Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 11 2017 Preview. We enter a short round with several teams on the Bye this week and we can expect similar for the next few weeks. Even with only six games over the weekend, there are a few that standout betting wise and they look very even overall for tipsters. You could go 2 out of 6 or 6 out of 6 with a bit of luck. Hopefully out tips help you have a perfect weekend with a few of our outsiders tipped on top. Good luck and happy tipping.
(4 units): Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.40
(3 units): West Coast -9.5 Line @ $1.92
(2 units): Collingwood +2.5 line @ $1.92
Port Adelaide ($1.20) VS Hawthorn ($4.60)
Thursday 1 June – 7.50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -33.5, Hawthorn +33.5
Port Adelaide Power
The Power were done over late last week by the Cats in Geelon and it was a very competitive effort. The Power won the clearances 40 to 32 and has 13 to 11 marks inside 50. The Hitouts were won by 3 but the Cats had 16 more tackles on the night and 9 more free kicks. The Cats also had 14 more inside 50s and 2 more shots on goal for the night from 72 more disposals.
The Power were up to the task set by the Cats on the night and a little bit of umpire intersection at the end may have got the Cats the win.
The Power have lost all 4 tests this season but been relatively competitive against many other teams. They look a clear finals contender, but lack the ability to get the job done in a close finish. This will be another strong contest.
The Hawks have won 3 of their last 4 and got a surprise win over the weekend as 35 point underdogs at the line. They were lucky on the day with the Swans down 2 men early in the game and the Swans just didn’t see out the match.
The Hawks veterans including their forwards have started to find their feet after a slow start to the year and this is a Hawks team that has been very competitive in first halves and are now trying to work their way through their second half problems.
The Hawks had more inside 50s and scoring shots on the night with 8 less free kicks. They lost the Hitouts by 12 and tackles were even. The Hawks had all the time in the world with 123 marks to just 58 from the Swans as well as 408 disposals compared to 330. The Hawks lost the Clearances 41 to 50 but won the Marks inside 50 7 to 6 which is a low number for both teams.
The Powers had 5 wins this year by 28, 89, 90, 83 and 72 while their loses have been all by under 40 points with close defeats.
The Power are back at home where they face a Hawks team that has won 3 from 4 and lost to the Pies by 18 points. This feels like a Power win, but I can’t see the Hawks being blown out of the game like the line suggests could happen.
Port Adelaide by 25 points.
Betting – Confidence 70%
Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.30
Geelong ($2.10) vs Adelaide ($1.73)
Friday 2 June – 7.50pm AEST – Simonds Stadium
Line: Geelong +4.5, Adelaide -4.5
The Cats have won two in a row after three very poor games in a row.
The Cats were very good last week against the Power and it was really a 50/50 game, but the Cats at home prevailed once again with 14 more inside 50s, 2 more shots on goal, 16 more tackles, 19 more marks but 2 less marks inside 50 and 8 less clearances.
The Cats will measure up well against this Adelaide team that is still looking for a test after running over the Dockers last week.
The Crows rampaged over the Dockers last week with 72 to 40 inside 50s and 43 scoring shots to 13. They won the Hitouts 49 to 34, Tackles 83 to 73, Marks 93 to 52, Clearances 41 to 36 and Marks inside 50 13 to 2.
The Crows certainly have the right mix of age groups in their team line-up and 80 and 100 point wins are certainly solid foundations for this task against the Cats, but it’s hard to look past the loses to the Roos and the Demons the two weeks prior. Can the Cats take advantage of what the Demons and Roos did?
The Game of the round. We have a Cats team that has proved itself the past two round as a top contender taking on an Adelaide that has won by 180 in it’s last two matches, but has been shown up by lesser teams away from home in the past month.
I’m expecting a very close match all the way to the finish, but I’m expecting the Crows to have too much firepower up forward and they will account for the Cats.
Adelaide by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.40
Gold Coast ($2.55) vs West Coast ($1.52)
Saturday 3 June – 1.45pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast +9.5, West Coast -9.5
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns looked ready to cause an upset last start against the Demons after being in a commanding position but then lost by a huge 35 points. It was the effort of a team lacking a leader with Ablett out and a team that didn’t believe in it’s coach.
Eade is on the ropes and if the Suns lose heavily in this match, I’d expect his head to be on the chopping block. This will be a tough ask for the Suns who were beaten at this stadium by the Crows by 67 points earlier in the year.
