FULL 2016 Round 21 A-League Preview & Bets

A-League Football

After last weekend the top of the table is really heating up! Western Sydney and Brisbane are both on 35 points with only 1 differential in goal difference. It’s not just a race between them though with Adelaide and Melbourne City hot on their heels, within only one game. The race for the bottom two finals positions is just as interesting, Perth nipping at the heels of Melbourne Victory and Sydney, it makes this weeks “Big Blue” even more interesting. Round 20 kicked off with an exciting match between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide. 90 minutes had passed without a goal and it looked like that was the way the match was going to finish up until Kamau scored the winner in the dying minutes for Adelaide. That win still keeps Adelaide in the hunt for the Premiership. Newcastle hosted Wellington in what always looked like the tightest match of the round. And while it didn’t end in a draw, it was an extremely close. Newcastle ended up getting the win after trailing on two separate occasions. While the season is long over for them, they are starting to show decent signs looking forward to next season. The big Sydney Derby was always going to be a blockbuster, and while it might not lived u to all the hype, it was a good match. Western Sydney took an early lead in the first 15 minutes, from there most thought they might run away with it. Sydney fought back though to tie things up at 1-1. That was the end of the scoring and the game finished in a draw. Perth hosted Brisbane in a match they didn’t start favourite in, but they should of. They’ve been in great form and had no trouble knocking Brisbane down a peg. They were behind at one stage, but ended up winning the match by three goals. The game finished 6-3 and Perth proved that they are a team that should be playing in the finals. The round finished with an easy to tip result. Melbourne City were hosting Central Coast and every man and their dog knew that this game only had one result, three points to Melbourne City. Although Central Coast opened the scoring, their lead didn’t last long. Melbourne City ended up winning the match 4-1 and continued to hold the position towards the top of the table. As the season gets closer to finals, these games get more and more interesting; this week I think Western Sydney/Perth, Adelaide/ Brisbane and Melbourne Victory/Sydney will all be matches you do not want to miss.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 157 selections; I have had 58 winners, 84 losses and 15 pushes. This equates to (at even staking) -9.80 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -6.24%.

Good luck with any bets you have over the weekend.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Perth Glory – Draw No bet – $3.85.
2nd:    Adelaide United/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64.
3rd:    Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.40.
4th:    Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.60.

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City

Friday 26 February, 5:30pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Round 21 starts off with a tight game between Wellington and Melbourne City. Wellington had to travel to Newcastle last week and it was always going to be a close match. After leading the match on two separate occasions they couldn’t come through with the goods and ended up going down 3-2. The season is already over for them, but they still seem to be playing with some zest, which is good to see. Melbourne City had a walk in the park last week when they hosted Central Coast. Unsurprisingly they started a very short priced favourite, and they played up to their price winning the game 4-1. Not much to take out of such an easy match, but at least they got the job done the way they should. This does look a close match, but even though they are on the road, I think I have to give the slight advantage to Melbourne City. This is a match with not a lot of value in it, but I think the best way to attack this match is backing Wellington in the Draw No Bet market; the $2.40 looks enticing.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington            0
Melbourne City    3
Draw                    2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington           $2.95
Melbourne City    $2.53
Draw                    $3.75

Market Price:    
Wellington             $3.20 Unibet
Melbourne City     $2.15 William Hill
Draw                     $3.80 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington             $2.16
Melbourne City      $1.86

Market Price:
Wellington               $2.40 Unibet
Melbourne City       $1.57 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:  
Under                      $3.24
Over                        $1.45

Market Price:    
Under                      $3.15 Unibet
Over                        $1.36 Bet365

Value:         Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.40.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory

Friday 26 February, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium

The biggest game of the weekend in my opinion sees Western Sydney hosting the in-form Perth. Western Sydney dropped a couple of points last week when they played Sydney in the big Derby. The game was at Allianz Stadium so I thought it would be tough for Western Sydney but they didn’t do too bad a job. They led the match early but conceded an own goal which leveled things up at 1-1, and that’s where the game ended. Perth continued their dominant recent form with a big win over Brisbane. After being down 2-1 they managed to come back and win the match 6-3 amazingly. That’s now five wins in a row, and I really do believe they are one of the toughest to teams to beat at the moment. There’s no doubt Western Sydney should be winning this game, they are on top of the table and Perth aren’t even in a finals position (yet), but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as it might seem. I like Perth at the price, especially with money back for a draw and $3.85. They’ve been in such good form; it’s hard to see them losing this match, even though it is against Western Sydney.

Last 5 games:  
Western Sydney    1
Perth                      2
Draw                      2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $2.14
Perth                     $3.81
Draw                     $3.70

Market Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.70 Sportsbet
Perth                     $5.00 Bet365, Unibet
Draw                     $4.20 Bet365

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Western Sydney    $1.56
Perth                     $2.78

Market Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.30 Sportsbet
Perth                     $3.85 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                $2.83
Over                  $1.55

Market Price:    
Under                $2.60 Unibet
Over                  $1.53 Bet365

Value:         Perth Glory – Draw No bet – $3.85.
Perth Glory – Head to Head – $5.00.

Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 27 February, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

Saturday afternoon’s match in Adelaide could possibly decide who is the league leaders by the end of the weekend as Adelaide host Brisbane in a table topping clash. Adelaide was one of the more impressive teams last week as the won away as an underdog. They were playing Melbourne Victory and really had their work cut out for them. It wasn’t easy, and the game looked like it was going to be a draw for all money when it ticked over to injury time with still no score on the board. Shortly after though Kamau got the breakthrough, and in turn, Adelaide got all three points. They are now within two points of the top two teams on the ladder, giving them the chance to go from third to first with a win here. Brisbane had a tough assignment last week, they had Perth away, and in Perth’s current form, fixtures don’t get much harder than this. They managed to lead on two separate occasions, but that was short lived as Perth piled on the goals. They ended up losing 6-3 and got sent home with their tails between their legs. They’ve now dropped back down to second; so they will be desperate to get a win here. I have no doubt Adelaide will be winning this match, I think Brisbane have been struggling a little of late, and Adelaide are flying. I’m happy with their price both Head to Head and in the Draw No Bet market. Game looks to have plenty of goals in it too, so Over 2.5 Goals is another attractive option.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide            2
Brisbane            3
Draw                  0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide             $1.96
Brisbane             $4.11
Draw                   $4.07

Market Price:    
Adelaide               $2.15 Sportsbet, William Hill
Brisbane               $3.30 Bet365
Draw                     $3.60 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide                $1.48
Brisbane                $3.10

Market Price:    
Adelaide                 $1.60 William Hill
Brisbane                 $2.50 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                      $3.13
Over                        $1.47

Market Price:    
Under                      $2.25 Bet365
Over                        $1.64 Sportsbet

Value:         Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.60.
Adelaide United/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64.
Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.15.

Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

Saturday 27 February, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Saturday night is the “Big Blue” and it has never been more important for Melbourne Victory and Sydney as both teams are on the verge of dropping out of a finals position. Melbourne Victory hosted Adelaide in a match last week that the really needed to win, but unfortunately they didn’t. They would of thought they were going to leave the game with at least one point as there hadn’t been a score in the 90 minutes of regular time, but Adelaide ruined their party with an injury time goal. They’re now in desperate trouble of losing their finals place, which for a club like Melbourne Victory, isn’t good enough. Sydney had a solid game last week up against their rivals Western Sydney. They fell behind early in the game but managed to get a goal back to tie it up. But that was where the goal scoring ended and the game finished in a 1-1 draw. Just like Melbourne Victory, Sydney is now in real trouble of dropping out of the top six and will be desperate to get back in the winners circle. Melbourne Victory really should be able to pull out enough here for all three points, but they are four games without a win at the moment, so I’m sure they are starting to get nervous. Melbourne Victory have been struggling to get a win lately, so I think the best value in this fixture is to take Sydney with money back for the draw, at $2.71 I think you could do a lot worse than taking this.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne Victory    3
Sydney                     0
Draw                         2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.26
Sydney                     $3.32
Draw                         $3.91

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory      $2.05 Bet365
Sydney                       $3.60 Everywhere
Draw                           $3.70 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.68
Sydney                     $2.47

Market Price:  
Melbourne Victory    $1.50 Bet365
Sydney                     $2.71 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                $2.49
Over                  $1.67

Market Price:    
Under                $2.05 Sportsbet
Over                  $1.80 Bet365

Value:         Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $2.71.

Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets

Day Date Month, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

I doubt Sundays match is going to draw much in the way of a crowd as two non-finals teams (Central Coast and Newcastle) take on each other, but let’s preview it anyway. Central Coast played Melbourne City last week, and it was the same old story, they looked outclassed on paper, and once they got onto the pitch, they played outclassed. Melbourne City took care of them with relative ease winning the match 4-1. Newcastle showed something last week, they were hosting Wellington and came away with all three points, that’s two wins in the last three weeks. They even trailed at two points in the game, but that didn’t stop them. They ended up taking out the match 3-2. I think Newcastle is the better team, but with the game is at Central Coast, which evens things up. I think it’s a flip of the coin, I rate both teams the exact same price, I can’t split them. I’m actually kind of thankful that there doesn’t look to be any value in this match, I find it hard to trust either team, so sitting this one out suits me just fine.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        2
Newcastle             0
Draw                     3

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $2.80
Newcastle             $2.80
Draw                     $3.48

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $2.50 Sportsbet
Newcastle             $2.88 Bet365
Draw                     $3.60 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $2.00
Newcastle             $2.00

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $1.83 Sportsbet
Newcastle             $2.00 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under              $2.39
Over                $1.72

Market Price:  
Under              $2.45 Sportsbet
Over                $1.57 bet365

Value:         No value.

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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