2016 AFL Round 3 Preview & Bets

We enter the third round of the AFL season and there are quite a few unexpected results as always occurs, but there would have been no one that expected the Dockers to start the season with a 0-2 start. There are already several teams on the do not bet list this early in the season and several games this week where you should be more than happy to just watch a great game of football. The Roos are a team I feel are continuing to be under-valued by the markets as well as the Crows which leads us to our best bets of the round.

Best Bet
Adelaide H2H @ $1.85

Next Best Bet
North Melbourne -23.5 Line @ $1.92

Port Adelaide ($1.09) VS Essendon ($7.50)

@ Adelaide Oval, Friday 8/04/2016, 7.50pm AEST
Line: Port Adelaide -47.5, Essendon +47.5
The Power were spanked in the first two quarters last week, but their kicking didn’t exactly help the result either. As expected, the Adelaide game plan took advantage of how the Power were to line up and it worked out perfectly for them. There are obvious positives for the Power coming into this game on the stats sheet that are hard to ignore. They had a huge 70 inside 50s to just 55, but converted at just 35.5% compared to Adelaide’s 64.7%. The Power toughed it out to the end which is what you want to see from a team of this experience. Expect them to bounce back.
Essendon simply outplayed the Demons tactically last week and the stats scoreboard suggests it was a very solid performance, despite conversion issues. 56 Inside 50s is a very solid count to take into the game today and the game plan saw a massive 139 marks around the ground while putting pressure on the opposition with 66 tackles. The Dons were again at the higher end of the Disposals per Goal. I thought the Bombers put in a solid effort last week and I’m not exactly convinced that the Power are a contender this year, but they are certainly a harder task than Melbourne were. I’m really worried for how they will go in the ruck again having been smashed by the Demons.
Don’t expect the Bombers to be an absolute push over today, but don’t expect them to be winning this either. The Power will have a few handy ins and they won’t make the same mistakes in front of goal as they did last week. Expect the Power to start well.

PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 40 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Port Adelaide Half Time Line -22.5 @ $1.90

St Kilda ($2.80) VS Collingwood ($1.42)

@ MCG, Saturday 9/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: St Kilda +16.5, Collingwood -16.5
The Saints were woeful last week when beaten by the form team of the competition in the Western Bulldogs. They were beaten in all four quarters and the stats, but they certainly did actually try. St Kilda had a massive 71.20 disposals per goal which is just disgusting. Entries into the 50 were just not effective, showing just how good the Bulldogs are defensively and the lack of forward options upfront for the Saints. I think the stats sheet suggest they will be competitive today in the ruck, around the ball pressure wise and even game plan wise, but can’t afford to just bomb it inside the 50 with hope every time today. On paper, experience wise, the Saints will have a relatively similar team match-up for Collingwood.
The Pies have been disgusting the past two weeks. They didn’t win the game last week, the Tigers lost it. The Pies were solid in front of goal converting at 59.1% and actually did have a large number of Inside 50s (52), but they were destroyed in the ruck and needed an extra 9 free kicks and the Tigers to kick at just 46.2% in front of goal to get over the line. We tipped them, we took the cash and we ran last week. I couldn’t be confident of a win today based on the past two weeks performances, but they certainly do deserve to be favourites over the Saints.
I can’t see this match being a blow-out but I also can’t be confident backing either of the teams to the point where it would be a best bet either.

COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 10 POINTS

Bets To Consider
Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.15

Richmond ($2.00) VS Adelaide ($1.85)

@ Etihad Stadium, Saturday 9/04/2016, 2.10pm AEST
Line: Richmond +2.5, Adelaide -2.5
The Tigers loss last week was an absolute disgrace. The Giants did a similar thing the week before against the Demons and came out and beat the Cats last week. All over the board the Tigers had the advantage over the Pies. It was a game of little skill and that is two weeks in a row now where the Tigers have failed to put it all together in a comprehensive manner. The bookies have amazingly put the Tigers up as equal favourites, taking another chance on them this week. Good luck.
Adelaide were put up as underdogs last week before the key outs for the Power and based on their Round 1 match against the Roos it was simply just wrong. We tipped them and it was really a case of never in doubt. The Crows took the foot off the Power’s throat in the final QTR which makes the stats look a little less favourable than you would have expected from such a strong win. The Crows had 34 shots on goal, converted well… they should get the same opportunities against the Tigers that they had against the Power and Roos in the previous rounds.
It’s always hard to take a team interstate as proved by the Cats loss last week while we were on them, but after two very solid performances from the Crows, and the Tigers failings over 8 QTRs of football, I’m very keen to be with the Crows here.

ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 32 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Adelaide H2H @ $1.85
Adelaide 40+ @ $5.80

Sydney ($1.40) VS Greater Western Sydney ($2.95)

@ SCG, Saturday 9/04/2016, 4.35pm AEST
Line: Sydney -18.5, Greater Western Sydney +18.5
The Swans come into this game off two very impressive performances. Unfortunately, those performances came against the out of form Blues and Pies. The Swans have not put a foot wrong in any of their games so far this year, although the Hitouts numbers last week were a bit of a worry coming up against a Shane Mumford team this week. The Swans game plan is hard to beat with this team on the field. They had 31 shots on goal last week and converted well. They had a massive 69 inside 50s and continue to move the ball with grace. It’s crazy to see the fact that Sydney have 10 players under 50 games in the team.
The Giants come into this after a very good performance against the Giants in Canberra. Tactically, they outperformed the Cats in every facet of the game and just got home in the end after what was only an average finish to the game. The ruck battle is where the game was won for mine and that is where they will look to get a key advantage in this game. This is the testing material.
I’m expecting a free flowing game. The issue is that the ground will have had a good soak over the past 7 days and if it’s anything like what Randwick is expected to be for the races, then it’s hard to see a high scoring affair. Expect a tight contest and the Swans to pull away late.

