2016 AFL Round 7 Preview & Bets

AFL 2017

Round 6 put up some fairly close and unpredictable results, but our betting results were strong once again with our best bet winning and 1/2 on the other bets. There are some very hard to predict games this week that must be stayed away  from in a betting sense, but will be a great watch! Let’s get into the games.

Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney -20.5 Line @ $1.92

Other Bets
Total Game Points OVER 164.5 @ $1.88 (Power v Lions Match)
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.65

Richmond ($7.50) VS Hawthorn ($1.09)
@ MCG, Friday 06/05/2016, 7.50pm AEST
Line: Richmond +41.5, Hawthorn -41.5

Richmond were a disgrace last week. They had 53 inside 50s for just 19 shots on goal. They lost the tackle count by over 28, were out marked by 19 and didn’t even have free kicks to complain about. They even won the Hitouts 64 to 24.. but were destroyed on the park. It really was an indefensible effort and they are going to suffer again this week from another big out.

The Hawks were due a town game and that’s what they produced last week with just Mitchell getting over 20 disposals. The whole team failed to fire. The Hawks had only 6 less inside 50s, but 15 less scoring shots which says it all really. They actually won the Hitout count but put on a terrible 41 tackles for the whole match, very unlike this Hawthorn team. Most importantly, they allowed GWS 99 more disposals for the game.

Expect the Hawks to bounce back and bounce back hard from that disgraceful effort last week. They will be ready to rumble and more importantly, wanting to put in a 4 QTR effort to smash this Tigers squad.

HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 60 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Hawthorn -41.5 Line @ $1.92

Collingwood ($1.32) VS Carlton ($3.40)
@ MCG, Saturday 07/05/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Collingwood -19.5, Carlton +19.5

The predictable pies failed to turn up for more than two quarters last week away to the Eagles. Their 2nd and 3rd QTRs were decent enough to suggest they can go well this week, but they will have to put together a 4 QTR effort to more than cover the line this week. The Pies had just 33 inside 50s to 61 and 17 scoring shots to 34… at least they did win the tackle count but as expected were smashed in the hitouts.

The Blues were horrid against an even more horrible Essendon last week. It was one of the worst games of football you will ever watch with 63 inside 50s for just 22 scoring shots. The tackles and hitouts were even and the Blues had slightly more of the ball. The Blues provided the Tigers with their only win for the year and the Blues last two wins have been over the Dockers and Bombers, both struggling teams and by under 15 points, while they have lost to the Swans, Suns and Dogs by over 36 points each.

This really looks the Pies chance to bounce back after a horrible performance over in the west. It’s impossible to suggest the Blues can stand up to the best the Pies have to give here and I think the Pies are a great bet this week.

COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 30 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Tribet: Collingwood Over 15.5 Points @ $1.70

Geelong ($1.45) VS West Coast ($2.75)
@ Simonds Stadium, Saturday 07/05/2016, 2.10pm AEST
Line: Geelong -15.5, West Coast +15.5

The Cats come off a smashing of Gold Coast at home in a four quarter display of dominance winning each quarter by 14, 27, 42 and 37. They had 62 inside 50s with 43 scoring shots to 33 inside 50s and just the 13 scoring shots. The Cats won the tackle count by 13, lost the hitouts by 7, had 130 more disposals and 142 marks to the Suns 62. It really was a belting. The Cats will have to bring their best a second week in a row though, but they have been consistent this year at home with two wins of 69 points and 120 points.

The Eagles won by 62 points in the end last week, but they went missing for about two quarters. After winning the first quarter by 33, they lost the 2nd by 4 and third by 10, letting Collingwood get within 10 points of the lead before winning the final quarter by 43 points. This is a West Coast team that has failed to put points on the board away from home and they face one of their toughest tests of the year away to Geelong. They will need to step up from what they put up last week to beat this Cats squad.

Expect the Eagles to put on a better effort away from home than their game against the Swans a few weeks back, but the stats really are against them today. They will need to keep this Cats squad to under 90 points to be winning this, which is a hard task considering the Cats have scored 89 points or above in their last 7 games at home.

GEELONG TO WIN BY 18 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.25

Sydney ($1.01) VS Essendon ($18.00)
@ SCG, Saturday 07/05/2016, 4.35pm AEST
Line: Sydney -74.5, Essendon +74.5

The Swans effort last week against the Lions was good. I really think we have to believe the Lions turned up on the day. Both teams put on a huge number of tackles with 99 and 98 a piece which shows both put in the effort on the day. Sydney won the disposals by up 70 and the hitouts by 10 which was one of the differences in the end. Expect the Swans to have a lot more shots on goal with their inside 50 count this week.

The Dons performance last week was woeful at best and that is being kind. Just the 17 shots on goal, they keep trying to put in the effort but they don’t have the skill levels required to measure up.

The Swans are going to put a beating on this Essendon Squad. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 100+ point win. The key here for mine betting wise is the lack of points the Bombers will get past this Swans team. The Bombers have failed to get more than 57 points on the board in 3 of their past 4 games against the Cats, Power and even the Blues.

