2016 Round 10 AFL Preview & Bets

AFL 2017

Welcome to the Round 10 AFL preview. Losses to premiership favourites Geelong and Hawthorn have proven just how even the 2016 season is, as five clubs find themselves at $7.00 or less to win the flag. That five doesn’t even include the undefeated North Melbourne, who are priced at $9.00. We’ll know far more about the Kangaroos in the next month, with fixtures against Sydney, Richmond, Geelong and Hawthorn. Sydney have now shortened to $5.00 to be equal premiership favourite with Geelong, while Hawthorn have drifted to $6.00. GWS are the team on everyone’s lips though, as the developing franchise team continues to impress the AFL community. The Giants are now considered a genuine premiership threat by some, but will need away results to back up that confidence. A win at Adelaide Oval against the Crows will certainly help that perception.

Best Bet:
St Kilda @ the -22.5 line

Other Bets:
Carlton vs Geelong Over 180.5 Total Points
GWS @ the -3.5 line


AT THE SCG, FRIDAY 27/05, 19:50
Line: Swans -19.5, North +19.5
After going down to Richmond in Round 8, things changed fast for the Swans who now find themselves as the equal premiership favourite after its victory against Hawthorn on Friday night. John Longmire would have be extremely pleased with how his game plan was executed, as the Swans managed to smash Hawthorn for contested possession, while at the same time limit the reigning premier’s damage on the outside. Sydney finished the game +29 for contested possessions and kept Hawthorn below 70% for disposal efficiency. Despite only registering 40 inside 50s, Sydney are currently playing a style of football that is far more effective than what was produced during its failed 2015 finals campaign. Richards misses through concussion.
For the first time in the clubs history, North Melbourne finds itself at 9-0 and are now two games clear on top of the table. Yet its record breaking start to the season still has many questioning Brad Scott’s men. The Kangaroos have only played two current top eight sides, but that ledger will be evened as it comes up against five top eight sides in its next six matches. North Melbourne refuse to discuss its premiership credentials despite the brilliant start, focusing more on the 12 wins required to secure a finals position. Daniel Wells is an important inclusion.
North Melbourne won at the SCG last start in 2014 and were convincing during the Semi Final at ANZ Stadium last year, but the Swans have all their stars firing and haven’t looked threatened at home all year. I doubt North can restrain all those Sydney weapons.

Bet to Consider:
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.15

BRISBANE ($7.00) VS HAWTHORN ($1.11)

Line: Lions +42.5, Hawks -42.5
The Brisbane Lion’s horrendous 2016 season continued on Sunday as it suffered a 63 point loss to the rejuvenated Demons. It was the sixth time that the Lions have conceded 120 points or more, bringing its season average to 125.44 points per game to be ranked eighteenth in the competition. Justin Leppitsch appears helpless to stem the constant scoring as his young side continues to battle implementing basic defensive structures. The Lions only had 7 less I50s against Melbourne, but are giving away so many simple goals that it doesn’t matter if they can break even in that area.
The Hawthorn concerns continue to grow as Sydney completely starved the brown and gold of its premiership defining strengths. The contested possession woes reared their ugly head again for the Hawks with another significant defeat in the category, but it was the struggles on the outside and in space that would really be worrying Alastair Clarkson. Hawthorn has prided itself on decision making and use by foot, but fell to 69% against Sydney. When the Hawks are peaking, they generally operate at the high 70s with ball in hand. The Hawks have gone from being a 1.5% more efficient side than any other club in 2015, to being ranked 7th in the competition this year. It isn’t the strength it once was.
The Hawks will bounce back with ease here, despite having not played at the Gabba since 2008.

Bet to Consider:
Hawthorn @ the -42.5 line


Line: Dees +1.5, Port -1.5
I wrote during the preseason preview that Melbourne desperately needed to focus on a scoreboard friendly style in 2016 to be competitive and admittedly doubted that they could change their ways. But the Dees have been an attacking force this season to be ranked 3rd in the competition for points scored at an average of 108.66 per game. There has seen a significant rise in goals going the other direction, but most importantly Melbourne are playing more consistent football and winning games. The Dees will be further strengthened this week with the return of Dom Tyson and Neville Jetta.
It is so difficult to assess exactly where Port Adelaide are. On face value an 8 point loss to West Coast isn’t a horrendous effort, but four late goals flattered the scoreboard. The fact that West Coast haven’t travelled well also doesn’t look great, especially considering they controlled the game practically all day. The Power are only one game outside the 8, but it feels as if they aren’t playing the football required to be considered a finals contender. They can certainly come out and play periods of quality football, but until it can sustain that standard it is very difficult to trust this side on the punt. Tom Jonas misses after that terrible hit on Andrew Gaff.
If this game was at the MCG, I’d be extremely confident with Melbourne’s chances. But the Dees are yet to win any of its sold home games to Alice Springs, which gives Port a shot. It is a difficult match to split.