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles were found out last week against the Giants at home. It was a solid enough effort, but they were outplayed for the whole match. I really think the Giants are the real deal and it makes the loss by the Eagles not bad overall.
The main issue once again is how the Eagles will react after a loss and how they will react on the road.
Kennedy is certainly a big hit here for the Eagles
It’s impossible to tip the Suns here off recent performances and expected performance % from the team, but that being said, it’a also difficult to tip the Eagles on the road missing the best forward in the league.
West Coast Eagles by 35 points.
Betting – Confidence 85%
West Coast -9.5 Line @ $1.92
Greater Western Sydney ($1.22) VS Essendon ($4.35)
Saturday 3 June – 4.35pm AEST – Spotless Stadium
Line: GWS -28.5, Essendon +28.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants have won 8 of their last 9 matches with three of the five matches by under a kick. They were much better than the Eagles with 8 more scoring shots, 13 more inside 50s, 10 more hitouts, 23 more Clearances and 4 more marks inside 50.
This is a Giants team that is now playing for each other. They needed the loss at the start of the season and they needed the loss to the Saints. They keep going from strength to strength and will be hard to beat by any team this year.
Won two in a row and led for a large portion of the match against the Tigers, but fell short of the mark against a very good team. The KPIs don’t bode well for the Dons with 10 less scoring shots and 30 less inside 50s on the day even though they won the Hitouts by 20 and clearances by 5. The big difference was the Tigers had 8 marks more inside 50 and were just better around the ground.
It will take a huge effort for the Bombers to match it with this Giants line-up.
The Bombers aren’t a team to roll over and give in easy and the Giants aren’t a team right now that is blowing teams away. This sets it up perfectly for a Giants win by 1-39 for the betting, once again.
Giants by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.30
North Melbourne ($2.10) VS Richmond ($1.74)
Saturday 3 June – 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: North Melbourne +5.5, Richmond -5.5
The Roos come into this having won 4 of thier last 5 but lost to the Swans in that time and only beat the Demons, Blues and Suns in that time with the obvious exception win being over Adelaide.
As with a few others teams last round, the Roos really got there well enough in the end with 7 more shots on goal, 8 more inside 50s and 8 more marks inside 50. They lost the Clearances and Hitouts which gave the Blues a chance on the day and the Blues actually had 50 more effective disposals on the day.
The Roos have the ability to win this, but have to take another step up.
Lost 4 in a row before finally getting a win on the board over the Bombers. Never far out of a game on their worst day and outside of one big loss to the Crows, their other loses this year have been by 5 points or less. The Tigers have failed to score more than 88 points in the past six weeks and a tough low-ish scoring affair wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.
The Tigers come into this hitting all the right KPIs with 71 to 42 inside 50s, 26 to 16 scoring shots and 16 to 8 marks inside 50 even though they lost the clearances and hitouts on the day to the Bombers as well as effective disposals.
This is probably the hardest to pick game of the round. The Roos continue to play this stadium well and they come into the match with solid enough form that will match up well against the Tigers. This is a game that will really be won in the forward 50 of both teams. The Tigers will need to put a few more goals on the board than the past few weeks to match this Roos team that has scored over 100 points in 4 of it’s last 5 games.
North Melbourne by 12 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
North Melbourne +5.5 line @ $1.92
Fremantle ($1.83) vs Collingwood ($2.00)
Sunday 4 June – 4.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle -2.5, Collingwood +2.5
It’s not often you see a team put up favourites after a 100 point loss. The Dockers were horrible against the Crows after strong wins over the Bombers, Tigers and Blues. This is a team that had checked out from the very start of the match and were never in it the whole way.
The Dockers are expected to regain Sandilands this week which will be an important match-up against Grundy in the middle…. if he isn’t fit enough to run with him the whole game, then he may just prove to be a liabilty.
The Dockers have the ability to bounce back here.
The Pies have been one of the hardest teams to catch and read all year and that is going to continue here. They took the Giants to the limit three rounds back but have had to fight to get wins over the Hawks and Lions in recent weeks. Their best is better than Freo’s, but if they don’t turn up early, Domain stadium is a harsh stadium to try and come back at.
The Pies continue to hit all the relevant KPIs and seem to have the will and need to win.
I’m shocked to see the Dockers as favourites here. The Pies best has been truly top 4 worthy all year, but they are few and far between with those performances. The Dockers on the otherhand have been a consistent top 8 style game and while they can win this, I have to be against them in this match.
Collingwood by 19 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Collingwood +2.5 line @ $1.92