Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 15 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season and every team have had their required bye round break to get ready for the stretch towards the finals. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend and we have our most confident bet of the season on Adelaide. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
(6 units): Adelaide -23.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): Richmond +20.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): Gold Coast 1-39 margin @ $2.50
(1 unit): Sydney 1-39 margin @ $2.50
Melbourne ($1.80) VS Sydney ($2.01)
Friday 30 June – 7.50pm AEST – MCG
Line: Melbourne -2.5, Sydney +2.5
The Demons continue to go from strength to strength this season and last week proved they could conquer the trip to the West to get a win over the Eagles. That is the 4th win in a row and the Demons are officially now a finals contender.
The Demons went west lacking Nathan Jones and Jack Watts who are both expected to return which are both big inclusions. The Demons won the clearances and had similar marks inside 50 to the Eagles last week but killed it on the Rebound 50s score.
The Demons had 10 less inside 50s but converted efficiency while winning the Hitouts and losing the frees by 11 (not a shock over there). They put in a great performance and will be hard to beat again.
The Swans continue to struggle to score big with another effort below 88 points last week, the 4th in a row. They have got the win in 3 of the last 4 but this is a Demons team that can break the line and Rebound hard. The Swans last week were efficient in getting the ball inside 50 and getting shots on goal but failed to shoot straight.
The Swans continue to mark well inside 50 and get the clearances needed inside the midfield. They are a consistent team that are now having their chances on the big stage.
Both teams have been up and about and winning close duals against quality teams and that can take a toll. The Demons have 6 days turn around coming back from Perth and coming off 4 wins in a row, that will have an affect on the result.
Sydney gets the nod at the MCG after proving themselves here in the past few weeks.
Sydney by 15 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Sydney 1-39 margin @ $2.50
Western Bulldogs ($1.45) VS West Coast ($2.75)
Saturday 1 July – 1.45pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -14.5, West Coast +14.5
The Doggies have lost 4 of their last 6 and they only just held on by 1 point last week against the Roos. That was the first game in 7 games they have scored more than 90 points but that did look a shootout on paper. They will need to repeat that effort against the Eagles today.
Looking over the KPIs from last week, the Doggies had 1 less Inside 50 but 6 more shots on goal. They won the Hitouts well and tackled well all day and won the clearances.
The Doggies had a massive 21 Marks Inside 50 which led to their shots on goal, but they shouldn’t have won by just 1 point with 9 more Marks Inside 50 on the day which is a huge concern.
West Coast Eagles
Lost 4 of the last 5 matches and lost convincingly here at Etihad Stadium five weeks ago against the Bombers.
The Eagles measured up well in full control of the game last week against the Demons but just failed to get the win late. Previous start they won well beating the Cats.. but three back had the Suns put away but failed to see out the game late similar to what happened against the Demons.
It’s a hard match this one. Can you really trust the Doggies to get the job done or will the Eagles finally turn up and put in a Top 8 performance away from home?
With Josh Kennedy ruled out of the clash and several important players a week or two away from return, I just can’t trust the Eagles enough to bet the line.
Western Bulldogs by 2 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10
Carlton ($3.55) vs Adelaide ($1.30)
Saturday 1 July – 2.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Carlton +23.5, Adelaide -23.5
The Blues have been a consistent type all year and you know what you will get with the team. They haven’t scored over 100 points all year and were fairly beaten last week at the MCG by the Tigers.
We know the Blues are better than that display last week and they have a dominant ruck and quality midfield, but they continue to fail to get the Inside 50s required to be a significantly better team and in turn the scoring shots required. They also allow too many marks inside 50 in the backline allowing an amazing 24 last week to the Tigers even after winning the clearances by 10.
Went in 50+ point favourites last week and were out coached on the night against a hungry hawks outfit.
The Crows had 12 more inside 50s but 4 less shots on goal showing just how you need to battle this Adelaide team by flooding back.
The Crows hit all the relevant KPIs winning the Hitouts and Clearances but they get rebounded against. I’d be surprised if the Blues put in the exact same plan today though.
I’m expecting the Crows to result and result in stunning fashion this week. This could be a big blowout game and i’m expecting the Blues to not know what hit them.
Adelaide by 56 points
Betting – Confidence 95%
Adelaide -23.5 line @ $1.92
Gold Coast ($1.84) VS North Melbourne ($1.97)
Saturday 1 July – 4.35pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast -1.5, North Melbourne +1.5
Gold Coast Suns
Beat the Eagles before falling to the Blues due to injuries two back. Last week were fairly taken care of by the Saints at Etihad Stadium.
The Suns have been solid at home all year and are hitting solid enough KPIs on the Hitouts, Clearances and Marks Inside 50.
The Suns will be hoping for Ablett to be right this week along with one or two others such as Matera and Kolodjashnij.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Lost three in a row and haven’t been hitting the right KPIs coming into this match. Got close last week but allowed some really bad numbers such as 32 scoring shots on goal and 21 marks inside 50. They lost the Hitouts and lost the Clearances.
Travelling up to Metricon, the Roos have to turn around their current form.
The Bookies have this as a close match and it looks that way on paper. If the Roos turn up this will be a good match, but there is every chance the Roos fail to make the cut on the road and Ablett leads the suns to a solid victory.
Gold Coast by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Gold Coast 1-39 margin @ $2.50
Greater Western Sydney ($1.36) VS Geelong ($3.15) – Spotless Stadium
Saturday 1 July – 7.25pm AEST – Spotless Stadium
Line: GWS -19.5, North Melbourne +19.5
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants bounced back against the Lions after the bye with a dominating display without Kelly. The Lions were down Beams early and never really a factor in the match.
