2016 Round 19 A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

The top of the table tightens again after Brisbane won their match but Western Sydney could only manage a draw. Melbourne City’s loss has really hurt their chances at a Premiership too, it could just be a race in two now. The two blockbuster matches of last weeks round (Adelaide/Sydney and Melbourne Victory/Western Sydney) lived up to the hype with both games being extremely tight, right to the final whistle. After a back and forth match, Adelaide and Sydney ended up having to share the points as their game finished 2-2. In the Saturday night game, Melbourne Victory scored early and it looked like they were going to hold that 1-0 lead till the end, but as always, Western Sydney came through with a goal when they needed it in the last few minutes of the game. After that, the game finished 1-1 and they had to settle for one point each too. Brisbane had the easiest of kills on Saturday afternoon when they hosted Central Coast. They were 2-0 up at half time, and put on another couple of goals on in the second half to win the match 4-0. Now that the top of the table is so close, that goal difference really helps them. Sunday had a couple of surprises in the A-League; first of all it was when Perth made the extremely long road trip to Wellington. I didn’t give them much chance myself, but they came out and won the match 1-0. They did it with minimal possession too as Wellington looked to control most of the match. The last game of the weekend was in Newcastle against Melbourne City. With Melbourne City looking a chance of winning the Premiership I thought they’d be extremely tough to beat, but Newcastle had other ideas, and a double by Trifunovic left Melbourne City empty handed. The final score was 2-1 and now Melbourne City sits on equal points with Melbourne Victory and Sydney. Brisbane and Western Sydney should have relatively easy fixtures this week, both playing at home to non-finals teams. So the top of the table battle shouldn’t change too much. The real excitement of the weekend will be the Melbourne Derby, with both teams on the tails of the league leaders; it will be one of the most important Derby’s to date.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 144 selections; I have had 52 winners, 80 losses and 12 pushes. This equates to (at staking to win 1 unit) -19.61 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -13.26%.

Good luck with any bets you have over the weekend.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.10.
2nd:    Brisbane Roar/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals.
3rd:    Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $7.00.
4th:    Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $8.00
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Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets

Friday 12 February, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Round 19 kicks-off with what looks to be a walk in the park for Brisbane, they host the struggling Newcastle at home. Brisbane is coming off an easy match-up last week when they played Central Coast at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday. They started a very short priced favourite, so anything but a win wouldn’t of been acceptable, but it was never in doubt. They won the match 4-0, adding to their positive goal difference as they head towards the pointy end of the season. Newcastle surprised everyone when they pulled out a solid win against Melbourne City. After struggling for most of the season it was good to see them get their fifth win, even if it was a little bit of a shock. No doubt about this one, Brisbane should just be winning, I’ve got them rated $1.49, which says enough, plus the fact that they are playing for silverware, it’s hard to see them losing this one. And after all that, it kills me to say it, but I think Newcastle is a little bit of value, especially at $8.00 for money back if the game ends in a draw. Obviously they’re outsiders, and the less likely result, but I think they are a better chance than their price suggests.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane             3
Newcastle          1
Draw                  1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane          $1.49
Newcastle        $7.96
Draw                $4.88

Market Price:    
Brisbane           $1.35 Sportsbet
Newcastle         $9.00 Bet365
Draw                 $5.50 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane          $1.19
Newcastle        $6.33

Market Price:  
Brisbane          $1.10 Sportsbet
Newcastle        $8.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.36
Over              $1.73

Market Price:    
Under            $2.70 Bet365
Over              $1.51 Sportsbet

Value:         Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $8.00.
Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $9.00.
Brisbane Roar/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals.

Sydney FC v Perth Glory

Saturday 13 February, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

Saturday afternoon see’s another game with one of these short priced favourites, this time it’s Sydney as they host Perth. Sydney were pretty solid last week, they had to play Adelaide away in a match-up that always looked pretty tight on paper. It couldn’t turn out any tighter as the game finished 2-2. Sydney showed something though, they were trailing at two points in the game, and fought back both times to take a share of the points. Perth really surprised me last Sunday beating Wellington in New Zealand when a pretty long priced underdog. They only managed 38% of the possession, but they scored a goal, and Wellington couldn’t, so they got all three points. Sydney should be able to win this match pretty easily I’d say. They’re still trying to move as high up the ladder as they can to increase their chances come finals time, so doubt they’d let points like this slip through their hands. Market is spot on here, there doesn’t really look to be any value. Over 2.5 Goals is a little higher than my rated price, but not enough to make it a selection.

Last 5 games:  
Sydney              3
Perth                 1
Draw                 1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $1.78
Perth               $4.86
Draw               $4.28

Market Price:  
Sydney            $1.70 Sportsbet, William Hill
Perth               $5.00 Everywhere
Draw               $4.00 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price: 
   
Sydney            $1.37
Perth               $3.73

Market Price:    
Sydney            $1.30 Sportsbet
Perth               $3.85 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.49
Over              $1.67

Market Price:    
Under            $2.15 Unibet
Over              $1.73 Bet365

Value:         No value.

