2016 Round 13 AFL Preview & Bets

Welcome to the Round 13 AFL preview. It is that time of the season where the sore players are breathing a sigh of relief with the start of the bye rounds. It is the perfect period for clubs to get some downtime and refresh the minds, but it doesn’t necessarily suit every club. A bad loss coming into the bye can mean a far less relaxing and enjoyable break, just as Collingwood would be feeling now. It is a notoriously tough three weeks for the punter too, as clubs counter all sorts of factors like differing breaks, the resting of senior players and on some occasions, greater training loads. Clubs have their own methods of dealing with the bye, which could be justified by current ladder position, travelling schedules or the physical state of the list. It would be a nice time to be a fly on the wall within clubs to make betting easier.

Port Adelaide -7.5 Line @ $1.92


Line: North +26.5, Hawks -26.5
It wasn’t a great night for North Melbourne against Geelong, going down by 31 points and being left with a lengthy injury toll. Swallow, Cunnington, Dal Santo, Atley and Nahas were all casualties during the match, which will lead to a recovery based week leading into Friday night for the sore boys on a six day break. The injuries toke a toll in the midfield in particular, as Dangerfield and Selwood produced massive numbers. North Melbourne ended the match -37 and -16 for contested possession and clearances respectively, which set the tone for limited forays forward. Swallow, Cunnington, Waite and Nahas have all failed to get up for this game, but Dal Santo and Atley have been named. Positively, the Kangaroos are still a game clear on top, but the pack will catch up on points if it goes down to Hawthorn.
Friday night was never going to be a pretty game of footy as Hawthorn ran away to a 108 point victory against Essendon. It at times resembled the atmosphere of an intraclub match as the Hawks did what it needed when it needed. Hawthorn finished with 30 more inside 50s and could have easily made the margin bigger with greater intensity. Sam Mitchell and Jon Ceglar will return to the side, while Luke Hodge isn’t too far off.
The six day break and bruising encounter against Geelong doesn’t bode well for North Melbourne. The Kangaroos are usually very competitive against Hawthorn at Etihad, but the current injury situation makes this very difficult.

Bet to Consider:
Hawthorn Quarter Time Line -5.5 @ $1.90

BRISBANE ($7.50) VS WEST COAST ($1.09)

Line: Lions +44.5, Eagles -44.5
The pressure on Justin Leppitsch is growing with every week that passes, as his side seemingly becomes more uncompetitive as the season goes on. The Brisbane board have given Leppitsch an assurance for 2017, but if these results continue, it is difficult to see that word get honoured. The Lions would have gone into the match against Fremantle expecting to win, but were destroyed at the stoppages with a -14 clearance differential. There are some experienced players who have been given enough chances and it is time to get games into the likes of Mathieson and Hipwood.
Are the West Coast Eagles in danger of losing its position in the eight after going down to Adelaide at Domain Stadium? The Eagles have now lost track with the main group of contending teams and finds itself one win and percentage ahead of Port Adelaide in ninth. West Coast completely capitulated in the final quarter after leading by two goals at three quarter time against the Crows. Adam Simpson’s men could only manage three I50s in the last quarter and amazingly couldn’t trouble the scorers. The poor away form finally reared its ugly head at home, which isn’t a great sign considering it was the Eagles first real test at Domain. News got worse for West Coast with Nic Naitanui requiring surgery on both ankles that could see him out for the season.
Coming up against Brisbane comes at a good time for West Coast. It should run away to a comfortable victory here.

Bet to Consider:
Away Team (West Coast) Over 119.5 Points @ $1.88


Line: Dockers +6.5, Port -6.5
It was only two weeks ago that Fremantle didn’t look close to winning a game, but all of a sudden it has 8 points on the board and possesses a larger percentage than Carlton despite winning four less games. Admittedly it hasn’t come up against great opposition in Brisbane and Essendon, but the Purple Haze is beginning to show signs of dominating the midfield again. Fremantle are +23 for clearances over the last two weeks as young players like Connor Blakely and Lachie Weller take greater responsibility. It hasn’t been a great season for Ross Lyon but he is determined to get something out of it with the development of his future midfield. Matthew Pavlich returns to the side.
Port Adelaide fell to the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, but it was difficult to be too critical of the loss in one of the games of the season. It was a high standard, fast paced and full of momentum swings. The Power are beginning to string together some performances of note against good opposition, but it is now time to turn respectable losses into wins. It sits one win and percentage outside the eight and has minimal room for a poor performance. Early intensity is vital for the Power.
Port Adelaide’s recent record at Domain Stadium is good, despite winning only one of the last three encounters. The other two matches were single figure margins, but against much stronger Fremantle sides. Port will be a big jump in quality from Brisbane and Essendon for the Dockers. Port’s -7.5 point line looks value.