Bet to Consider:
Most Possessions Gr1 Dom Tyson @ $10.00

ST KILDA ($1.29) VS FREMANTLE ($3.75)

Line: Saints -23.5, Freo +23.5
St Kilda needed to come out and make a statement after its poor effort in the west the week before and did so with a very comfortable victory against Essendon. Its output at the stoppages was an enormous improvement in doubling the Bombers clearance count and ending +15 for contested possessions. After having two more handballs than kicks at Domain Stadium, a ratio of 219 kicks to 167 handballs indicated that the Saints had greater control and less pressure with ball in hand. Jack Billings is a vital out for the Saints, but he is currently the only player on the injury list.
It is difficult to fathom that a side who was sitting 9-0 this time last year can produce a complete turnaround to be 0-9 exactly 12 months later. Fremantle were the premiership favourite and didn’t look like being beaten anytime soon. This season is the complete opposite as it is difficult to know when or if the Dockers will win a game. Barlow and Hill return, but the injury epidemic hasn’t got any better with David Mundy succumbing to a calf complaint while talented young tall Alex Pearce has broken his leg. Round 23 can’t come fast enough for Ross Lyon.
St Kilda are used to coming up against weakened Fremantle line ups, but perhaps not this early in the season. It is difficult to imagine Fremantle beating anyone in its current state. The Saints must be considered at the line.

Bet to Consider:
St Kilda @ the -22.5 line

ESSENDON ($7.50) VS RICHMOND ($1.08)

AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 28/05, 19:25
Line: Bombers +45.5, Tigers -45.5
Essendon notched up loss number eight against St Kilda for 2016 in a match where it would have expected to be more competitive. John Worsfold genuinely believed his side could beat the Saints, but an absolute mauling at the stoppages meant the Bombers were defending more often than it would have liked. 67 entrances and 23 marks inside 50 were conceded to the Saints, so the final margin could have been much worse. It is difficult to fault the young side’s effort, but some messy looking numbers are beginning to surface as the season grows older.
While it is only two consecutive wins, the Tigers are looking like a side that is turning the corner. The Tigers hardly looked threatened in terrible conditions at Domain Stadium against the winless Dockers, cruising to an impressive 38 point victory. Key players like Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Shane Edwards are beginning to hit peak form and while he was sightly quiet against Fremantle, the inclusion of Brett Deledio makes this Richmond side dangerous. A further confidence boasting win against the Bombers will set up a nice clash against ladder leaders North Melbourne.
It was less than two weeks ago that this Dreamtime game appeared difficult to predict, but Richmond have sparked up and shouldn’t have any issues against Essendon.

Bet to Consider:
Brett Deledio to win the Yiooken Award @ $8.00

ADELAIDE ($2.10) VS GWS ($1.77)

Line: Crows +3.5, Giants -3.5
Adelaide travelled to the Gold Coast and produced the onslaught that we all expected, downing the hapless Suns by 75 points. While the result was evitable, it was a good opportunity for some out of form Crows to build confidence and get a juicy feed from a rotting Gold Coast carcass. Captain Taylor Walker was the major beneficiary, booting 5 goals and collecting 19 disposals. The big forward has been nowhere near his best this season, but has been showing signs that good form isn’t far away. The Crows will still be without important defender Rory Laird.
If everyone isn’t on the Giants bandwagon already, the train will be full if it can knock off the Crows at Adelaide Oval. GWS defeated another highly rated side in the Western Bulldogs on Sunday, which has seen the club shorten to $6.50 for the premiership. Unfortunately the Western Sydney folk are yet to embrace the early 2016 success of the Giants with less than 10,000 people turning up for the apparent Bulldogs blockbuster, but they’ll catch on fast enough if their side are still performing at the business end of the season. Jeremy Cameron continued his purple patch with another 5 goals to bring his season tally to 21 from just 5 games. Had he played all games, we’d be talking the young star up just as much as Buddy.
The Giants are yet to defeat a top eight contender interstate and get their first real chance on Saturday night against the Crows. If the Giants can continue its stoppage dominance, Adelaide won’t have enough answers.

