A-League Semi Finals Preview & Bets
What a cracking couple of Elimination Finals we had last week, can’t wait to look at what fixtures we now have lined up for the weekend but let’s first review last weeks games.
The finals kicked off in a huge way on Friday night when Adelaide hosted Brisbane. The home side went into the game as a big favourite, and it looked like it was going to be one-way traffic early on when Goodwin scored in the first ten minutes. To Brisbane’s credit though they came back and got a goal of their own, by none other than Broich, one of their bright shining lights of the year. From that point onwards it was a nail biter, with no team scoring for nearly a hour. Then the deadlock was broken with only a few minutes left by Mabil for Brisbane. That was enough to secure the home side a Semi Final birth the next week in what will be a blockbuster against Sydney.
While the first Elimination Final went pretty much to script, we can’t say the same about the second one. Melbourne City had to travel to New Zealand to take on Wellington, and I, along with most, thought they’d be sent home empty handed, but it was quite the opposite. The first half was a tough back-and-forth battle with the teams looking evenly matched; they went into the first break 0-0, the second half was a different story though. Courtesy of Kennedy and Novillo, Melbourne City became 2-0 up, and they managed to hold that score line all the way to final whistle. It was some performance by the visitors and they are doing everything right heading into the Semi Final where they’ll meet their across town rival Melbourne Victory.
The Elimination Finals were action packed and I’m expecting even bigger things from the Semi Finals. Both of these games would make great Grand Finals in their own right, but for different reasons.
It couldn’t of turned out much better, Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City will battle it out for a place in the A-League Grand Final. If the Melbourne Derby wasn’t fiery enough, it will be epic this time around. You’d be surprised if there is an empty seat in Etihad Stadium, even if you’re not a huge A-League (or even soccer) fan I’d encourage you to get down there if you live in Melbourne, the atmosphere will be nuts.
I think most will admit that Sydney and Adelaide, along with Melbourne Victory, have been the top clubs this season, so it’s only fitting that the other Semi Final see’s these other two teams face off. Sydney will go in as big favourites but it isn’t that east for them, Adelaide has been in great form and deserves to have a chance to make the Grand Final. I think we’ll see some very strong/tough football in this fixture; nothing will be left on the sidelines.
Can’t wait to watch these two games this weekend, especially the Derby, I got my ticket as soon as they went on sale. I look forward to reviewing these games next week and can’t wait for the Grand Final.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.20.
2nd: Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $1.57.
3rd: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $4.50.
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
Friday 8 May, 7:30pm – Etihad Stadium
I can imagine that anybody who attends this fixture on Friday night will swear that it was the Grand Final, because there is no doubt that the atmosphere in Etihad Stadium will be electric. For the first time Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City meet in a finals game. Anyone that’s been to a Melbourne Derby knows how crazy these games can get, and if you add in a spot in the Grand Final, I hope they have the roof open because if they don’t the crowd might blow it off. Melbourne Victory are coming into this game off the perfect preparation, after finishing on top of the ladder they earned themselves a break last week and they’ll be fresh to fire in this Semi Final. Their last game was when they hosted Central Coast and they made short work of them and ended up winning 3-1 in a breeze. Melbourne City is the surprise packet of the Semi Finals, most thought that Wellington would of advanced out of their fixture last week, but most people were wrong. Melbourne City played a great game in Wellington, taking it to them the whole game and coming away with a comprehensive 2-0 win. Their form prior to that match isn’t great, but off last week who knows what they are capable of. On paper this game favours heavily in Melbourne Victory’s advantage, they’ve got better form, play better at home and have a significant head to head record against Melbourne City, but it’s not always that black and white. Melbourne Derby’s know how to throw up an unusual result, it was only six months ago that Melbourne City won one of these fixtures, even when the form didn’t suggest they could. The bookmakers are running at pretty competitive prices for this game, they’ve got Victory at $1.95, only marginally shorter than my rated price of $2.01, and then they have City at $4.50, when I think they should be down at $4.11. I’m as shocked as anybody, but I actually think Melbourne City do appear to be the value in the match, no doubt I think that Melbourne Victory should be clear favourite and most likely to win, but at the price I think you have to go with City (@TheProfitsComAu knows how hard it was for me to write this).
Last 9 games:
Melbourne Victory 6
Draw 1
Melbourne City 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.01
Draw $3.87
Melbourne City $4.11
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.95 bet365
Draw $3.75 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $4.50 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.49
Melbourne City $3.04
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.44 Bet365
Melbourne City $3.12 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.65
Under $2.54
Market Price:
Over $1.75 Sportsbet
Under $2.10 Bet365
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $4.50.
Sydney FC v Adelaide United
Saturday 9 May, 7:30pm – Allianz Stadium
After what will have been a thrilling match Friday night, we head into Saturday with a fixture that looks just as exciting. We’ll get to see the in-form Adelaide United head to Allianz Stadium to take on Sydney FC. Sydney had a great season and ended up finishing second on the ladder to get themselves a little break last week. Getting that week off is vital and gives them a big advantage going into this Semi Final. They haven’t dropped a point in their last three matches including a great away win to Wellington two weeks ago. On that occasion they controlled the match from the get go, and after scoring a couple of goals the result was never going to be in doubt. Adelaide have been playing great football too and that came to the fore last week when they hosted Brisbane in the first Elimination Final. They scored early, but Brisbane equalized shortly after, then it was a arm wrestle for the remainder of the game until Mabil came to their rescue, banging home a goal in the final minutes to secure themselves a place in this game. While Adelaide have been in good form, and have one of the better away records in the league, I think Sydney at home are just going to be too strong. I can actually see Sydney winning this one fairly comprehensively, scoring early and taking control from then on. Couldn’t believe my luck when I checked out the prices, I fully expected Sydney to be odds-on, and when I came across Bet365 offering $2.20 I thought it was too good to be true. This looks a great price for a match that I think is pretty one-sided. If you want to be a bit more precautious I think the Draw No Bet option is a good one too, it may be short, but still looks value to my eye.
Last 10 games:
Sydney 1
Draw 2
Adelaide 7
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.91
Draw $3.89
Adelaide $4.58
Market Price:
Sydney $2.20 Bet365
Draw $3.40 Everywhere
Adelaide $3.30 William hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.42
Adelaide $3.40
Market Price
Sydney $1.57 Everywhere
Adelaide $2.40 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.84
Under $2.18
Market Price:
Over $1.80 Unibet
Under $2.05 Bet365
Value: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.20.
Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $1.57.