Bet to Consider:
Port Adelaide -7.5 Line @ $1.92


Line: Dogs +7.5, Cats -7.5
The Western Bulldogs yet again proved that it must be considered a premiership contender after registering its first ever Adelaide Oval win against Port Adelaide. But the high intensity win came at a cost with the inform Luke Dahlhaus going down to a knee injury. While the injury is better than first expected, he will miss an important month of games for the Dogs. The Dogs took it up to Port Adelaide at the stoppages, winning the clearances 46-34 which ultimately won the game. Luke Beveridge’s midfield will have to be at its best again this Saturday night as it comes up against the most inform duo in the game currently.
Excluding some early poor kicking at goal, Geelong couldn’t have been much more impressive against North Melbourne. Patrick Dangerfield produced one of the greatest individual games of modern times, as his 48 disposals equalled Geelong’s greatest individual tally recorded. Of those 48 disposals, 40 were effective and 23 contested, while 10 of his 13 clearances were from a centre bounce. He also kicked 2 goals, took 3 contested marks and entered the forward 50 11 times. Forgotten in the Dangerfield limelight were the 38 disposals of Joel Selwood, who is in near career best form himself. You don’t have to be a Geelong supporter to be excited by what these two players are producing. Tom Hawkins is obviously a massive inclusion, despite the unpredictable nature of the forward line without him.
This is a top four defining game and both clubs will be primed. The Dogs depth has held up so far, but surely the absence of Murphy, Dahlhaus, Wood, Johannisen and Stevens will be exposed against a contender in Geelong? The Cats have won the last 8 encounters.

Bet to Consider:
Most Possessions Gr2 Josh Caddy @ $8.00

SYDNEY ($1.21) VS MELBOURNE ($4.25)

AT THE SCG, SUNDAY 19/06, 13.10
Line: Swans -25.5, Dees +25.5
Premiership favourite the Sydney Swans were given a nice little reality check on Sunday evening that it isn’t the only premiership contender in Sydney. The Swans were clearly beaten at the contest, losing the contested possession count 139-159 and clearance count 35-41. Unfortunately the loss wasn’t the worst thing to come out of the match for Sydney as inform ruckman/forward Kurt Tippett went down with a hamstring tendon injury that will see him on the sidelines for around 6 weeks. His dominance in the ruck has been one of the major contributors to Sydney’s brilliant early season form, but they’ll now have to rely on Callum Sinclair taking a greater chunk of the stoppage work.
Melbourne won its first Queens’s Birthday encounter since 2007, comprehensively defeating an out of form Collingwood by 46 points. The contested numbers were basically even, but it was on the outside that the Demons truly dominated. Melbourne finished +122 for uncontested possessions and had an enormous 120 more effective disposals. Max Gawn again showed that he is the premier ruckman of 2016, gathering 27 disposals on top of his 3 goals and 31 hit outs. The Demons now sit one game outside the eight and are starting to get their long suffering supporters a tad excited.
Sydney looked slow and sore against GWS after coming from a heavy Metricon Stadium. Melbourne haven’t played much footy at the SCG over the last decade, which should give Sydney an advantage. I expect Melbourne to be competitive in wet and slippery conditions.

Bet to Consider:
Melbourne +25.5 Line @ $1.92

ESSENDON ($16.00) VS GWS ($1.02)

Line: Bombers +63.5, Giants -63.5
I think if Essendon could, it would pull up stumps on its season now and start preparing for 2017. The 108 point drubbing on a Friday night wasn’t thrilling for anyone but Hawthorn supporters desperate for a percentage boost, as neutral supporters turned the channel over and only 27,000 attended. Once the AFL knew that Bombers players were to be suspended, it should have moved all Essendon games from Friday night for the good of its brand. The short preseason of the top up players is beginning to show, while the young kids are beginning to tire. There isn’t much expected of Essendon for the rest of the season.
If GWS weren’t considered a premiership contender before Sunday evening, it sure will be now as the club produced arguably its greatest ever win against premiership favourites and big brother the Sydney Swans. The Giants 100th game was nearly perfect with its first sell-out crowd at Spotless Stadium and second win against Sydney from 10 attempts. It has seen GWS shorten to $6.00 and be on the third line of premiership betting. Everyone currently loves watching the Giants play, but like the Lions of the early 2000s, people will eventually get sick of witnessing this club win. Steve Johnson and Shane Mumford will both miss with foot injuries.
It is impossible to back against the Giants here. They’ll enjoy the fast nature of Etihad Stadium.

Bet to Consider:
First Goalscorer Sam Reid @ $17.00



Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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