AFL Round 1 – 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 1 2017 Preview. It’s been a long wait, but the 2017 AFL season gets underway on Thursday night with the traditional Carlton VS Richmond match. With 5 days of staggered AFL action over the first round, we will get to sit down and watch every match. Betting wise, there are a few standout bets and they are listed below.

Best Bet (2.5 units): St Kilda H2H @ $1.88
Other Bet (1 unit): Richmond -14.5 line @ $1.92
Other Bet (1 unit): Adelaide VS GWS Over 189.5 points @ $1.90

Carlton ($2.95) VS Richmond ($1.45)

Thursday 23/03/2017 – 7.20pm – MCG

Carlton
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 1 win 4 loses
Pre-Season Last Match: Carlton 12-11 83 defeated by Fremantle 2-12-14 104

Carlton come into this season with a relatively strong team setup but having been fairly taken care of in the final JLT game against Fremantle who suffered two injuries during the match .

The Blues seem to always match up well against the Tigers, but they certainly need to show a lot more than we saw in the pre-season to get the win here – having suffered a 92 point loss the game prior to St Kilda.

Richmond
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 3 wins 2 loses
Pre-Season Last Match: Collingwood 1-15-15 114 defeated Richmond 16-11 107.

The Tigers put in a very even effort to beat the Power in the second last game of the JLT Community Series and were good enough when defeated by the Pies in the last match of the season. This isn’t a team that will break any records this season and chances are they won’t be competing for the premiership when it counts either, but they have an overall solid setup that can shutdown the Carlton gameplan.

Expected Result
Richmond by 27 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
Richmond -14.5 line @ $1.92

Collingwood ($2.90) VS Western Bulldogs ($1.48)

Friday 24/03/2017 – 7.50pm – MCG

Collingwood
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 2-3
Pre-Season Last Match: Collingwood 1-15-15 114 defeated Richmond 16-11 107.

Two strong lead in games suggest to me that the Pies are fit and ready to fire for Round 1 after a close loss to Fremantle and then a solid win over the Tigers fighting it out all the way to the line. They won’t be falling over easy here at the MCG and have to be given a fighters chance.

Western Bulldogs
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 3-2
Pre-Season Last Match: Western Bulldogs 4-13-12 126 defeated Gold Coast 16-9 105

Coming off a grand final win, the Bulldogs look to have the team to go back-to-back this year. The Doggies haven’t had the best of pre-season lead ins with a loss to Brisbane with some poor kicking infront of goal and they let the Suns get 55 points clear of them in the 2nd QTR of their last match before kicking their way back into it and winning by 19 points. There is no doubt the the doggies are the real deal, but there is certainly still a bit of ring rust heading into Round 1.

Expected Result
Western Bulldogs by 10 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.20

Sydney ($1.25) VS Port Adelaide ($4.60)

Saturday 25/03/2017 – 4.35pm – SCG

Sydney
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 4-1
Pre-Season Last Match: Sydney 11-11 77 defeated St Kilda 10-14 74

Won 2 of 3 pre-season matches with a tight win over the Saints and a close low scoring game over GWS with poor kicking from both sides infront of goal. Gave up a big 30 point lead to only just get home over the Saints. This is the Swans we have grown to know with some average pre-season performances, but they seem to turn it on when needed Round 1. The Swans will be competitive early in the season, as they always are, but they don’t look to be at 100% just yet.

Port Adelaide
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 4-1
Pre-Season Last Match: Port Adelaide 14-12 96 defeated Hawthorn 1-8-11 68

Port Adelaide recorded a strong lead-in win over what looks to be a Hawthorn team that is still trying to gel. Port Adelaide had workman like performances from the full team on the night and got the job done well. Port were poor when defeated in the prior match to the Tigers but they measured up nicely against the Saints prior to that.

Port Adelaide are a team that has nothing expected of them this year and with a strong start to the match, they will be able to test the Swans here.