Bet to Consider:
GWS @ the -3.5 line

CARLTON ($7.50) VS GEELONG ($1.10)

Line: Blues +43.5, Cats -43.5
Carlton came back down to reality with a thud as the top of the table Kangaroos easily swept Brendon Bolton’s men away. The absence of Matthew Kreuzer was enormous as Carlton lost the hit out count 20-53 and Todd Goldstein did as he pleased in a best on ground performance. While the Blues managed to have just three less inside 50s than North, the midfield struggled for targets without Levi Casboult smashing packs. Miraculously, both Kreuzer and Casboult have been named after originally being listed out for several weks. Gibbs, Cripps and Docherty continued on their outstanding form, but there weren’t too many more contributors.
Having been crowned as the new premiership favourite during the week, Geelong crashed to earth fast by conceding 7 goals to 0 in the first quarter against a rejuvenated Collingwood outfit. The Cats came good and evened most KPIs up after quarter time, but the early scoreboard damage and poor kicking cost them the game. Geelong got within 8 points early in the last quarter and appeared to be storming toward victory, but a coast to coast goal killed the momentum and Collingwood managed to regroup. It certainly isn’t panic stations for the Cats, but its goal kicking is becoming a concern. Geelong are ranked 13th in the competition for goal accuracy, but it is the simple opportunities that are hurting.
Expect the Cats to bounce back hard and beat the Blues convincingly. These two sides generally have high scoring matches at Etihad with three of the last four encounters scoring over 200 points. The 180.5 over/under looks very gettable.

Bet to Consider:
Carlton vs Geelong Over 180.5 Total Points


AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 29/05, 15:20
Line: Pies +13.5, Dogs -13.5
Like Richmond, Collingwood seem to have turned its form around and are back in contention for a finals position. The Magpies absolutely stunned premiership favourite Geelong, kicking all seven goals in the first quarter to lead by 44 points at the first break. Nathan Buckley’s men were dominant on the spread and its accurate quick hands in tight created space that Geelong believed it had covered. The Cats lifted after quarter time and despite looking to tire at times, Collingwood continued to fight hard and kick momentum sapping goals when required. The Pies also match up well against Geelong, so it is difficult to know whether they have turned full circle. The signs certainly are encouraging though.
The Western Bulldogs have played some good football during the 2016 season, but it went down to yet another quality opponent on the weekend. The Dogs have now lost to GWS, North Melbourne and Hawthorn, three teams you suspect will be involved during September. Luke Beveridge will be disappointed to have not brought home points against any of those teams and will be craving more opportunities against the better clubs. While Collingwood aren’t in the top eight, they are a side that has turned its form around recently and present as a good test at the MCG. Boyd, Redpath, Suckling and Adams are all good inclusions.
If Collingwood has truly turned the corner, this looks like being a cracking encounter. I still need to be convinced by the Pies and I’m happy to sit out of a bet.

No Bet to Consider

WEST COAST ($1.01) VS GOLD COAST ($19.00)

Line: Eagles -70.5, Suns +70.5
Adam Simpson and his side would be ecstatic to have finally got points on the road. The scoreboard indicated a tight tussle, but West Coast had control for a large period of the match. The Eagles led by 32 points half way through the final quarter and while Port Adelaide kicked the last four goals, the result never looked truly threatened. Josh Kennedy got to Adelaide a day late, but it certainly didn’t hurt his form as the big forward snagged seven critical goals. West Coast had nearly 50 less disposals, but it didn’t matter due to their dominance around the stoppages. People have been too quick to write off the 2015 grand finalist. Yeo and Gaff are both out with a quad injury and concussion respectively.
Another week, another Gold Coast Suns slaughter. It is getting to the point where it is becoming difficult to watch. It is also becoming mind numbingly tiresome discussing their constant injury issues, but the depth is non-existent. It is interesting watching the development of Gold Coast and GWS after they decided to take different paths. The Giants invested heavily in youth and possess a never ending list of first round draft picks. The Suns trusted in older depth players with the exception of Ablett, which sees the list drop off dramatically after the best 22. When half the best 22 are constantly on the injury list, deep trouble emerges. Positively, Ablett, Hall and May are all named to return.
The Eagles are a massive chance for yet another triple figure victory at home. It is going to get messy.

Bet to Consider:
Home Team – Total Points O/U +135.5 @ $1.88



Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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