Another good week of AFL is upon us! We got Brisbane wrong and went away with egg on our face over the Easter break. Freo disappointed letting us down with stats that should have won and the tip of Hawthorn also went down. We also have added into each game which team we like at the line and given you the line.
As always, we love to hear your feedback and thoughts so @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Carlton Blues ($1.80) vs Collingwood Magpies ($2.05) – Friday 7:50pm AEST – 13/04/2012
Recent clashes: Pies have won 7 of the last 10 clashes including a 19 point win last season in Round 17
AFL Tipping: 44% Carlton 56% Collingwood
Game preview: This will be a great game. Blues drop Thornton and Russel and bring in Jamison and Duigan while Tarrant is out injured and paien and seedsman are dropped with Wood, Wellingham and Maxwell back in for the Pies. Carlton were very impressive last week destroying the Lions in the final 3 QTRs of the game being down at QTR time and ending up winning by 91. The Pies on the other hand struggled to put away the Tigers. To be fair, Carlton didn’t put them away until the final 10 minutes of their first round game. It will be a close game and we expect the Blues to get over the line.
Carlton by 10 points
Line: Carlton -3.5
Richmond Tigers ($1.25) vs Melbourne Demons ($4.00) – Saturday 1:45pm AEST – 14/04/2012
Recent clashes: Richmond have won 5 of the last 9 including a 7 point win in Round 22 last season.
AFL Tipping: 93% Richmond 7% Melbourne
Game preview: Richmond step down in class here after two games again top 4 teams in Carlton and Collingwood. They step down to a team that has been THUMPED by Brisbane and West Coast in the past two weeks in Melbourne. Jake King is out injured with Maric into the team while Demons have dropped Green, Petterd, Macdonald and Bennell with Davey, Morton, Martin and Tapscott back in. It would take a brave person to tip Melbourne here and we think this is the game Richmond have been waiting for.
Richmond by 35 points
Line: Richmond -26.5
Port Adelaide Power ($2.67) vs Sydney Swans ($1.47) – Saturday 1:40pm ACST – 14/04/2012
Recent clashes: Sydney have won the last 6 clashes with a 62 point win in the last meeting round 8 2011.
AFL Tipping: 20% Port Adelaide 80% Sydney
Game preview: Both teams played good games for 3 QTR’s last week and just struggled to play out the 4th QTR. Port Adelaide lose a key player in David Rodan with Robbie Gray coming back in while Seaby is dropped for Sydney with Roberts Thompson and Smith out due to injury/virus with White, Mumford and Everitt all back into the team and very handy inclusions. Sydney are a potential top 8 team while Port Adelaide will be battling for top 12. They have improved significantly this year but Sydney should be too strong for the Power.
Sydney by 23
Line: Sydney -14.5
Fremantle Dockers ($1.08) vs Brisbane Lions ($8.00) – Saturday 2:40pm AWST – 14/04/2012
Recent clashes: Both teams are split with 3 wins from last 6. Fremantle beat Brisbane last year in round 14 by 23
AFL Tipping: 95% Fremantle 5% Brisbane
Game preview: Some good changes to both teams with Jack Anthony OUT for Fremantle (massive bonus) with David Mundy back in while Simon Black is out injured with Stiller, McKeever, Bewick and Hudson dropped while Johnno Brown, Josh Drummond, Raines, Harwood and Longer are back into the squad. After the pathetic performance of Brisbane last week, you can’t look away from Fremantle at home. Expect a better effort this week with the captain back, he won’t stand for last weeks disgraceful display. Stick with the tippers here.
Fremantle by 25
Line: Brisbane +44.5
Gold Coast Suns ($11.00) vs Essendon Bombers ($1.04) – Saturday 7:40pm AEST – 14/04/2012
Recent clashes: Essendon won the only clash by 139 points
AFL Tipping: 2% Gold Coast 98% Essendon
Game preview: A number of significant injuries and suspensions to Essendon this week with Hille, Lonergan, Lovett-Murray, McVeigh and Myers all out this week for the Dons while Dyson, Hocking, Davey, Reimers and Bellchambers who are all handy players come in. Gold Coast lose Brown, Hickey, May and Taylor with Fraser, Day, Bock and Tape back in. We just can’t see Gold Coast improving heavily on their last two games against a Essendon side who are flying. A question of how much.
Essendon by 60 points
Line: Essendon -57.5
Western Bulldogs ($3.50) vs St Kilda Saints ($1.30) – Saturday 7:40pm AEST – 14/04/2012
Recent clashes: St Kilda have won 4 of the last 6 clahses including a round 12 win by 24 points
AFL Tipping: 20% Western Bulldogs 80% St Kilda
Game preview: The dogs disappointed us last week letting Adelaide have 27 shots on goal to their 19 while the Saints destroyed Gold Coast which was a surprise. No changes to the Saints team while Dickson is out and Cordy in for Dogs. We are finally prepared to write off the Dogs in a game and this is it. Saints should get the upper hand in this one.
Saints by 27
Line: Saints -12.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants ($26.00) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.01) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST – 15/04/2012
Recent clashes: First meeting
AFL Tipping: 1% Greater Western Sydney 99% West Coast
Game preview: West Coast have ‘rested’ Embley, Glass, Priddis and Rosa for this game and have decided to give some of their young kids a go. GWS have dropped Wilson and Tyson with Edwards, Brogan, Treloar, Sumner and Tomlinson into the team. This is also a question of how much. West Coast beat a team like Melbourne by 100+ points so we can’t see them beating GWS by any less.
West Coast by 135
Line: West Coast -98.5
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.18) vs Adelaide Crows ($4.85) – Sunday 3:15pm AEST – 15/04/2012
Recent clashes: Wins are split 4 a piece from last 8 with Adelaide winning the last meeting by 20 in Adelaide in Round 1 last year
AFL Tipping: 92% Hawthorn 8% Adelaide
Game preview: Smith is a big out for the Hawks with Young, Shiels, Cheney and Hill all selected. Adelaide lose Douglas to injury with Knights, Martin, Kerridge and Shaw selected. We have been waiting for this game for the last two weeks expecting Adelaide to open much shorter than they are on the betting as we think they are over rated… but geez, hawthorn are short here. Hawks should win this game but they won’t blow the crows away. The team is hungry and have a lot to prove.
Hawthorn by 17
Line: Adelaide +29.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($4.85) vs Geelong Cats ($1.18) – Sunday 4:40pm AEST – 15/04/2012
Recent clashes: Geelong have won 7 of the last 8 matches including a round 7 win last year by 66
AFL Tipping: 4% North Melbourne 96% Geelong
Game preview: Ziebell, Warren and Delaney are all in the mix for the Roos this week with no outs while the Cats also have no outs and Gillies, Stephenson and Horlin-Smith all in the mix. This is a tougher game than paper and the odds suggest. The cat’s are no certainties here. They should be favourites and should be tipped but the Roos were impressive against the Dons in round one and just went on with it against GWS last week and put them away. The experience and class of Geelong should get them over the line.
Geelong by 15
Line: North Melbourne +30.5
Betting – Going with some nice VALUE this week.
Carlton +20.5 at $1.32
Richmond -8.5 at $1.36
Essendon -31.5 at $1.25
North Melbourne +50.5 at $1.33
Adelaide +49.5 at $1.33
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet