2016 AFL Round 2 Preview & Bets

AFL 2017

The start of the season always throws up a few unexpected results and that is what we were delivered the Hawks going down to the improved Cats while the Pies and Dockers were beaten beyond comprehension. The Blues also looked much better than expected taking the Tigers to the limit in the first game of the round while the Giants also look to take the first steps towards a top 8 birth doing everything apart from winning in Round 1.
The second round of the season has given us quite a few opportunities to bet with confidence and quite a few games, especially in the first few days of the round, to bet around based on unpredictability.

Best Bet
North Melbourne -25.5 Line @ $1.92

Next Best Bet
Geelong -15.5 Line @ $1.92

Collingwood ($2.30) VS Richmond ($1.62)

@ MCG, Friday 1/04/2016, 7.50pm AEST
Line: Pies +7.5, Tigers -7.5
The Pies and Tigers came into the season with high hopes, but supporters were left quite disappointed after the round 1 efforts.
The Collingwood result in week 1 was well out of the ordinary. The disposal per goal number of 47.71 is one of the highest you will see for a long time, but it was bettered by Fremantle who needed 68 disposals per goal against the Bulldogs. In comparison, Essendon were the third worst with 42.56 disposal per goal, GWS were the fourth worst with 37.10 disposals per goal while the Tigers opponents Carlton were fifth worst with 31.33 disposals per goal. The Pies showed a lot more in the pre-season than they did on the field last Saturday and I’m willing to just wipe off that poor effort as a one off when combined with losing Swan to injury so early.
The Tigers effort against the Blues in week 1 was not anything to brag about. They were behind for the first three quarters and got over the line in the fourth against a team that is expected to finish in the bottom 4 this year. The tigers converted at 23.71 disposals per goal, meaning they were well more effective with the ball than the Blues as well as a 63.6% conversion rate which helped get them over the line in the end. The Tigers had 11 fewer Inside 50s than the Blues and allowed far too many marks around the ground. The Tigers Inside 50s Per Goal figure concerns me heading into this game.
As we have seen the last few years, allegations have a huge effect on a teams performance and the media had been all over the Pies heading into last weeks game. I’m convinced the Pies are worth a second chance coming off a write-off game against the Swans.

COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 17 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Collingwood +7.5 Line @ $1.92
Collingwood 1-24 Winning Margin @ $3.80

Adelaide ($2.35) VS Port Adelaide ($1.60)

@ Adelaide Oval, Saturday 2/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Crows +8.5, Power -8.5
An interesting contest between the two Adelaide teams, it’s interesting to note that the Power failed to cover the line last week against an inexperienced St Kilda team while the Crows pushed the Roos all the way at Etihad Stadium and covered the +13.5 line, having gone into the final term up by a point (kicked one goal five behinds in the final qtr).
Port Adelaide’s effort in week 1 was ‘solid’ without being overly impressive. Having just 5 players with under 50 games experience against a St Kilda team with 10 players with under 50 games, you expected with the limited interchanges that the Power would come home strongly as they did. The Power’s all round game on the stats sheet is hard to question with 106 tackles, 1.85 inside 50s per scoring shot and a 60.6% conversion rate in front of goal. They broke the under 20 disposals per goal line which is hard to do and can be put down to the St Kilda’s limited defensive capabilities, young bodies and game plan.
Adelaide come into this off a loss, but they got a tick on my sheet to suggest the effort was better than ordinary. Adelaide allowed the Roos to take too many marks around the ground but will meet a Power team that it shouldn’t matter much against. The concern stat was the Crows 63 tackles compared to the Roos 82. I’d expect improvement in this area especially against this Power team. The Crows won the inside 50s, but the 51.9% conversion rate was the difference between winning and losing, especially in the last QTR.
The bookies have the line just about where I’d expect it to be with both teams coming off similar results.

ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 2 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Adelaide +8.5 Line @ $1.92
Tribet Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ $2.75

Essendon ($7.00) VS Melbourne ($1.10)

@ MCG, Saturday 2/04/2016, 2.10pm AEST
Line: Dons +41.5, Demons -41.5
We all in/over experienced Essendon team to struggle in round one with our Best Bet against them at the line, but they were smashed, as expected. The Dons had 12 players with less than 50 games on the ground last weekend, but just 5 players with 50-149 games. It’s safe to say the effort we saw was worse than what most were expecting. They went at 42.56 disposals per goal and were -26 inside 50s for the match. They went at -31 tackles and the opposition had more than double the number of shots on goal.
The Demons started the year on a high by knocking off the Giants as underdogs. There was a fair bit of luck involved in that win when you break the numbers down with the Giants kicking inefficiency the ultimate game decider with 10 goals 18 behinds compared with the Demons 12 goals 8 behinds, 8 more shots on target. So it’s no surprise that GWS had the third highest disposals per goal ratio in week 1 while the Demons came in at about seventh. The figure that’s deeply concerning for the Demons is how they won the Inside 50 count by 6, yet allowed the Giants to have 8 more shots on goal, showing their game plan still has a bit of work to come. The Giants scored 52% of the time they came inside 50 which is just unacceptable. Even the Bombers only allowed a 50.0% Inside 50s per Goal rate.
I’m really concerned with how the Demons played in the second and third QTRs last week in how they managed a total of 1 goal 5 behinds in two QTRs of football and allowed 5 goals 10 behinds to be kicked against themselves. Straight kicking in the last is what got them over the line.

MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 28 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Essendon +41.5 Line @ $1.92
Line – 3rd Quarter Only Essendon +10.5 @ $1.88

Brisbane ($4.00) VS North Melbourne ($1.25)

@ GABBA, Saturday 2/04/2016, 4:35pm AEST
Line: Lions +25.5, Roos -25.5
The Lions matched up poorly against the Eagles last week and while it did show on the scoreboard, they did reach over 100 points for the game which is certainly something. Brisbane lined up with no players with 150 or more games last week which says a lot about the maturity of the team coming into this today. Brisbane got hammered on the free kick count (shock horror over in the west) and had just 56 marks for the match while allowing the Eagles 121 which is deeply concerning. Even with that in mind, winning the tackle count by just 15 is not good enough. Brisbane were smashed in the hitouts with 28 to the Eagles 61 which was telling for most of the match. The 21.53 disposals per goal is a positive out of the match with 45 inside 50s, but they allowed the Eagles 64 inside 50s and a 72.2% conversion rate. If they are looking for a shootout today, the Roos are a team that are up for the challenge.
A slow start made it a tough task for the Roos at home against the Crows last week, but thanks to straight shooting and a strong last QTR, the Roos got the line by 10 points, failing to beat the bookies line of 13.5. The Roos were efficient in a tough fought win with the ball in hand and Goldstein will welcome an easier opponent in the ruck this week. The Roos will be looking to capitalise on what the Eagles did right last week in the marking department, coming into this match with 11 players with 150 or more games experience, they will be up for a tough contest.

NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 44 POINTS

Bets to Consider
North Melbourne -25.5 Line @ $1.92
North Melbourne Lead at Every Quarter @ $1.92

St Kilda ($4.00) VS Western Bulldogs ($1.25)

@ Etihad Stadium, Saturday 2/04/2016, 7:25pm AEST
Line: Saints +26.5, Bulldogs -26.5
The Saints put in a very bold performance against the Power last week going toe-to-toe with the Power, but the interchange restrictions and a less mature team took its toll with the Power winning the final QTR by 39 points. The Saints were out tackled last week by 34, won the Hitouts by 17 and converted very well at 60% with 15 goals, 5 behinds and 5 rushed behinds. The Saints were kept to a goal per 3.87 Inside 50s which tells of the tough defensive game last week. The Bulldogs kept the Dockers to 6.00 goals per Inside 50s last week and will be a tougher test.
The Bulldogs went in as -7.5 favourites against a well-considered Top 4 contender in the Fremantle Dockers last week and made a mincemeat of them with a 65 point victory.
The Saints will be no push-over, but the Saints have had to travel back from Adelaide with a six-day back-up. It’s hard to see them hanging in this one all the way and the Bulldogs should take care of them in a very comfortable manner.

WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 37 Points

Bets to Consider
Western Bulldogs -26.5 Line @ $1.92

Fremantle ($1.16) VS Gold Coast ($5.25)

