Wellington        $2.45 Sportsbet
Perth               $2.90 Bet365
Draw               $3.50 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $1.62
Perth               $2.61

Market Price: 
Wellington        $1.74 Sportsbet
Perth               $2.10 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.34
Over              $1.75

Market Price:    
Under            $2.28 Unibet
Over              $1.64 Palmerbet

Value:         Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $2.45.

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City

Sunday 7 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

The Round 18 action finishes up on Sunday afternoon with another short priced favourite, this time it is Melbourne City as they head up to Hunter Stadium to take on a Newcastle side that has been struggling lately. Newcastle had a pretty stock standard match last week, they were away to Adelaide and they lost 1-0. They didn’t win which obviously it wasn’t great, but only losing by one goal in that fixture is a pretty decent result for Newcastle. Melbourne City had the tough task of playing Western Sydney away. It was always going to be a hard match-up for them but they played admirably, only going down by one goal in the end. Melbourne City should win this; they need to win this with aspirations of a premiership still in their sights. Unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any real value in this final game of the round, so hopefully you’ve already had some luck in the early games. Keep an eye on Melbourne City though, if they drift to even money, then I think they are worth a gamble.

Last 5 games: 
Newcastle           1
Melbourne City    3
Draw                   1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Newcastle            $4.79
Melbourne City    $1.80
Draw                    $4.22

Market Price:  
Newcastle            $4.40 Sportsbet
Melbourne City    $1.83 Bet365
Draw                   $4.00 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle            $3.66
Melbourne City    $1.38

Market Price:  
Newcastle            $3.32 Sportsbet
Melbourne City    $1.36 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.55
Over              $1.64

Market Price:    
Under            $2.70 Bet365
Over              $1.51 Sportsbet

Value:         No value.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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