Shiel stood up along with a few others on the day while Patton and Cameron got their chances against the weak Lions defence.
GWS at their best hit all the required KPIs in the Hitouts, tackles, Marks and Inside 50s along with Clearances and Marks inside 50. There is no doubt they are the team to beat this year.
The Cats have the longest injury list in the league and depending on how a few players pulled up including Joel Selwood who was knocked out, they could actually have a decent team on the field.
The Cats were down 3 players last week but still got the win with 10 more inside 50s on the day and shooting poorly infront of goal.
The Cats are the real deal, but with all the injury concerns, they will need to bring a strong game plan to beat the Giants away.
This is one of the most unpredictable games of the week. The Cats are a team that continues to show their best against a team like the Giants. Henderson, Lang, Selwood, Cockatoo, Smith and Selwood are all tests coming into this week and there is a chance of late outs.
I just can’t be confident on the Cats up in Sydney with the chance of late outs and feel they will struggle throughout the match to keep up with the Giants on the run.
Greater Western Sydney by 25 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10
Port Adelaide ($1.33) VS Richmond ($3.35)
Saturday 1 July – 7.40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -20.5, Richmond +20.5
After a very disappointing loss to the Bombers three weeks ago at Etihad Stadium the Power have come out and actually impressed with a dominating display last week over the Magpies.
The Power won the Inside 50s and significantly won shots on goal. They tackled well and actually won the Hitouts surprisingly on the day.
They measured up in the clearances and had enough Marks inside 50. Overall they are playing a solid brand of football and back to Adelaide Oval will see them improve onwards.
The Tigers continue to play well against teams at home and away and most important put on a strong defensive masterclass with only 1 score over 100 from either team in the past 7 games.
Houli is a big out for the Tigers and while they continue to hit all the solid KPIs, they have to prove themselves against this Tigers team that are looking to push towards a Top 4 spot by the end of the year.
The Power have been good the past few weeks, but they haven’t been able to knock off any significant team this year. I’m actually shocked to see them so short against this Tigers team that aren’t doing a lot wrong at all.
More than happy to take the Tigers at the line here and expect them to upset the Power.
Richmond by 2 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Richmond +20.5 line @ $1.92
Essendon ($1.10) VS Brisbane ($7.00)
Sunday 2 July – 1.10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Essendon -43.5, Brisbane +43.5
The Bombers looked home last week yet with a 19 point lead with 3 minutes left found a way to lose to the Swans. They played the game we expected and measured up coming off a big win over the Power and the Bye.
The Bombers continue to hit all the right KPI buttons with Inside 50s, Shots on goal, Hitouts, Tackles and Clearances as well as Marks inside 50.
Expect them to turn and be ready for a shoot out having put 131 past the Power the previous week.
The Lions will come into this match as huge underdogs and rightfully so. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games by 40+ with a win over the Dockers in-between. When they lose, they lose big and the Bombers look the ideal team to do such here.
This looks a match where Daniher may stand up and kick 8 goals against this Lions team that allows far too many marks inside 50.
There’s no doubt that the Bombers for mine will be winning this and winning well, but playing lines this large hasn’t been a very profitable move all year and while I expect it to be covered, i’m happy to just watch.
Essendon by 58 points
Betting – Confidence 50%
Essendon -43.5 @ $1.92
Hawthorn ($2.02) VS Collingwood ($1.80)
Sunday 2 July – 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Hawthorn +2.5, Collingwood -2.5
Lost to the Power convincingly and the Suns at the MCG going into the bye before coming out with a coaching masterclass to beat the Crows last Thursday in Adelaide.
The Hawks haven’t been able to score over 100 points in the past 5 weeks which is a bit of a concern and havn’t been getting a lot of inside 50 ball.. but have been making the most of it when they do.
This is another step up and another tough ask today.
The Pies had been playing some decent football with a 18 point win over the Hawks while then beating the Lions and Dockers before a small loss to the Demons. The Pies failed to fire last week against the Power starting poorly. Jamie Elliot is due back and will help them up forward, but they need to actually have shots in the first place.
Last week the Pies had just 17 shots on a goal to 28 from 47 to 53 inside 50s. The Pies lost the Hitouts and tackles while winning the clearances but losing the Marks Inside 50.
The Pies can improve back to their best here today and with a 18 point win over the Hawks on the board in the past 5 weeks, we can expect the Pies to measure up well again against the Hawks.
I’ve lost all confidence in this Collingwood outfit and while I think they should be winning here, there is no way I can be betting them.
Collingwood by 10 points
Betting – Confidence 65%
Collingwood H2H @ $1.80
Fremantle ($1.75) VS St Kilda ($2.08)
Sunday 2 July – 4.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle -3.5, St Kilda +3.5
The Dockers come into this match with several returning players including Fyfe and Sandilands.
They had their chances last week against the Cats who were down 3 players including Selwood for the match but failed to see out the match.
From what i’ve seen the past few weeks, this is a Freo team that at their best can measure up to a team like the Saints, but at their worst could very much get blown away.
St Kilda Saints
The Saints lost three in a row in disappointing fashion, but have slowly started to regain some confidence the past two weeks with wins over the lowly Roos and Suns.
This is the testing material for the Saints against another ‘bottom 8’ side, away from home. The Saints have failed to score more than 90 points in 5 of their last 6 matches which will give the Dockers their chances.
Another tough game to predict. The Saints at their best should see a win over this Dockers team. That being said, I’m expecting the Dockers to turn up and test the Saints here. I’m not confident either way in this match.
St Kilda by 7 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
St Kilda +3.5 @ $1.92