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 13 February, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

It’s the game everyone will be watching this weekend, the Melbourne Derby, and with both teams in good form, it will be one of the most hotly contested Derby’s we’ve seen. Melbourne City dropped the ball last week when they lost to Newcastle after previously being in such good form. They controlled the football for good portions of the game, but couldn’t get things going in the last third of the pitch. It was 0-0 at halftime, but once the second half kicked off Newcastle scored. They buried another one a little later and suddenly Melbourne City was 2-0 down. They scored a late goal, to bring it back to 2-1, but that’s where it finished. Melbourne Victory had a tough game, they were up against Western Sydney, but they were at home, so they started favourite. After scoring early, Melbourne Victory would of thought that the three points were wrapped up as the game was coming to a close, but Western Sydney spoiled the party. Santalab scored in the last few minutes to leave both sides with a point. This looks like one of the tightest Derby’s in recent times, but I think Melbourne City has the edge. I was quite surprised with the prices the bookmakers went up with, having Melbourne Victory as favourite. I think the odds should be flipped, so Melbourne City Head to Head and in the Draw No Bet market look the value in this to me. I think they’ll shorten a fair bit from the $3.00 on offer.

Last 5 games:  
Melbourne City         2
Melbourne Victory    3
Draw                         0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City         $2.38
Melbourne Victory    $3.18
Draw                         $3.76

Market Price:    
Melbourne City         $3.00 Bet365
Melbourne Victory    $2.60 Sportsbet
Draw                        $3.75 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City         $1.75
Melbourne Victory    $2.33

Market Price:    
Melbourne City         $2.10 Bet365
Melbourne Victory    $1.90 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.81
Over              $1.55

Market Price:  
Under            $2.70 Bet365, Unibet
Over              $1.50 Sportsbet

Value:         Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.10.
Melbourne City – Head to Head – $3.00.

Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United

Sunday 14 February, 3:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Sunday afternoon sees Central Coast hosting Adelaide at Bluetongue Stadium. Central Coast got smashed last week when they travelled up north to Brisbane. This isn’t too much of a shock really as they were massive outsiders in the match-up. There isn’t much more to make of the game, they ended up going down 4-0, they must be really looking forward to the end of the season. Adelaide hosted Sydney last Friday and it was always going to be a close game. First they led, then Sydney tied it up, they led again, and Sydney tied it up again. It ended up finishing at 2-2, and while they might think they dropped points they could of won, I think it was a pretty fair result for the match. Even though they are on the road, Adelaide really should be taking all three points out of this one, they’re the far superior team, and they need this a lot more than Central Coast does. It’s another game where the bookies prices match exactly up with my pricings, leaving us with little to no value, think we should hold off on this game and wait for the next.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        1
Adelaide                4
Draw                     0

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Central Coast        $5.03
Adelaide                $1.80
Draw                     $4.10

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $4.20 Bet365
Adelaide                $1.80 Everywhere
Draw                     $4.00 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $3.80
Adelaide                $1.36

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $3.25 Bet365
Adelaide                $1.36 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.60
Over              $1.62

Market Price:    
Under            $2.45 Unibet
Over              $1.57 Bet365

Value:         No value.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix

Sunday 14 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium

Final game of the round, and it’s an important one as far as the table is concerned; it’s Western Sydney and Wellington facing off at Parramatta Stadium. While the points don’t matter to Wellington, they are very important to Western Sydney who is currently the league leaders. Western Sydney dropped a couple of achievable points last week when they travelled down south to take on Melbourne Victory. They were actually slight underdogs for the game, but most thought they had every chance of causing an upset. Things were looking dire for them though as for most of the game they trailed 1-0, luckily though they snagged a very late goal to get a share of the points. Wellington disappointed backers last week when they lost at home to Perth. They usually perform so well at home, but that wasn’t the case last week losing 1-0. Their season is already over, but I can’t imagine they’d want to end up with the wooden spoon. Western Sydney should just win this match, they need the points, and so they won’t let this one slip. Once again, I hate this, but I have to go with the outsider at the price, Wellington shouldn’t be $7.00 in the Draw No Bet market in my opinion. Obviously hard to trust them, but I think you should get a decent run for your money.

Last 5 games:
Western Sydney    2
Wellington              3
Draw                      0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.64
Wellington              $6.14
Draw                      $4.37

Market Price:
Western Sydney    $1.36 Sportsbet
Wellington             $8.50 Bet365
Draw                     $5.00 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.27
Wellington              $4.74

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.12 William Hill
Wellington              $7.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.70
Over              $1.59

Market Price:  
Under            $2.70 Bet365
Over              $1.51 Sportsbet

Value:         Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $7.00.
Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $8.50.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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