Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 14 2017 Preview. The teams coming off of byes have been getting the better of most teams this year, but there have been a few that just haven’t turned up. The path to the finals is becoming clearer and the form lines are starting to become easier to spot. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
(4 units): Collingwood H2H @ $2.15
(4 units): Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10
(2 units): Essendon +16.5 Line @ $1.92
(2 units): Greater Western Sydney -34.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Melbourne +15.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Geelong -39.5 line @ $1.92
Adelaide ($1.10) VS Hawthorn ($7.00)
Thursday 22 June – 7.50pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -48.5, Hawthorn +48.5
Smashed the Saints before having a bye last week. The Crows were disappointing away against the Cats but proved a few points against the Saints. Beat the Hawks by 24 points in Round 2 away from home this year.
Adelaide has scored 153, 140, 66, 143 and 111 points the past 5 starts at Adelaide Oval and certainly play this track well.
Not a lot to look into really… a premiership contender.
Lost two in a row but haven’t been disgraced in recent rounds. Their biggest loss did though come at this track with a 51 point loss to the Power after being held to 0 goals for the first half of the match. Port probably should have won by closer to 80 points but kicked poorly in front of goal.
The Hawks at their best don’t have the guns required to deal with this Crows team at their best, so they need to come out of the blocks to have a chance.
It’s very hard to see the Hawks having any chance in this match today and I can easily see a blowout being on the cards infront of the home crowd for the crows. That being said, i’m not exactly thrilled to be betting at the current line.
Happy to suggest the Hawks will be trying to put on a bit of a defensive masterclass to stop the Crows from hitting targets inside 50 early and expect a lower than expected scoring match.
Adelaide by 40 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Total Game Points – UNDER 190.5 Points
Sydney ($1.44) VS Essendon ($2.80)
Friday 23 June – 7.50pm – SCG
Line: Sydney -16.5, Essendon +16.5
The Swans were fairly outplayed by the Tigers for the first half of the match last week but the Tigers just died on their run as they have in quite a few recent matches to allow the Swans a low-scoring victory.
The Swans have failed to kick more than 88 points the past 3 weeks which will be a test against the Bombers who have scored over 100 points in 4 of the past 5 weeks.
The Swans are doing what they need to, to win, but I haven’t been impressed with them at all. They have to improve and play much better today.
The Bombers smashed the Power at Etihad Stadium before a well-deserved bye break. This is a team that performs well fresh and will be looking to prove a few points against a Swans team that for mine seems vulnerable. Richmond exposed quite a few issues early and the Bombers are the type of team that can take advantage of that.
I’m starting to believe in this Bombers team and feel they are now a solid Top 8 position team on current form and represent nice value in this match.
This will be a match won and lost inside of 50 and the pressure will be on for the key forwards of each team to deliver. I’m expecting the Bombers defenders to take care of Buddy and co and it will be down to the smaller forwards to find a few gaps if the Swans are to win. That being said, I’ve been impressed with the Bombers forward line in recent weeks and I’m happy to back them in today.
Essendon by 15 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Essendon +16.5 Line @ $1.92
Collingwood ($2.15) VS Port Adelaide ($1.70)
Saturday 24 June – 1.45pm – MCG
Line: Collingwood +4.5, Port Adelaide -4.5
The Pies have won 3 of their last 5 and their previous two loses have been by a margin of 4 and 3 points to the Giants and Demons.
Unlike early in the season where they couldn’t get more than 86 points on the board, the Pies have scored 90 or more in their last five matches with Jamie Elliot contributing to that effort. Elliot is expected to be an inclusion this week along with Varcoe, Reid and Goldsack and the team is starting to look a little more rounded.
I like everything the Pies are doing right now. They continue to hit all the relevant KPIs and their game plan is mature in nature. Most importantly, they win the Ruck contest and get the required clearances. If the forward line delivers, they are a very hard team to beat on their day.
Port Adelaide Power
The Power suffered a mid-season crisis with a huge loss to the Bombers in Round 12.
Polec is a big out as he breaks lines and that is certainly a nice way to combat this Pies team.
I wasn’t overly impressed with how the Power had to battle it out to beat the Lions last week and with the game being at the MCG, I’m pretty keen to oppose them. The Magpies do everything right all around the grounds and I’m expecting them to find the gaps in this Power outfit having their first game of the season at the MCG.
Collingwood by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Collingwood H2H @ $2.15
Brisbane ($5.75) VS Greater Western Sydney ($1.14)
Saturday 24 June – 4.35pm – Gabba
Line: Brisbane +34.5, Greater Western Sydney -34.5
Played nicely enough last week against the Power but still found themselves beaten on the day by 40 points.
This is on paper a tougher test, but I really get the feeling up at the Gabba that the Lions will come out firing trying to put a bit of a score on the board early against the Giants.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Won 9 of their last 11 matches. Beaten fairly on the day last week at Etihad against the Blues on what was very much a down performance for them. Had the bye round and will be ready to make a statement against the Lions.
The Giants are expected to see quite a few quality players return to the team this week and they will be fired up to beat off this Lions team that allows far too many Marks inside 50.