Expected Result
Sydney by 15 points

Betting – Confidence 65%
Port Adelaide Quarter Time Line +5.5 @ $1.95

St Kilda ($1.88) VS Melbourne ($2.10)

Saturday 25/03/2017 – 4.35PM – Etihad Stadium

St Kilda
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 1-4
Pre-Season Last Match: Sydney 11-11 77 defeated St Kilda 10-14 74

The Saints come into this match off a roller coaster pre-season where they defeated the Power by 1 point, smashed the Blues by 92 points and then lost to the Swans in a close contest by 3 points. The Saints have looked the real deal to me with the last two lead in runs and with this match being held at Etihad stadium, a stadium the Demons have a horror recent record at, the Saints have to start clear favourites.

Melbourne
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 2-3
Pre-Season Last Match: West Coast 14-11 95 defeated Melbourne 1-9-7 70

This looks the year where Melbourne can make a strong run towards the finals. The Demons kicked off the pre-season matches with a win over the Bulldogs (who kicked poorly on the night) and took care of the Blues with relative ease. When they stepped up to a higher level of match against the Eagles their midfield was absolutely found out and they lacked the ability to prevent the Inside 50 ball. The Demons have to turn up and be at their very best to beat the Saints here.

Expected Result
Saints by 30 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
St Kilda H2H @ $1.88

Gold Coast ($1.39) VS Brisbane ($3.35)

Saturday 25/03/2017 – 7.25pm – Metricon Stadium

Gold Coast
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 3-2
Pre-Season Last Match: Western Bulldogs 4-13-12 126 defeated Gold Coast 16-9 105

The Suns put a 50+ point lead on the Bulldogs in the lead in pre-season match but were not able to withstand the Bulldogs in the 2nd half. This is a familiar stat to what happened last year for this team that were able to match it with some of the best for at least half a game.

The Suns were only just able to hold off the Dons the prior lead in match and did beat the Lions in the first match of the pre-season by 24 points.

Brisbane
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 1-4
Pre-Season Last Match: Adelaide 1-20-13 142 defeated Brisbane 1-15-4 103

The Lions did exactly what was expected of them in the pre-season, they didn’t show us a lot even with a surprise win over the Bulldogs who were horrible on the night. The Crows had 24 shots on them in the lead in match and this is something we can expect to happen a lot this year.

The Lions will need to win the midfield to stand a chance against this Suns team that will punish any team hard within the front 50.

Expected Result
Gold Coast by 46 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Gold Coast by 40+ points @ $3.35

Essendon ($2.60) VS Hawthorn ($1.61)

Saturday 25/03/2017 – 7.25pm – MCG

Essendon
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 3-2
Pre-Season Last Match: Geelong 1-17-11 122 defeated Essendon 2-12-10 100

The full-strength Bombers were solid all pre-season. They didn’t win a match, but they measured up against the Pies, Suns and Cats. The Bombers got out to a near 50 point lead against the Cats and then lost by 22, showing just how far they have to come this season.

Don’t expect the Bombers to roll over, but there is clearly some fitness to come throughout the season and a lot of ring rust from a year missing under the belt of many players.

Hawthorn
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 3-2 (two loses to in-form cats)
Pre-Season Last Match: Port Adelaide 14-12 96 defeated Hawthorn 1-8-11 68

After defeating Geelong in the opening match of the pre-season, the Hawks lost to the Roos and then Port Adelaide along the way. I thought the Hawks looked to have the ability to be contesting for a top 4 spot after their first display of the season, but I saw quite a few cracks in the last two pre-season matches. This is a well oiled machine and while there haven’t been huge changes to the setup, it will take them a few rounds before they gel fully and opponents will be able to exploit this weakness.

Expected Result
Hawthorn by 22 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Hawthorn -10.5 line @ $1.92

North Melbourne ($3.25) VS West Coast ($1.45)

Sunday 26/03/2017 – 1.10pm – Etihad Stadium

North Melbourne
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 1-4
Pre-Season Last Match: GWS 2-15-17 125 defeated North Melbourne 12-15 87

North Melbourne has had a mixed pre-season with several key personal changes at the end of the last year meaning issues geling throughout the team setup. They actually played well in game 1 beating the Swans and were good against the Hawks, but they were absolutely toweled up by GWS last week by a GWS team that lost Corr and Johnson in Q1 and Coniglio in Q2. The Roos won the match in terms of tackles and free kicks and all the other key stats were fairly even, but they were clearly beaten on the score board with similar inside 50s showing just got much issue they will have inside 50 this year and even more importantly, in the back 50 allowing 14 marks inside 50 to GWS.

