A-League 2017/18 – Round 5

A-League

Best Value

Wellington – Draw No Bet- $2.62

Best bet is Wellington with the draw insurance. I think Newcastle have been playing out of their skin lately, but that form is due to drop off, but the market is still very firm on them. Wellington will give a great show and at better than $2.50 with the insurance is a luxury.

Next Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $2.20

I’m a sucker for Perth at home, their home and away form is so far apart but the market never reflects that in my opinion. They’re often too long at home and too short on the road. This being at home, and against a very average Adelaide side so far this season, the $2.20 will do me every day of the week.

Best Value:

1st: Wellington – Draw No Bet- $2.62
2nd: Perth – Head to Head – $2.20
3rd: Brisbane – Head to Head – $1.90
4th: Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.50

Melbourne City v Sydney FC

Friday 3 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

The round opens with the blockbuster this week as Melbourne City and Sydney go head to head at AAMI Park. Melbourne City got the job done against Adelaide last Saturday when they played at Hindmarsh Stadium. That 2-0 win proved they were the real deal and one of the teams to beat this season. They’re now four from four, and looking very intimidating. Sydney as you would expect won with relative ease in Round 4 as they were up against Perth. They won the game 2-0, scoring both of their goals in injury time, one in the first half and one in the second. Along with Melbourne City, these are the best two teams going around early in the season. Really tough game to split the two sides, but if I was forced to pick one or the other I give the slight nod to Sydney, I think. After assessing the marketplace I was shocked to see Sydney so short, doesn’t everyone know Melbourne City haven’t dropped a point yet right? At the odds I have to be with Melbourne City, but I think I’d play it safe in the Draw No Bet market rather than straight out.

Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 1
Sydney 1
Draw 3

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Melbourne City $2.97
Sydney $2.58
Draw $3.62

Market Price:
Melbourne City $3.50 Bet365
Sydney $2.14 Unibet
Draw $3.55 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Melbourne City $2.15
Sydney $1.87

Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.50 Bet365, William Hill
Sydney $1.56 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under $2.26
Over $1.79

Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365
Over $1.85 Palmerbet

Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $3.50

            Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.50 

Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 4 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Newcastle host Wellington on Saturday night in what looks an interesting match. Newcastle had Western Sydney last week and after only a short amount of time they slipped 1-0 behind. They trailed for a long period but in the second half Petratos found an equaliser for them that they desperately needed. They then locked the game down to the final whistle, earning them a nice point. Wellington was at home to Brisbane last week and after 20 minutes they were 3-0 up. After this I infamously tweeted out how my best bet of the weekend was home already. Well, I put a mighty mozz on them as Brisbane somehow came back to level things up. The game finished at 3-3 and Wellington had to settle for just the one point when they really should have had all three. This looks another tight game, even after last week’s performance I’m still leaning towards Wellington. The price is good enough for me to jump in too, but still with last weeks match on my mind I’m going to go with the $2.62 available in the Draw No Bet market.

Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Wellington 2
Draw 1

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.93
Wellington $2.56
Draw $3.73

Market Price:
Newcastle $2.04 Unibet
Wellington $3.50 Everywhere
Draw $3.65 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.14
Wellington $1.87

Market Price:
Newcastle $1.50 William Hill, Unibet
Wellington $2.62 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under $2.84
Over $1.54

Market Price:
Under $2.38 Unibet
Over $1.61 Palmerbet, Sportsbet

Value: Wellington – Draw No Bet- $2.62
           Wellington – Head to Head – $3.50 

Perth Glory v Adelaide United

Saturday 4 November, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

This match on Saturday comes very late in the day as it’s being played out west at NIB Stadium between Perth and Adelaide. Perth played Sydney away last week, so it was almost inevitable that they would came away with a loss. Not only is Sydney one of the best sides going around, we all know how much Perth struggle on the road. The 2-0 loss is pretty much exactly what I expected to happen. Although Adelaide had the tough task of facing league leaders Melbourne City, they were at home so the fact that all they could only post was a 2-0 loss was a little disappointing. It looks like they could have another tough season ahead of them. Back at home I think Perth get the job done pretty easily. And the $2.20 looks really enticing to me; I have them rated well into odds-on.

