AFL Finals 2017 – Week 1

AFL 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Finals 2017 Week 1 preview. The home and away season is over and we have had a week off (which no one liked) for all the teams to get their game plans right and rest up players to complete fitness. There looks to be two close matches on the cards this weekend while two look very much open and closed. Here’s to a competitive finals series! Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.

Best Bets

(6 units): Port Adelaide -15.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
(2 units): Geelong @ $1.74 H2H

Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results

Adelaide VS Greater Western Sydney

Thursday 7 September – 7.50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -13.5, GWS +13.5

Adelaide Crows
The Crows finished top of the table and have earned the right to host the Giants in Adelaide on Thursday evening. Having had an up and down campaign, the Crows ended the season with 2 loses, a draw and 2 wins from the past 5 matches.

Throughout the year, several teams have including the Kangaroos have shown the formula required to beat this Crows team by flooding back and counter-attacking for the entire game. Will the Giants exploit it or will this high scoring Crows team back at home be too good for this Giants team?

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants came to form at the right end of the season and won 4 of the last 5 coming into the finals with only a trip up down at the Cattery on the lead in costing them a home final and having to travel to the Adelaide here. The Giants have traveled well enough all year but they certainly are a query at this specific oval with a 56 point loss early in the year.

This is the most full team the Giants have had on the park all year with just Buntine, Kennedy and Griffen missing. Don’t dismiss the Giants here.

Summary
These two teams met Round 1 at Adelaide Oval and the Crows recorded a huge 56 point win. Apart from the game against the Cats, the Giants have been able to implement a strong defensive game and kept teams to under 62 points the previous three weeks. It will take a strong midfield effort and defensive masterclass from the Giants to get over the Crows today. This is the Crows race to lose… as long as they adjust several times throughout the match they should be able to control the Giants.

Prediction
Adelaide by 12 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10

Geelong VS Richmond

Friday 8 September – 7.50pm AEST – MCG
Line: Geelong -4.5, Richmond +4.5

Geelong Cats
The Cats come into the finals having won 4 of their last 5 with wins over the Tigers and Giants in recent weeks on the record. The Cats have won their last two at the MCG but haven’t been overly impressive at the stadium all year, making this a fair and even contest.

The commentators have under-estimated the Cats midfield all year and more importantly in the past few weeks. This is a team that when they turn up and play at 100%, can beat any team on any day.

Richmond Tigers
The Tigers come into the finals having won 6 of their last 7 matches with only a loss to the Cats at Simonds Stadium the blooper on the record. Outside of the match, the Tigers have scored between 93 and 155 points, while the Cats kept them to just 66 points in the loss. The Tigers won 9 of the last 11 at the MCG with a 9 point loss to the Swans and 2 point loss to the Dockers the only loses there for the year.

The Tigers will need to break the tags on Martin and Cotchin while putting more time into Dangerfield to win the midfield this time around against the Cats. I can see the Tigers small forwards having a big influence on this match.

Summary
The last time these two met an under-manned Cats took care of the Tigers at home in a 14 point low-scoring win at Simonds Stadium.

Back at the MCG, we can expect a very even contest that is extremely hard to predict.

Prediction
Geelong by 10 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
Geelong @ $1.74 H2H

Sydney VS Essendon

Saturday 9 September – 4.20pm AEST – SCG
Line: Sydney -32.5, Essendon +32.5

Sydney Swans
The Swans come into the final as the ‘form team’ of the competition having won 15 of the past 17 matches with only loses to the Hawks by 6 and 6 points in that time as negatives.

This Swans team can put 100 points past almost any team on command and with the game at home, at the SCG, we can expect a high scoring game from the Swans who have scored 100 plus points the past 4 matches here.

Essendon Bombers
The Bombers finished off the season with 6 wins from their last 8 matches with loses to the Bulldogs and Crows along the way. They didn’t beat any top 8 teams after defeating the Cats in Round 8 and this is a real tough ask on the road.

Summary
The Swans beat the Bombers here back in Round 14 by 1 point, but the Swans have gone onwards and upwards since then while the Bombers have slide backwards with a few players not quite playing to the top of form. The Bombers do have a shot here and it will require them taking a strong early lead on the Swans catching them napping early. If the Swans of old bring their high intensity football from the opening siren, I can’t see the Bombers going close.

Prediction
Sydney by 26 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10

Port Adelaide VS West Coast

Saturday 9 September – 7.50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -15.5, West Coast +15.5

Port Adelaide Power
The Power enter the finals having won 6 of their last 8 matches, but have failed on almost every occasion throughout the year to put away the real top teams. On their best, the Power are unstoppable and can match it with the very best teams, but it requires a full 4-qtr effort and I just haven’t seen that all year from them.

The Power come into this with a near full strength team, playing the right brand of football and a recent strong record over the Eagles.

West Coast Eagles
The Eagles were lucky to sneak into the finals with the Demons screwing up in the final round and the Crows not turning up to play at Domain Stadium. The Eagles come into this match off a win and they haven’t put two together since Round 8. They face a rough Power team who really have had their number both times this year (yes they won one but look at the stats) and will need to put 100 on the board to have a chance against this Power squad.

Summary
The Power are playing the right brand of football at this time of year to take care of this Eagles side who have struggled against some really average sides throughout the year and have also not been great away from home. To be fair to the Eagles, they play Adelaide Oval alright, but not well enough to contest here.

Strong opinion on the Power to take care of the Eagles with relative ease.

Prediction
Port Adelaide by 35 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Port Adelaide -15.5 line @ $1.92

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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