@ Domain Stadium, Saturday 2/04/2016, 7.40pm AEST
Line: Dockers -34.5, +34.5 Suns
The Dockers were sent packing in week one with their tails between their legs after an absolute thumping at the hands of the Bulldogs. The Dockers had just 13 shots on goal and were totally out-possessed the entire game. Even worse, they shot at 38.5% conversion rate in total and a horrible 68 disposals per goal from 30 inside 50s. Just like with the Pies, I think we just erase from memory that horrible performance against a team that looks like it will finish top 4 this year. Back at home, expect a much better performance from the first bounce.
The Suns did as what we all expected last week, they got the job done against a shockingly poor Essendon. They travel to the other side of Australia to battle Fremantle. The Suns got a lot of practise in last week before turning the pressure down in the final QTR, bringing them into this game without a total gut buster first up. The ruck contest will be the one area of weakness for the Suns heading into this game where the Dockers will be able to take full advantage to gain control of the midfield. The Suns will need to kick straighter this week to be a chance.
The last contest between these two teams saw just 6 points in the result, while the previous meeting over in the West saw the Dockers win by 48. While the Dockers will bounce back this week, the Suns will have improvement to come also on that Round 1 effort. A win for the Suns here wouldn’t shock me at all, but I find it hard to tip against this Dockers team at home against a Suns team that isn’t proven to be a top 6 prospect just yet. The past three matches between these two teams have come up well below the suggested line today.

FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 20 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Gold Coast +34.5 Line @ $1.92
Total Game Points Under 173.5 @ $1.92

Greater Western Sydney ($2.75) VS Geelong ($1.45)

@ Manuka Oval, Sunday 3/04/2016, 1.10pm AEST
Line: Giants +15.5, Cats -15.5
The Cats were sensational on Monday with a dominating 30-point victory over the Hawks at the MCG. The Third QTR was certainly a worry when we look back with just the three points scored compared with the 5 goals 5 behinds of Hawthorn, but they got back on the train and finished off the game with maturity. The Cats have a very solid mix of players this year with just 5 under 50 games in the team after their topping up in the off-season. The Giants on the other hand still have 8 with 7 more between 50 and 99 games, similar to the Cats. Dangerfield was the clear standout, but performances all over the park were consistent from a Cats team that has grown in depth in the off-season with the usual suspects standing up when counted. The Cats have improved in the ruck, tackled well, had a huge 61 Inside 50s and converted at a solid 69.2%. Don’t expect them to be as accurate this week away from home, but expect them to be very hard to beat.
The Giants loss to the Demons is a very disappointing start to the year for a team loaded with future stars. The Giants are still probably a year off a finals birth, but they have the team on paper to test most top teams in the league on their day. A big worry is the fact the Giants only laid 50 tackles last week and kicked far too many behinds. They should improve but there is still another level to reach to beat this Cats team today.
The Cats on paper have the team that can break the top-four this year with several key additions to the team led by Patty Dangerfield. The Cats look the real deal in all areas of the field apart from the defensive structure which still requires some improvement, but when you are able to get 26 scoring shots on the board past the premiers in Round 1, you don’t need the best defensive structure in the league.

GEELONG TO WIN BY 38 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Geelong -15.5 Line @ $1.92
Away Team Total Points Over 98.5 @ $1.88

Hawthorn ($1.95) VS West Coast ($1.85)

@ MCG, Sunday 3/04/2016, 3:20pm AEST
Line: Hawks +1.5, Eagles -1.5
The Hawks come into this without Luke Hodge and off a very disappointing Round One loss against the Cats. Outside of the third quarter, the Hawks were beaten by 15 points, 15 points and 32 points. The Hawks will need to show a large improvement today to measure up to the might of the Eagles.
The Eagles scored a 62 point victory over the Lions in Round 1 in what can be described as a shoot-out. A top 4 contender shouldn’t be allowing the Lions team with no players with 150 or more games experience to score 102 points, apart from the Eagles who will continue to start large numbers all year. It was simply a walk-over in the end with the Eagles winning all four quarters with ease. The Eagles disposals per goal number is not surprising against the Lions team. They had to put on limited pressure which is shown by the 59 tackle count and 121 marks during the match. They dominated the Hitouts which is expected to occur again in this match and kicked very straight, as always.
This game is set to be a strong contest. The Hawks have a lot to prove and that will be hard to do without the guidance of Luke Hodge in the team. This is the true testing material for the Eagles to see if their game plan has evolved to include the MCG.

WEST COAST EAGLES TO WIN BY 15 POINTS

Bets to Consider
West Coast @ $1.85

Carlton ($5.50) VS Sydney ($1.15)

@ Etihad Stadium, Sunday 3/04/2016, 4:40pm AEST
Line: Blues +36.5, Swans -36.5
The Swans were probably the most impressive winners of Round 1 in my eyes. They put the game beyond all doubt by half-time but kept on with the task. Not much more needs to be said.
The Blues weren’t expected to produce much in Round 1 but were a very solid effort, losing by just 9 points in the end to a Richmond team that was effective to the last.
When all is said and done, the Swans will win this game and they will win it well, but I think the Bookmakers have the expected margin right on the mark.

SYDNEY TO WIN BY 33 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.35

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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