Expecting the Giants to get every chance to put a big score on the board against the Lions today and they will be far too good around the grounds.
Greater Western Sydney by 60 points.
Betting – Confidence 85%
Greater Western Sydney -34.5 line @ $1.92
Western Bulldogs ($1.42) VS North Melbourne ($2.90)
Saturday 24 June – 7.25pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -16.5, North Melbourne +16.5
Lost two in a row and failed to get past 56 points the past two matches. Haven’t scored more than 90 points since Round 5 which is a fair worry.
Since the bye, this team just hasn’t lacked the intensity needed to win AFL football. They were kept goalless in the first quarter against the Demons and were well and truly taken care of. On the KPIs they had their chances with only 5 less inside 50s but 12 fewer shots on goal. They dominated the Hitouts but still lost the clearances. Most damning is the 3 marks inside 50 to the Demons 15.
The Doggies have a team that can measure up to the best of them, but they have a lot to prove today.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Roos go into the same basket as the Doggies after two poor loses to the Tigers and Saints in recent weeks.
The Roos scored 107, 145, 104 and 113 with 78 against the Swans as the loss between, but the past two weeks have only managed 66 and 72. The Roos have the team to put scores on the board, but they need to play much better than what they showed last week to match this bulldogs team.
The Roos weren’t terrible in the end on the overall stats last week but they really need to improve their half effort.
This is the ideal game for the Bulldogs to play back into form against a Roos team that look vulnerable.
Western Bulldogs by 26 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10
West Coast ($1.42) VS Melbourne ($2.90)
Saturday 24 June – 7.40pm – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast -15.5, Melbourne +15.5
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles have looked average at very best in recent weeks but they found form back at home against the Cats who really didn’t turn up until it was too late. The Eagles only won by 13 in the end but did what was needed on the day.
Kennedy is still expected to miss this match and the Eagles have struggled for resources up front to score goals in recent weeks has failed to break 100 points in 6 weeks.
The Demons just keep on keeping on and look well suited up against the Eagles today. This is a team that can find the ball, win the ball and kick a score. They have scored over 90 points the past 7 weeks and are expected to test the Eagles again today in what looks a solid match-up.
The Demons have travelled twice this year and got the win both times over the Crows and Suns, so this is another strong test they look ready to match.
Melbourne by 10 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Melbourne +15.5 line @ $1.92
Geelong ($1.19) VS Fremantle ($4.75)
Sunday 25 June – 1.10pm – Simonds Stadium
Line: Geelong -39.5, Fremantle +39.5
The Cats return home after a terrible performance over in Perth against the Eagles. It was a disgraceful performance on the day and they will be looking to put that loss behind them with a spanking of the Dockers today.
They have won 3 from 3 at home this year and look very hard to beat with Hawkins back into the team.
The Dockers looked to be contenders beating some decent teams in the Bombers, Tigers and Blues, but they have well and truly fallen away form wise with 100, 20 and 57 point losses in recent weeks.
While in the past they have always played this stadium quite well, it’s hard to see them scoring enough to get close to the Cats today.
The Cats travelled to Perth in Round 1 and beat the Dockers 73 to 115 and it’s hard not to see this Dockers team getting beaten by at least that today coming off a 57 point loss to the Lions of all teams.
Geelong by 56 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Geelong -39.5 line @ $1.92
Richmond ($1.46) VS Carlton ($2.75)
Sunday 25 June – 3.20pm – MCG
Line: Richmond -13.5, Carlton +13.5
Lost 5 of the past 7 matches and just continues to lose in tough circumstances. Last week played some brilliant football but then just couldn’t adjust for the Swans and were slowly ground down in the end. Haven’t been scoring high scores recently and will need to score in the 80-90 range to win today.
Obviously going well enough and has a few X factor players that need to stand up.
The Blues have won two in a row after getting a bit lucky last week against the Suns. This is a team that has failed to score beyond 83 points in all but 1 of their past 6 matches, and that was one they lost. They struggle to score large totals and that suits this defensive Tigers outfit.
They hit all the right KPIs this Blues team and have one of the best rucks going around. They will match the Tigers around the grounds.
The Blues are playing some nice football, but I just can’t be on them here against the Tigers team that has measured up against almost every team in the league.
With such a low-scoring game expected, I’m happy to play the Tigers 1-39 rather than at the spread.
Richmond by 18 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.00
St Kilda ($1.26) VS Gold Coast ($3.90)
Sunday 25 June – 4.40pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda -24.5, Gold Coast +24.5
St Kilda Saints
The Saints got off to a good start last week which saw them able to hold off the fast finishing Kangaroos. The sSaintslost their three previous races and haven’t exactly looked great at all in recent weeks.
While they are doing enough to get the job done, they will need to step it up against the Suns that handle this stadium well enough.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns won at Etihad early in the year against the Blues and come into this off wins over the Eagles and Hawks, but a disappointing loss to the Blues also.
This is a Suns team that has really failed to score points the past 5 weeks and they will need to turn up today and show more than the last few games.
I can’t be confident of either of these teams. At home and with the injuries suffered to the Suns last week, I have to give the Saints the nod.
St Kilda by 10 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Under 176.5 points @ $1.90