A big week in footy. We went 6/9 in the first round with suggestions in our write up that Brisbane and Fremantle were very much tippable and that Port Adelaide had a good shot. You have to go safe in round 1 and take the obvious picks with preseason form not working out in a fair few of games. Expect a bolder write up this week with some gut tipping.
No statistics will be used for the first three rounds due to NAB cup data being inaccurate and needing a few rounds worth of data to make stats matter.
As always, we love to hear your feedback and thoughts so @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Brisbane Lions ($3.50) vs Carlton Blues ($1.30) – Thursday 7:40pm AEST – 5/04/2012
Recent clashes: Both teams are split at 5 wins each over the last 5 years with Brisbane ahead 3/2 at the Gabba. Carlton beat Brisbane by 61 points in the last clash last year. Interestingly, Brisbane smashed Carlton up at the Gabba in the preseason by 10 goals.
Game preview: We are not saying Carlton played their top team in the preseason match, which they lost by 64 points, with Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Eddie Betts and Heath Scotland all missing but they did have a strong team. This team was kept goalless in the second half of the match and seemed to suffer under the humidity. Similar conditions of humidity are expected at the Gabba for this match. Carlton ended up winning by a large amount last week but they were very sloppy and their defense was exposed many times during the game by Richmond who were within 8 points taking a shot at goal with 10 minutes left. Brisbane were very impressive in their defeat of Melbourne. The odds for this match are way wrong. If you are after a good chance roughie for your tipping this round, look no further.
Brisbane by 9 points
Essendom Bombers ($1.24) vs Port Adelaide Power ($4.00) – Saturday 1:45pm AEST – 7/04/2012
Recent clashes: Essendon has won 1 of the last 5 clashes against Port with a narrow 7 point win in round 23 of last year.
Game preview: Essendon was impressive on the weekend with a big win (just) over the Kangaroos. They did everything possible to throw away the game but still held on. They suffered two early injuries during the game but still played it out. Port Adelaide did similar against St Kilda at home. Essendon don’t have a great record against Port Adelaide and once again, this will be a close game. Port Adelaide could surprise and win this but Essendon come in with too much class and will be more hungry to get control of the ball than St Kilda were last week.
Essendon by 23 points
Sydney Swans ($1.70) vs Fremantle Dockers ($2.15) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 7/04/2012
Recent clashes: Both have won 3 of the last 6 clashes with Fremantle winning by 11 points in Round 17 last year.
Game preview: Sydney will be coming off a 14 day break from the game. If you remember back to last year, this was the kiss of death with about 30% (top of head) of teams coming off a bye winning the next game. Fremantle were great last week against the Cats who just kept coming at them while Sydney were fairly half-cocked against GWS and kicked too many behinds (had similar last year). These teams match up well against each other and we do expect a closeish game but Fremantle will have the match fitness and get over the Swans in the end.
Fremantle by 15 points
West Coast Eagles ($1.06) vs Melbourne Demons ($8.75) – Saturday 2:40pm AWST (4:40pm AEST) – 7/04/2012
Recent clashes: West Coast have won 5 of the last 7 and not lost in Perth in that time. They beat Melbourne by 48 in round 21 last year.
Game preview: A question of by how much. West Coast have far too much quality for Melbourne to have a chance in this game. West Coast were great last week (and easy money) while Melbourne were a disgrace.
West Coast by 53 points
Collingwood Magpies ($1.13) vs Richmond Tigers ($5.75) – Saturday 7:40pm AEDT – 7/04/2012
Recent clashes: Collingwood have won 5 of the last 6 with a 161 to 90 flogging of Richmond in round 4 last year
Game preview: As suggested in our write up last week, Collingwood gave a very brave effort against Hawthorn last week. Their misses infront of goal were costly but don’t expect those type of mistakes to matter this week against Richmond. Collingwood are a high quality team and Richmond are still struggling to find a consistent team. The pies will tear the tigers apart.
Collingwood by 40 points
Adelaide Crows ($1.20) vs Western Bulldogs ($4.50) – Saturday 7:10pm ACST (7:40pm AEST) – 7/04/2012
Recent clashes: Bulldogs have won 5 of the last 8 clashes including a round 13 win over Adelaide by 30 points
Game preview: The hardest game of the round. Western Bulldogs were beaten fairly convincingly last week by West Coast Eagles, a top 5 team. Adelaide on the other hand beat Gold Coast convincingly, who will finish bottom four this year. Western Bulldogs in the past have matched up very well against the Crows and will continue this trend on the weekend. We don’t expect this game to be anywhere near of a blow out as you saw on the weekend in either of the games. If the Bulldogs start well, they could steal the win here. With 90% of tippers going for the Crows, we wouldn’t recommend going for the roughie of the dogs here.
Adelaide by 5 points
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.01) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants ($16.00) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST – 8/04/2012
Recent clashes: No previous data
Game preview: Kangaroos will win but expect GWS to be closer than the odds suggest. The grounds in Tasmania generally dish up small score lines. Kangaroos will come into this wanting to prove something but we feel GWS may keep the loss down to something respectful.
Kangaroos by 42 points
St Kilda Saints ($1.05) vs Gold Coast Suns ($9.50) – Sunday 4:40pm AEST – 8/04/2012
Recent clashes: St Kilda beat Gold Coast by 20 points in their only clash in round 19 of last year
Game preview: St Kilda last year were not very impressive in their win over the Gold Coast. They were not impressive at all against Port Adelaide either. On the other hand, Gold Coast looked horrible against Adelaide as well. A win by Gold Coast would not be a massive surprise but due to their form last week, we just can’t see it happening. St Kilda will be a little more hungry and compete a lot harder.
St Kilda by 20 points
Geelong Cats ($2.52) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.52) – Monday 3:10pm AEST – 9/04/2012
Recent clashes: Geelong have won 7 of the last 9 clashes with the last home and away win by 5 points in Round 12.
Game preview: Geelong know how to play the Hawks and that is shown in their beating of the Hawks in the finals last year. It was just all too easy. Geelong come into this with a depleted team though so the script has been flipped. The cats are missing wojenski, menzel, varcoe, hunt and scarlett to name a few. The depth of their squad is quite strong but you can’t ignore the quality who are out. The one area of the ground the Cats will control is the ruck and this could be the difference if they exploit the ruck contests to their advantage. Don’t let the prices fool you, the cat’s won’t lay down and die. This will be a close game. You could be forgiven for tipping either team here.
Hawks by 3 points
Collingwood -19.5 at $1.40
West Coast -31.5 at $1.37
Geelong +40.5 at $1.26
Fremantle 1-39 at $2.65
Brisbane +20.5 at $1.91
Gold Coast +60.5 at $1.61
Western Bulldogs +40.5 at $1.55
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.