AFL Finals 2017 – Week 3

AFL 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Finals 2017 Week 3 preview. And then there were four! The odds reflect how open this week really is with both outsiders under $3 odds this week. It will be interesting to see if either favourites who have had just 1 match in 3 weeks come out flat early due to the bye weeks or if they are fresh and ready to fire. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.

Best Bets

(8 units): Richmond -8.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10

Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results

Adelaide VS Geelong

Friday 22 September – 7.50pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -17.5, Geelong +17.5

Adelaide Crows
The Crows made short work of the Giants in the Qualifying Final and enter this match at home as clear favourites against the Cats who beat them by 22 points early in the season, before the Crows turned things around several rounds back back at home for a 21 point victory. The Crows lost their final two matches heading into the finals and having played just 1 game in 3 weeks will be questionable jumping out of the gates early when they must against this Cats team. The Crows have kept their victims to under 80 points in 7 of the last 8 games played at Adelaide Oval and pressure + defensive prowess (as shown by the Tigers) go a long way against this Cats side. The Crows haven’t scored less than 80 points at home since Round 8 and with clear skies on the radar, I wouldn’t expect anything less.

Geelong Cats
The Cats turned up to play last week while it was clear very early in the piece that the Swans were flat and didn’t bring their A game, something the cats were more than happy to take advantage of and put the game away really by the start of the third quarter. The Cats measured up well at home against the Crows but were outmatched in Adelaide the last time these two met. The cats have the cattle to test the Crows and certainly win this match, it all depends on turning up with the same intensity as last week along with a game plan to match.

Summary
A fair few people ate their words last week writing off the Cats. You don’t finish equal top on points without having a team with talent. The Crows have been the form team for large parts of the season but there have also been holes exposed in their formations throughout the year for the Cats to exploit tonight. This is a really even match-up and it’s hard to see either teams winning this in a complete blowout.

Prediction
Adelaide by 5 points

Betting – Confidence 80% 
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10

Richmond VS GWS

Saturday 23 September 4.45pm – MCG
Line: Richmond -8.5, GWS +8.5

Richmond Tigers
The Tigers have consistently been the real deal all year at the MCG and beat the Giants here last meeting by 19 points. The Giants did do the Tigers by 3 points up in Sydney early in the year, but are they going as well as then? The Tigers were brutal with their pressure against the Cats in the qualifying final and got the chocolates on the day. The week between matches will only help the Tigers to recharge to bring the same intensity as required.

Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants made easy work of the Eagles up at Spotless Stadium in what was the easiest Semi Final opposition you will see for some time in the Eagles team away from home. The Giants were exposed significantly against the Crows and we can’t take that match out of our mind when tipping here. This is the Giants second trip all year to the MCG and they will face a 90,000+ Richmond crowd.

Summary
This will be a testing match where the team to kick away in the first two-quarters will be very hard to run down late. The Tigers will take full advantage of the MCG and I can see them getting the job done in the end.

Prediction
Richmond by 24 points

Betting – Confidence 95%
Richmond -8.5 line @ $1.92

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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