A-League 2017/18 – Round 15

A-League

Best Value

Wellington – Head to Head – $4.20

I know it’s a bit of a long shot, but I really do think Wellington has a decent shot at Melbourne Victory this week. Melbourne Victory is coming off a shock draw, now only four days later they must travel to New Zealand to face Wellington, it’s not the ideal prep. You could probably save on Over 2.5 Goals in the match as that looks a lock.

 

Next Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $3.25

Perth at $3.25 is great shopping for mine. I know they struggled last week, but they really should bounce back here. Their home record is one of the best in the league over the past 12 months, and Melbourne City are no world beaters.

 

1st       Wellington – Head to Head – $4.20

2nd:       Perth – Head to Head – $3.25

3rd:        Wellington/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71

4th:        Perth/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

 

Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC

Monday 8 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

Our midweek round kicks off on Monday night at Suncorp Stadium as Brisbane host Sydney. Brisbane played below par last week when hosting Western Sydney. They went into the match as the clear favourite but could never break down Western Sydney’s defenses well enough to score. They ended up going down 2-0 when the final whistle was blown. Sydney were disappointing too last week when they could only manage a draw against Newcastle. They were expected to win the match, but as they were behind 2-1 with only minutes remaining, I’m sure they’ll take the one point out of the match. Newcastle is proving themselves as a top team, so maybe the performance wasn’t all that bad. Sydney are obviously the team to beat, but they will want to play better than last week to get the win here. This looks a tough match to make money out of, Sydney look unders, but it’s tough to tip Brisbane. I think Under 2.5 Goals is the best option from the match, but I could be tempted to have a tiny nibble on Brisbane at the big price.

 

Last 5 games:

Brisbane                          1

Sydney                              2

Draw                                 2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:

Brisbane                          $5.63

Sydney                             $1.70

Draw                                $4.28

 

Market Price: 

Brisbane                          $6.50 Sportsbet

Sydney                              $1.55 Everywhere

Draw                                $4.30 Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Brisbane                          $4.31

Sydney                             $1.30

 

Market Price:  

Brisbane                          $4.60 Sportsbet, Unibet

Sydney                              $1.22 Ladbrokes

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:

Under                               $2.00

Over                                  $2.00

 

Market Price:  

Under                               $2.25 Ubet

Over                                  $1.65 Sportsbet

 

Value:                Brisbane – Head to Head – $6.50

                             Brisbane/Sydney – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.25

 

 

Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners

Tuesday 9 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

As crazy as it sounds we have a Tuesday night double header this week, first up its Newcastle vs Central Coast. Last week Newcastle showed a lot of guts when they played Sydney on the road. Obviously, they were the underdog in the match, even though they’ve been in great form, mainly because Sydney has been the benchmark for the past 18 months. They almost pulled off a miraculous victory too, but Bobo ruined the party for them by equalizing for Sydney very late in the game to bring the score to 2-2, it was a great effort from Newcastle none the less. Central Coast pulled off a surprising draw as well when they played Melbourne Victory. They were away, but as the game was played in Geelong it was kind of “away” for both sides. I’’m not sure if they can play more games like that, but if they can they’ll win more mathes. This looks the most clear-cut game of the round to me, Newcastle should just win. I’m more than happy to dive in at the $1.72 that’s currently available too.

 

Last 5 games: 

Newcastle                       2

Central Coast                 1

Draw                                 2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Newcastle                       $1.55

Central Coast                 $7.12

Draw                                $4.68

 

Market Price: 

Newcastle                       $1.72 William hill, Sportsbet

Central Coast                 $5.10 Unibet

Draw                                $4.00 Everywhere

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Newcastle                       $1.22

Central Coast                 $5.60

 

Market Price:

Newcastle                       $1.29 Ladbrokes

Central Coast                 $3.95 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $2.21

Over                                  $1.83

 

Market Price:  

Under                               $2.07 Bet365

Over                                  $1.75

 

Value:                Newcastle – Head to Head – $1.72

 

 

Perth Glory v Melbourne City

Tuesday 9 January, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

The late game Tuesday night is over in WA as Perth and Melbourne City go head to head. Perth were demoralized on Friday when they hosted Adelaide. That were the clear favourite for the match, and most thought that they’d get the job done. They didn’t even come close though, losing 3-0 in the end. Adelaide scored the first goal of the match early, and from then Perth looked to always struggle. Melbourne City had a come from behind win on the weekend when they hosted Wellington. Wellington scored in the first half while Melbourne City didn’t get on to the board until deep in the second. Thankfully for them McCormack who scored their first thought he’d bang in another shortly after, giving them the 2-1 win. Tough game, but I’m giving the edge to Perth, hoping that they can bounce back after their shock loss last round. Keen to bet up on them too at the price, bookies have got Melbourne City as the clear favourite, but I have the odds flipped.