SYDNEY TO WIN BY 23 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $2.10

Gold Coast ($1.21) VS Carlton ($4.40)

@ Metricon Stadium, Saturday 9/04/2016, 7.25pm AEST
Line: Gold Coast -30.5, Carlton +30.5
The Suns have looked like one of the most improved teams of 2016, which is amazing when you consider they were missing two of the best up and coming midfielders and lost another last year. This is a team that is working for each other on the field, something that you probably couldn’t say last year. Defensively, they got the job done against the Dockers last week allowing 10 more inside 50s yet they had 1 more shot on target. They continue to kick well in front of goal and their pressure is top class. The massive issue they have is a lack of ruckwork. If the Suns can put 19 goals past Fremantle, then you have to believe they will can put 18 past the Blues.
The Blues once again started the game well, but were quickly figured out and bettered throughout the game. The positives come in the form of scoring shots, inside 50s, winning the hitouts clearly, pressure around the poor and an overall game plan that seems to be working.

GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 31 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Home Team (Suns) – Total Points Over 106.5 @ $1.88

West Coast ($1.40) VS Fremantle ($2.95)

@ Domain Stadium, Saturday 9/04/2016, 7.40pm AEST
Line: West Coast -18.5, Fremantle +18.5
The Eagles were dominated from pillar to post over at the MCG last week by a rampant Hawthorn Squad. Amazingly, the Eagles won the Hitouts by 24, yet couldn’t keep a handle of the board, losing the disposals by over 160 in the end. The Hawks played their usual game plan kicking it around and put the pressure on when it counted. Uncharacteristically, the Eagles were very poor in front of goal shooting just 38.9% conversion rate. The Eagles had just 34 inside 50s to the Hawks 68. An old fashion smashing.
The Dockers started a short price favourite against the Suns last week and were well beaten on the day. Fyfe was amazing as always but couldn’t lift his team over the line even with 3 goals. It was a change in tactics clearly on the day with allowing the Suns to kick 19 goals against them. They did score 100 points which is an improvement on the previous week, but this looks to be a team that is adjusting game plans as they go.
The Eagles won the first meeting last year while the Dockers won the second meeting. I’m expecting a free flowing game from both these teams and for the game to be high scoring. The last two matches between these two covered the current betting line easily. There is no way I could trust this Fremantle squad to get the job done after what we saw the past two weeks.

WEST COAST TO WIN BY 25 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Total Game Points Over 172.5 @ $1.88

North Melbourne ($1.27) VS Melbourne ($3.50)

@ Blundstone Arena, Sunday 10/04/2016, 1.10pm AEST
Line: North Melbourne -21.5, Melbourne +21.5
The Roos started the year with a solid win over the Crows who demolished the Power last week. The Roos travelled to Brisbane and produced a very strong result. Goldstein has been a little disappointing the first two weeks having found a few his match in the ruck. The Roos proved to be very strong defensively and converted well enough. Back down in Tasmania for this match should suit.
The Demons were very poor in Round 1 yet got the win. Last week they were beaten by an Essendon team that is expected to win less than 4 matches all year. The worst part about the loss is the fact they converted well in front of goal, had more than enough inside 50s, won the hitouts. The Demons were beaten off the park and that will be hard to bounce back from.
This is a very open and shut book for mine. The Roos playing at 80% would take care of a 100% Demons effort. Very keen to take the Demons on here.

NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 38 POINTS

Bets to Consider
North Melbourne -23.5 Line @ $1.92

Western Bulldogs ($2.30) VS Hawthorn ($1.61)

@ Etihad Stadium, Sunday 10/04/2016, 3.20pm AEST
Line: Western Bulldogs +8.5, Hawthorn -8.5
The Bulldogs have been the form team of the opening two rounds. They made mincemeat of the Dockers in Melbourne and pulled St Kilda apart last week at Etihad. They host Hawthorn on home soil which is the most important factor for them today. The Bulldogs continue to measure up in all aspects of the stats sheet and it will be interesting to see if they can match the Hawks game plan.
The Hawks bounced back with a devastating victory of the Eagles. All the stats suggest they were back to their very best with a massive 68 inside 50s for the match. They only kicked 14 goals from those 68 inside 50s which is a bit disappointing, but they are missing a few big guns.
There is no better time than now for the Bulldogs to get a win over the Hawks with the outs for the Hawks. That being said, it’s hard to see the Hawks putting in a poor performance and they were impressive right to the end last week. We are in for a thriller.

HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 8 POINTS 

Bets to Consider
Halftime/Fulltime Double: Western Bulldogs / Hawthorn @ $7.40

Geelong ($1.04) VS Brisbane ($10.00)

@ Simonds Stadium, Sunday 10/04/2016, 4.40pm AEST
Line: Geelong -56.5, Brisbane +56.5
The Cats were very disappointing last week after the performance they showed against the Hawks. Returning home, expect the Cats to bounce back against a Brisbane team who has been well beaten the first two rounds.
The Lions weren’t terrible last week but they weren’t great either. Expect the Lions to measure up around the ground and in the ruck, but it’s hard to see them bettering the Cats on this ground with the team they will be fielding.
The line put up for this game says it all really. I’m expecting a high scoring match.

GEELONG TO WIN BY 40 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Total Game Points Over 190.5 @ $1.88

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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