There were some changes in the ladder this week after Round 22 was completed. The two biggest moves were Adelaide jumping to the top of the table, unsurprisingly after their amazing run of form and Perth finally making into a finals position. The weekend started off with the top of the table (at the time) battle between Brisbane and Western Sydney. Brisbane was the hosts, so naturally started a comfortable favourite and while they did fall behind at one stage of the game, they came through it with a strong 3-2 win. Adelaide travelled to Wellington and played as consistent as they have for the past 3 months and tore the home side apart. It took them about half an hour to score, but once they did the floodgates opened, and they won the match 4-0. Melbourne City and Sydney faced off on Saturday night, in what looked like it could be a tight affair, but it didn’t turn out like that and it was all courtesy of one man, Fornaroli. He scored the only goals of the game, but there were three of them, giving Melbourne City an easy victory. Melbourne Victory traveled to Central Coast, obviously I don’t need to talk much about this one, the Victorians won 2-0. It wasn’t a complete walk in the park for the visitors, but they never looked like getting beaten.
The round finished with another one-sided match-up, this time it was Perth hosting Newcastle. Perth continued on their very strong form with an easy 2-0 win over Newcastle. I’m glad they’ve dragged themselves into a finals position, because they’ve been playing so good, they deserve their chance.
It’s a round of a lot of short priced favourites, I’ve got the first four home teams all rated odds-on, and they’ll all be very hard to beat.
Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 170 selections; I have had 64 winners, 90 losses and 16 pushes. This equates to (at even staking) -9.68 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -5.69%.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.40.
2nd: Perth Glory/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.44.
3rd: Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.00.
4th: Newcastle jets – Draw No Bet – $3.90.
Adelaide United v Melbourne City
Friday 11 March, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Round 23 kicks off on Friday night with the new league leaders Adelaide hosting Melbourne City. Adelaide continued their incredible form with a 4-0 win over Wellington, away! They’ve been awesome over the past few months, dropping very few points, and now they’re deservedly on top of the ladder. They’re doing everything right and will be extremely hard to beat for the rest of the season, especially at home. Melbourne City played a good game last week, they were at home to Sydney, so were expected to win, and they did it comfortably. All honours went to Fornaroli, who bagged himself a hat trick, a rare occurrence in the A-League, he’s three goals were all Melbourne City needed to get the win, with the score finishing at 3-0. Adelaide should be easily winning this match, it will help consolidate their lead at the top of the table, and so they can’t really afford to drop any points. I’m more than happy with the even money on offer for Adelaide at Sportsbet, I think they should be well into odds-on. And if you want to be safe, you could take the $1.50 for Adelaide (Draw No Bet) as they haven’t lost any of their last 14 matches.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Melbourne City 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.79
Melbourne City $4.88
Draw $4.23
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.00 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $3.50 Unibet
Draw $4.00 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.37
Melbourne City $3.70
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.50 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $2.63 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.38
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.65 William Hill
Over $1.50 Unibet
Value: Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.00.
Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.50.
Sydney FC v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 12 March, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
It’s a Saturday triple-header this week with the first game getting under way at 5:15 between Sydney and Wellington. Sydney really let themselves down last week, they were always up against it playing Melbourne City away, but they didn’t show what we all know they can do. They lost the match 3-0, and with that loss, dropped out of a finals position, and with Perth in such good form, they might have lost that spot for good. Wellington was probably the biggest let down of the round, they were hosting Adelaide, and they’ve been playing pretty well at home this season, but they didn’t bring that form to the pitch this week. Adelaide beat them comprehensively 4-0, which puts the nail in the coffin for any hope of them playing finals, it’s onto 2016/17 season for them. Sydney are back at home and have a lot more to play for than Wellington so I’d be very surprised if they didn’t take all three points out of this. As you can probably see below, the market prices are basically the same as my rated prices, meaning there is little to no value in this match in my opinion. Wellington is probably a little bit of overs, but not enough to tempt me in, which is a good thing because they’ll be hard to trust for the remainder of the season.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Wellington 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.72
Wellington $5.59
Draw $4.19
Market Price:
Sydney $1.60 Sportsbet, William Hill
Wellington $6.00 Bet365
Draw $4.33 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.31
Wellington $4.26
Market Price:
Sydney $1.25 Sportsbet
Wellington $4.33 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.38 Unibet
Over $1.62 Sportsbet
Value: No value.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 12 March, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
It’s prime time on Saturday night and we’ve got a prime time match, Melbourne Victory heading north to take on Brisbane in a must win match for the Victorians. Brisbane got the big win that they needed last week when they beat Western Sydney 3-2. If they lost the match, a chance at the Premiership would have been all over. Even more impressive was that with 10 minutes to play they were actually 2-1 down. A couple of late goals gave them all three points and kept the Premiership alive. Melbourne Victory had to travel last week, but it was to Bluetongue Stadium to take on Central Coast. As you can imagine, Melbourne Victory didn’t have too many troubles getting all three points. They’re now a game clear of the finals cut off, but they’ll want to keep on their toes because Perth and Sydney are both desperate to get into those last two finals positions. This looks a very easy match for Brisbane, they have no excuse to lose this, if they do, they don’t deserve to be fighting out the Premiership. I can’t believe the price they went up Brisbane at, $2.40, surely they should be deep in the red. I’m happy to take that price all day.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 1
Melbourne Victory 4
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.64
Melbourne Victory $6.05
Draw $4.45
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.40 William Hill
Melbourne Victory $3.10 Bet365
Draw $3.60 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.27
Melbourne Victory $4.69
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.70 Sportsbet, William Hill
Melbourne Victory $2.20 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.86
Over $1.54
Market Price:
Under $2.28 Unibet
Over $1.63 Sportsbet, William Hill
Value: Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.40.
Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.70.
Perth Glory v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 12 March, 9:40pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
Perth get the easy match-up this week against Central Coast, and they should be able to make it six wins from their last seven games. Perth continued their good form last week when they hosted Newcastle; they had little trouble getting the win. Two goals in the first 50 minutes set up the game for them, allowing them to take it easy for the last half an hour. They’ve been in scintillating form, and that win pushed them up into a deserved finals position. I can’t see them dropping out either, if anything I think they might climb a little higher before the end of the regular season. I really should be copy and pasting what I write about Central Coast each week, but I’m a sucker for punishment. Shock horror, Central Coast lost last week, this time it was Melbourne Victory who got the benefit of the easy three points. For anyone that isn’t watching their games, they’re playing like they know there is nothing to play for (can you blame them). Perth look to be one of the biggest locks I’ve seen on a soccer pitch in a long time, I can’t see them losing this match in any way. The $1.47 on offer is a little bit of value, but a bit skinny for me in a Head to Head market, I think the Over 2.5 Goals is the way to go in this match, should be no issues with 3 or 4 goals getting bagged in this one.
Last 5 games:
Perth 3
Central Coast 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.45
Central Coast $8.91
Draw $5.09
Market Price:
Perth $1.47 William Hill
Central Coast $7.00 Bet365
Draw $4.85 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.16
Central Coast $7.16
Market Price:
Perth $1.17 Sportsbet
Central Coast $5.50 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.68
Over $1.27
Market Price:
Under $2.80 Sportsbet
Over $1.44 Bet365
Value: Perth Glory/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.44.
Newcastle Jets v Western Sydney Wanderers
Sunday 13 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
The last game of the round is also the tightest, Western Sydney are travelling to Newcastle in a match they should win, but it might be tougher for them than most expect. Newcastle had the tough task of heading over to Western Australia last weekend. This is always a hard road trip, but it is especially difficult now with how good Perth have been playing. To be honest, the 2-0 loss wasn’t really all that bad, you couldn’t expect much more from them. Mathematically they are still a hope of playing finals, but the likelihood of that, I’m more likely to step up to a dartboard and throw a 180 (I haven’t picked up a dart in probably 10 years). Western Sydney had to play Brisbane away, and as expected, it was a blockbuster. First Brisbane led, and then Western Sydney led, but at the final whistle is was Brisbane who had their head in front. They started underdogs so it was probably a fair result, but that loss has made the Premiership that much harder for them. They are still probably the favourite for the Plate, but only just ahead of Brisbane and Adelaide. Western Sydney should be able to get the win here, it won’t be super easy for them though, back-to-back road trips never are. I was very surprised to see Western Sydney odds-on; I didn’t think they should be anywhere near that short. At the odds I think I have to be with Newcastle to cause an upset. At $3.90 with your money back for a draw, I think there is a lot worse bets that you could over this weekend.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 1
Western Sydney 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $3.13
Western Sydney $2.44
Draw $3.70
Market Price:
Newcastle $5.50 Bet365
Western Sydney $1.70 Sportsbet
Draw $4.20 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.28
Western Sydney $1.78
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.90 Unibet
Western Sydney $1.30 Sportsbet, William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.30 Bet365
Over $1.63 Sportsbet
Value: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $5.50.
Newcastle jets – Draw No Bet – $3.90.
