Welcome to the A-League Grand Final 2017 as the game kicks off on Sunday between Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory at Allianz Stadium and The Profits A-League expert previews the match and shares his best bets.
Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory
Sunday 7 May, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Finally, after 139 games, we’ve come to the big one, the Grand Final. And isn’t it great to see the two best teams throughout the 2016/17 facing off this Sunday afternoon. The all conquering Sydney have earned home ground advantage for the big match which will be a much needed boost for them as their opponents Melbourne Victory are in great form and won’t want to finish the season empty handed.
Sydney has got the better of Melbourne Victory on all three occasions they’ve met this season, two 2-1 wins, and a 1-0 win last fixture a couple of months ago. Even though Sydney won all three games, each one was only by a solitary goal, so it shows that there isn’t a lot between these teams.
Sydney played their Semi Final on Saturday night against Perth, and they came out meaning business. Brillante opened the scoring for them early in the game, but they didn’t stop there. Before the half-time whistle Buijs and Holosko netted a couple more, giving Sydney a dominating 3-0 lead going into the break. In the second half they played a strong, defensive game and really shut Perth down from making any kind of comeback. Perth amazingly only had one shot on target for the whole game, proving that Sydney has the best backline in the A-League.
Melbourne Victory were far less dominate in their Semi Final, but they got the job done, and that’s all that really matters. Throughout the match you’d say Melbourne Victory had the better of the chances, but they never looked 100% comfortable, especially down back. Thankfully for their fans though they held strong in the tough moments. It took a long time, but when the opportunity came for Berisha he didn’t let it past him. With only twenty minutes left on the clock Ben Khalfallah flicked in a slick cross and Berisha met it with a header that you could watch on replay all day. It hit the back of the net and AAMI Park erupted. Melbourne Victory slowed the play from then on, and controlled the ball for the rest of the game.
I hope it’s a close Grand Final, and we get a great match, but the fact of the matter is it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see more domination from Sydney. They haven’t dropped a point at home since January, and I think people are forgetting that they only lost one game for the whole season. That is as impressive a season as you see, and if they don’t add the Championship to their Premiership for the 2016/17 season, they will have underperformed.
As unfortunate as it is, at the current market prices I’m not keen to back either team. There’s no chance that Melbourne Victory will get out to a backable price, but if Sydney blow out to $1.90 I’d be happy to back them, this does looks the most likely play for the game.
Even though there’s some quality Melbourne Victory players at juicy prices for First Goal Scorer I’d stay away. Against Sydney’s defense chances of any Melbourne Victory player scoring at all is minimal, let alone the first goal, and players like Brosque, Simon and Ibini might be where the value lies.
While I only calculate ratings for the Head to Head, Draw No Bet and Over/Under markets, I’ve noted down some odds of other popular markets below, and which bookies the best prices are at.
I’ve hoped you’ve enjoyed the A-League season reading along over the past eight months. There’ll be a post Grand Final review as well as a 2016/17 review in the coming weeks too if you would like a read.
Thanks again
@AL_TheProfits
Last 15 games:
Sydney 5
Melbourne Victory 4
Draw 6
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.73
Melbourne Victory $5.45
Draw $4.18
Market Price:
Sydney $1.80 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $4.75 Bet365
Draw $4.00 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.32
Melbourne Victory $4.15
Market Price:
Sydney $1.32 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $3.55 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.03
Over $1.97
Market Price:
Under $2.10 Unibet
Over $1.77 Sportsbet
First Goal Scorer
Bobo $6.00 Sportsbet
Holosko $7.50 Bet365, Sportsbet
Brosque $7.50 Sportsbet
Berisha $8.00 Sportsbet
Simon $8.50 Sportsbet, Unibet
Ibini $9.00 Sportsbet, Bet365
Ninkovic $11.00 Sportsbet
Carney $13.00 Sportsbet, Bet365
Blackwood $13.00 Sportsbet, Bet365
Rojas $13.00 Sportsbet
Troisi $15.00 Sportsbet
Howard $17.00 Sportsbet
To Lift The Trophy
Sydney $1.37 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $3.10 Bet365
Half Time/Full Time
Sydney/Sydney $2.80 Sportsbet, Unibet
Draw/Sydney $5.00 Sportsbet
Draw/Draw $6.00 Bet365
Victory/Victory $7.50 Everywhere
Draw/Victory $10.00 Bet365, Unibet
Victory/Draw $15.00 Bet365, Unibet
Sydney/Draw $15.00 Bet365, Unibet
Victory/Sydney $22.00 Unibet
Sydney/Victory $41.00 Everywhere
Both Teams To Score
Yes $1.70 Bet365, TopBetta
No $2.20 Unibet
To Have A Clean Sheet
Sydney $2.60 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $5.00 Sportsbet