SYDNEY TO WIN BY 78 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Away Team (Essendon) Total Points UNDER 57.5 @ $1.88

Gold Coast ($1.92) VS Melbourne ($1.92)
@ Metricon Stadium, Saturday 07/05/2016, 5.10pm AEST
Line: None Available

The Suns won their first three games of the season beating some of the bottom of the ladder teams in the Bombers, Dockers and Blues.. then they fell away with a loss to the Lions then big loses to the Roos and Cats. The KPIs last week were simply not good enough to suggest they are playing with the heart required to put together a win. That being said, They are back at home where they have put in their best performances of the past two years.

The Demons were outmatched and outgunned last week by the Saints. They hit the required KPIs but just simply couldn’t get the delivery inside 50. They can bounce back there, but their away record does have a lot to be desired.

Expect the Suns to bounce back here and put in a much better performance than the last few weeks. This will be a close match.

GOLD COAST SUNS TO WIN BY 5 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Gold Coast to win @ $1.84

Western Bulldogs ($1.95) VS Adelaide ($1.85)
@ Etihad Stadium, Saturday 07/05/2016, 7.40pm AEST
Line: Western Bulldogs +1.5, Adelaide -1.5

The Doggies were not their normal self last week against the Roos, failing to score a goal in the final quarter of the match. The Doggies at 10 more Inside 50s than the Roos last week for 1 less shot on goal. It was a tough contest and it didn’t feel like the Doggies put in 100% pressure wise. Expect them to bounce back here and give 110%.

The Crows are 4-2 and looking like one of the form teams of the season. Their only two slip ups have been against top teams in the Roos and hawks with small margin loses. Their last game at Etihad was a strong 36 point win.

This is a strange match when you look at the Stats. The Bulldogs have kept every opponent to under 93 points this year. Adelaide on the other hand have scored 97 points or more every game this year. We have a classic defensive vs attacking match-up.

ADELAIDE BY 15 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.65

Fremantle ($3.40) VS Greater Western Sydney ($1.33)
@ Domain Stadium, Saturday 07/05/2016, 8.10pm AEST
Line: Fremantle +20.5, Greater Western Sydney -20.5

The Dockers had probably their best game of the year last week against a top team in the Crows. They had the same number of inside 50s and nearly the same number of scoring shots. They put on the required number of tackles, went well in the hitouts and got the disposals required. On the KPI’s I thought Fremantle had a great game and back home should perform better than expected.

The Giants destroyed the Hawks last week over all four quarters. The Stats don’t lie, it was a great effort, while the Hawks were just woeful.

The Giants have won by 86, 47 and 75 points the past three weeks and there is no slowing them down.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY TO WIN BY 42 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Greater Western Sydney -20.5 Line @ $1.92

St Kilda ($3.10) VS North Melbourne ($1.37)
@ Etihad Stadium, Sunday 08/05/2016, 3.20pm AEST
Line: St Kilda +22.5, North Melbourne -22.5

The Saints brought it last week and destroyed the Demons from start to finish where it counted. The Saints kicked less accurately infront of goal, but from 55 inside 50s a piece the Saints had 35 scoring shots to the Demons 21. Most importantly, the Saints had 74 tackles to 59, showing the pressure around the ground. Expect a strong game today from the Saints.

The Kangaroos continue to play well and just won’t roll over. The Roos have won all 6 games this season by under 39 points, showing just how close the games have been. They took care of the Bulldogs in a low scoring affair last week. They will certainly be tested by the fast flowing game of the Saints this well.

The Roos come into this as clear favourites as you would expect on recent form. The Saints have been improving as the season has gone on, but you do have to be worried about the 47 point loss to the Giants and 57 point loss to the Bulldogs. Their best is clearly good enough, but a slow start can see them blown away with their 3 loses by more than 33 points. The Roos are the real deal and the Saints are still a few years off their peak.

NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 33

Bets to Consider
North Melbourne -21.5 @ $1.92

Port Adelaide ($1.42) VS Brisbane ($2.85)
@ Adelaide Oval, Sunday 08/05/2016, 4.40pm AEST
Line: Port Adelaide -16.5, Brisbane +16.5

The Power bounced back last week with a win over the down and out Tigers team. They hit all the right KPIs you expect on the scoreboard, but you do have to be considered about them losing the Hitouts by 40! 99 tackles shows they were playing for each other. 3 wins from 6 games this year and none has been decided by under 33 points, telling you they either turn up or they don’t.

Brisbane have undergone a form revival over the past few weeks with a tough loss to Sydney last week. The Lions had more inside 50s and shots on goal, but they just didn’t kick straight enough. 98 tackles shows the team turned up and the KPIs were all fine. The team issue we have to consider is just how poor the Lions have been away from home, having clearly covered the line at home the past two games, but the three games away from home this season saw loses of 64, 69 and 53 to top 4-8 teams.

The Lions have been very well backed $4 into $2.85 and the line has moved in their favour. They were overs at the odds but the market looks pretty much right. You can’t trust the Suns away from home, and we can’t read much into the Powers form either. The stats point to a high scoring game and the 164.5 points total looks well wrong to me. Every lions game this season has gone well over 180 while the Powers games have covered this line 3/4 times this season, the 4th falling 1.5 shot of the total today with the Bombers failing to score more than 51 points that day. Expect this to be a free flowing game.

PORT ADELAIDE BY 10 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Total Game Points OVER 164.5 @ $1.88

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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