West Coast
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 3-2
Pre-Season Last Match: West Coast 0-14-11 95 defeated Melbourne 1-9-7 70

The Eagles have been rock solid in the pre-season with their new look team that includes the Hawks Sam Mitchell. They beat the Demons by 25, Fremantle by 55 and lost to GWS by 33.

I think the Eagles are a very solid unit and will be hard to beat at home again this year. They were near impossible to beat at Domain Stadium last year winning 10 of 12 home and away matches there (only lost to the top teams in the Dogs and Crows) but very hard to predict away from home.

I have a bit of a query about the clearance work of their new setup and i’m wondering just how exposed they will be by the Roos fast movement of the ball… but with it all said and done, i can’t see the Roos effectively holding out the Eagles forward line and they will concede just too many points on the night.

Expected Result
West Coast by 14 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $2.20.

Adelaide ($2.40) VS Greater Western Sydney ($1.68)

Sunday 26/03/2017 – 3.20pm – Adelaide Oval
When they met last year: R8 GWS 108-84. R10 Adelaide 107-85.

Adelaide
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 2-3
Pre-Season Last Match: Adelaide 1-20-13 142 defeated Brisbane 1-15-4 103.

Adelaide come into this after a shootout against the Brisbane Lions. This doesn’t provide any team with the necessary practice for mine with such an open and flowing game, especially when you are playing the potential premiers in the Giants R1. Adelaide’s pre-season has been solid apart from the opening game loss to the Tigers. They stuck solid against the Cats in the 2nd match overall.

This Adelaide team has the potential to really slide back down the expectations this year and there is a query over just how they will measure up against the Giants juggernaut.

Greater Western Sydney
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 2-3
Pre-Season Last Match: GWS 2-15-17 125 defeated North Melbourne 12-15 87

The Giants undoubtedly come into R1 with the strongest pre-season performances of any team. They demolished the Eagles, had a tough loss to the Swans when they simply kicked poorly infront of goals and finished off the pre-season with a drubbing of North Melbourne.

The real issue that comes into play is the injuries they picked up along the way and just how that will affect the overall team performance. Personally, I feel that the lost players are all replaceable in their roles and it won’t affect the team as much as many may suggest. This is a team with the deepest list in the league and they are looking to start their potential premiership year with a win.

Based on the performances delivered last year, we have to feel this is a close match-up and the one result we can count on is points to be scored.

Expected Result
Greater Western Sydney by 2 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
Over 189.5 points @ $1.90

Fremantle ($2.82) VS Geelong ($1.52)

Sunday 26/03/2017 -4.40pm – Domain Stadium
When they met last year: Geelong 78-61 in Fremantle.

Fremantle
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 4-1
Pre-Season Last Match: Fremantle 2-12-14 104 defeated Carlton 12-11 83

Fremantle got off to a rocky start to the pre-season being demolished by the Eagles by over 50 points. After that, they turned up solidly against two bottom 8 teams in the Pies and Blues. They beat the Pies in a tight 2 point win while they fairly got over the Blues. I personally think the Blues have been horrible at best in the pre-season while the Pies haven’t been great either. Fremantle will have to go to a next level to measure up in this match.

Geelong
Last 5 Round 1 match results: 3-2 (twice against hawks!)
Pre-Season Last Match: Geelong 1-17-11 122 defeated Essendon 2-12-10 100

Geelong have been doing Geelong things in the pre-season. They Gave Essendon a 40 point lead at half-time last week before getting a head at 3QTR time and running away with the match. It certainly showed us that the Cats are still the real deal, but that there is still a lot of work to be done to get the consistency in-place. They played well the game prior against the predicted top 4 team in the Crows and it was only poor kicking that let them down.

The gut says that Geelong kick away with this game but the heart says you just can’t bet confidently on either of these teams in Round 1 based on previous results.

Expected Result
Geelong by 20 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.20

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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