 

Last 5 games:  

Perth                                 4

Melbourne City            0

Draw                                 1

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:    

Perth                                 $2.21

Melbourne City            $3.44

Draw                                $3.89

 

Market Price:  

Perth                                 $3.25 Bet365

Melbourne City            $2.25 Sportsbet

Draw                                $3.55 Ubet

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:  

Perth                                 $1.64

Melbourne City            $2.56

 

Market Price:  

Perth                                 $2.35 Ubet

Melbourne City            $1.62 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $4.13

Over                                  $1.32

 

Market Price: 

Under                               $2.10 William Hill

Over                                  $1.75 Ubet

 

Value:                Perth – Head to Head – $3.25

                             Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.35

                             Perth/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75

 

 

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory

Wednesday 10 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

We have another double header on Wednesday, the first game gets started a little early as it’s being played over in New Zealand. Wellington put in a good showing against Melbourne City in Round 14, but unfortunately came away empty handed. They were playing away, but when Krishna gave them the lead it gave them hope. They held the 1-0 for half an hour, but unfortunately Melbourne City ran over them late, still a good effort and a sign that they might be starting to play some better football. Melbourne Victory’s draw last Saturday was probably the shock of the round. They were hosting Central Coast (granted the game was played in Geelong) so the three points would have been chalked down before they even hit the pitch. It took them until the second half but they finally broke the deadlock, but they only held that lead for 20 minutes until Powell levelled things up for Central Coast. As hard as Melbourne Victory tried, they couldn’t find another goal, and had to settle for the one point. On ratings, I couldn’t split these two sides, Melbourne Victory obviously have the better side on paper, but that doesn’t always play out on the pitch, especially when a long road trip is involved. Market is heavily favouring Melbourne Victory, so I’ve got to be on Wellington, at $4.20 they are just too a big a price. The Draw No Bet market is probably the safer option to go for, and even Over 2.5 Goals is looking good.

 

Last 5 games: 

Wellington                     2

Melbourne Victory      3

Draw                                 0

 

Head to Head

Rated Price: 

Wellington                     $2.75

Melbourne Victory      $2.75

Draw                                $3.67

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                     $4.20 Bet365, William Hill

Melbourne Victory      $1.88 Unibet

Draw                                $3.85 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Wellington                     $2.00

Melbourne Victory      $2.00

 

Market Price: 

Wellington                     $2.93 Sportsbet

Melbourne Victory      $1.41 Unibet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  

Under                               $5.06

Over                                  $1.25

 

Market Price: 

Under                               $2.25 Ubet

Over                                  $1.71 Sportsbet

 

Value:                Wellington – Head to Head – $4.20

                             Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.93

                             Wellington/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71

 

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United

Wednesday 10 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium

Last game of Round 15 is Western Sydney and Adelaide who fight it out on Wednesday night at ANZ Stadium. Western Sydney showed some good form with a 2-0 road win against Brisbane last Friday. Prior to the game, it looked like it would be a tight one, but they took control early in the match and never looked back. That win took them up to sixth spot on the table, so they’ll be looking to build on that, and move further up the ladder. Adelaide surprised me last week with their away win to Perth. They always had a chance, but the 3-0 win they delivered was out of character. Their form has been patchy thus far this season, but if they can reproduce that form more often than not they should continue well into the pointy end of the year. Western Sydney for me, it was a good win last week, and back at home this time should improve them even further. $2.40 seems more than a fair price as well, doubt they’ll start that long on the night.

 

Last 5 games: 

Western Sydney           1

Adelaide                          2

Draw                                 2

 

Head to Head

Rated Price:  

Western Sydney           $1.87

Adelaide                          $4.65

Draw                                $3.98

 

Market Price:  

Western Sydney           $2.40 Ubet

Adelaide                          $2.95 Unibet

Draw                                $3.60 Bet365

 

Draw No Bet

Rated Price: 

Western Sydney           $1.40

Adelaide                          $3.48

 

Market Price: 

Western Sydney           $1.75 Ubet

Adelaide                          $2.22 Sportsbet

 

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price: 

Under                               $1.98

Over                                  $2.02

 

Market Price:

Under                               $1.95 Bet365

Over                                  $1.90 William Hill, Ubet

 

Value:                Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.40

                             Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.75

 

 

 

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

Leave a Reply