Last 5 games:
Perth 2
Adelaide 2
Draw 1

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Perth $1.73
Adelaide $5.35
Draw $4.23

Market Price:
Perth $2.20 Bet365
Adelaide $3.20 Everywhere
Draw $3.65 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Perth $1.32
Adelaide $4.09

Market Price:
Perth $1.58 Palmerbet, Unibet
Adelaide $2.50 Sportbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under $2.81
Over $1.55

Market Price:
Under $2.38 Unibet
Over $1.61 Palmerbet

Value: Perth – Head to Head – $2.20
           Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.58

Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday 5 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

The sole match on Sunday comes to us from Suncorp Stadium as Brisbane and Central Coast both try to find their first win of the season. Brisbane had one of the most amazing draws you’ll ever season. Less than a quarter of the way through the match they had gotten themselves into a very sticky position, 3-0 behind. They didn’t give up though, and slowly came back and eventually tie things up late in the match. They couldn’t muster any more goals so settled for a draw, but it was a point that I’m sure they thought was long gone early in the match. Central Coast had one hell of a draw too, against Melbourne Victory who they were a long price underdog against. They actually took the lead early in the second half thanks to ex-Victory player Pain. Melbourne Victory leveled up though, so both teams shared the points. Brisbane surely win this, surely they do, don’t they? If they can’t get three points out of this fixture, they might as well pack their bags and leave the A-League, cause they don’t get any easier than this. $1.90, that’s good enough for me, if I don’t collect, I don’t think Brisbane will get another cent of mine this season.

Last 5 games:
Brisbane 5
Central Coast 0
Draw 0

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.54
Central Coast $6.97
Draw $4.81

Market Price:
Brisbane $1.90 TopBetta
Central Coast $3.85 Unibet
Draw $4.20 William Hill

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.22
Central Coast $5.52

Market Price:
Brisbane $1.41 Palmerbet
Central Coast $3.00 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under $2.85
Over $1.50

Market Price:
Under $3.00 William Hill, Unibet
Over $1.43 Palmerbet

Value: Brisbane – Head to Head – $1.90
           Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.41

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers

Monday 7 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium

We get a rare Monday night game this round as the Melbourne Cup is on the following day. Melbourne Victory and Western Sydney should get a bumper crowd for this one too being on a Monday. What do we make of Melbourne Victory, we’re now four games into the season and after their draw against Central Coast, they’re still yet to post a win. I don’t know what to make of them, they will surely turn their form around soon; I’m not sure when though. Central Coast weren’t lucky to get the draw against them last week either; they held their own the whole match. At least Melbourne Victory came back after falling behind, it would if been terrible for them to get nothing out of that fixture. Western Sydney had Newcastle last week, who have been in relatively decent form and the match was at Hunter Stadium, so it was never going to be a walk in the park for them. They got an early lead and held that for sometime, but Newcastle came back to level things up in the last half an hour. They couldn’t get another goal so had to settle for a draw, which was probably a fitting result. Tough game, but Melbourne Victory really shouldn’t lose here; imagine it will be a draw at worst for them, most likely a win. That being the case I’m keen to take the $1.80 for them in the Draw No Bet market, surely you can’t really go wrong there.

Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Western Sydney 0
Draw 2

Head to Head

Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.21
Western Sydney $3.54
Draw $3.78

Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.40 Everywhere
Western Sydney $2.80 Unibet
Draw $3.60 Bet365

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.63
Western Sydney $2.60

Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.80 Bet365
Western Sydney $2.07 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62

Market Price:
Under $2.15 Palmerbet
Over $1.71 Palmerbet, Unibet

Value: Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.80

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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