Teams with the BYE
Friday 8:10pm CST (8:40pm EST) – Adelaide Crows ($2.37) vs Essendon Bombers ($1.59)
Ladder position: West Coast Eagles 14th Essendon Bombers 8th
Recent clashes: Adelaide has won the last 4 matches
Recent form Adelaide Crows: Loss WCE, Loss WB, Loss GEE, Win SYD, BYE
Recent form Eseendon Bombers: Loss FREO, Loss NM, Loss HAW, WIN GEE, Win RICH
Adelaide have won 68% of games at home over the last 5 years compared to Essendons 23% Away win record.
Adelaide and Essendon both average 41 hitouts per game while essendon is 5% more efficient.
Essendon average 2 more clearance per game with 3 more coming at Centre bounce.
Essendon are averaging 4 goals more than Adelaide per game and scoring a goal every 26 disposals compared to 34 for Adelaide.
Essendon are taking more forward 50 marks (2 more) than Adelaide and more contested parks (3% more), while Adelaide take 5 more per game overall.
Adelaide have won 16 more 50/50balls and produced 12 more 1%ers this season
Key team changes
Henderson and Smith in for Adelaide with Douglas and Callinan both out injured.
Essendon rest Hibberd and bring in Slattery.
Essendon have a horrible away record but Adelaide have been even worse at home as of late. Adelaide have not been able to dominate a game and were lucky to pull a win out against Sydney before they had the BYE. Interestingly, Adelaide have a very high win % in the wet which could explain it, also Sydney kicking 13 points in a row can explain it also. Essendon should be too good coming off some nice performances against teams better than Adelaide.
Essendon by 25
1 Unit (25% of your average bet size) on Essendon -6.5 at $1.92
3 Units (75% of your average bet size) on Essendon +21.5 at $1.25
Saturday 2:10pm EST – Richmond Tigers ($1.08) vs Gold Coast Suns ($8.05)
Ladder position: Richmond Tigers 13th Gold Coast Suns 17th
Recent clashes: First match
Recent form Richmond Tigers: Win BRIS, Loss MELB, Loss CARL, Loss ESS
Recent form Gold Coast Suns: Loss HAW, Loss WB, Loss FREO, Loss SYD
Richmond by 24
1 Unit (25% of your average bet size) on Gold Coast -+45.5 at $1.67
3 Units (75% of your average bet size) on Gold Coast +62.5 at $1.27
Do not touch these bets until FINAL Teams are announced 1 hour before the match as Bock and Ablett are not certain starters even though they are named!
Saturday 2:10pm EST – Carlton Blues ($5.75) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.14)
Ladder position: Carlton Blues 4th Collingwood Magpies 1st
Recent clashes: Pies have won the last 4 by 54, 48, 53 and 28
Recent form Carlton Blues: Win SYD, Loss WCE, Win Rich, Loss WB
Recent form Collingwood Magpies: BYE, Win Syd, Win Haw, Win NMFC
Collingwood by 39
4 Units (100% of your average bet size) on Collingwood -18.5 at $1.33
Saturday 7:10pm EST – St Kilda Saints ($1.65) vs West Coast Eagles ($2.25)
Ladder position: St Kilda Saints 11th West Coast Eagles 5th
Recent clashes: St Kilda have won the last 3 matchs by 97, 20 and 35.
Recent form St Kilda Saints: Loss GEE, BYE, Win NMFC, Win PORT
Recent form West Coast Eagles: Win PORT, Win CARL, BYE, Win WCE
West Coast by 45
1 Unit (25% of your average bet size) on West Coast -10.5 at $2.75
1 Unit (25% of your average bet size) on West Coast +9.5 at $1.75
4 Units (100% of your average bet size) on West Coast +33.5 at $1.26
Saturday 8:10pm CST (8:40pm EST) – Melbourne Demons ($1.22) vs Port Adelaide Power ($4.30)
Ladder position: Melbourne Demons 10th Port Adelaide Power 16th
Recent clashes: The last 4 matchs have been 2 each way. Melbourne has not won after 2003 (start of our records) against Port Adelaide, in Adelaide. The last two wins by Melbourne have been by 11 and 1.
Recent form Melbourne Demons: Win FREO, Win Rich, Loss WB, BYE
Recent form Port Adelaide Power: Loss WCE, Loss NMFC, Loss BRIS, Loss STK
Melbourne by 10
Game in Darwin where Port Adelaide play VERY well. Best to not touch the game.
Sunday 1:10pm EST – Sydney Swans ($1.27) vs Fremantle Dockers ($3.80)
Ladder position: Sydney Swans 6th Fremantle Dockers 7th
Recent clashes: The last 4 games is split 2/2 with each team having a win at the others home ground.
Recent form Sydney Swans: Loss CARL, Loss COLL, Loss ADE, Win GCFC
Recent form Fremantle Dockers: Loss MELB, Win BRIS, Win GCFC, BYE
Sydney by 30
Easier games to look at.
Sunday 2:10pm EST – Brisbane Lions ($7.50) vs Geelong Cats ($1.09)
Ladder position: Brisbane Lions 15th Geelong Cats 2nd
Recent clashes: Geelong have won 8 of the last 9 games against Brisbane.
Recent form Brisbane Lions: Loss RICH, Loss FREO, Win Port, Loss HAW
Recent form Geelong Cats: Win STK, Win ADE, Loss Ess, Loss WCE
Geelong by 65
1 Unit (25% of your average bet size) on Geelong -41.5 at $1.92
3 Units (75% of your average bet size) on Geelong -15.5 at $1.24
Sunday 4:40pm EST – North Melbourne Kangaroos ($2.73) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.46)
Ladder position: North Melbourne Kangaroos 12th Western Bulldogs 9th
Recent clashes: The Bulldogs have won the last 4 matchs with the last two wins by 70 and 71
Recent form North Melbourne Kangaroos: Win ESS, Win PORT, Loss STK, Loss CARL
Recent form Western Bulldogs: Win ADE, Win GCFC, Win MELB, Win CARL
Western Bulldogs by 36 points
1 Unit (25% of your average bet size) on Western Bulldogs -17.5 at $1.92
3 Units (75% of your average bet size) on Westernbulldogs +10.5 at $1.26
Early round thoughts
Ade v Ess: Essendon go into the game against Adelaide with Jobe Watson expected back coming off a good win over the Cats and Tigers.
Watch the money closely and more importantly the In’s for Adelaide. Adelaide won the last four, Essendon struggle when travelling. Adelaide could be value.
Rich v Gold Coast: Richmond are in terrible form. Gold Coast have not been great either recently and Ablett will not be playing. Remember, Gold Coast won their last game without Ablett in the team. $1.50ish line will be massive value in this game. Cannot see them losing by more than 50 against Tigers.
Carlton v Collingwood: Carrazzo a big loss last week pre-game and ruled out for Blues this week. Blues suffering a number of injuries. Will be hard to stop the Collingwood press and Pies will win, all a matter of by how much.
St Kilda v West Coast: Saints have had an easy draw beating North (just thumped by 117 the week after) and Port Adelaide (2nd worst team in league). Eagles come in off a win against the 2nd placed Geelong and a win over the Blues 3rd before that. Cannot believe the Eagles go in underdogs. Massive value. Load up early, will come in.
Demons vs Power: Excuse the game against Dogs, were unlucky with umpires, 4 posters and gave up in final QTR when all was lost. WB proved the form the week after beating Blues. Power were raped and pillaged by Saints last week. Clear cut game for us.
Swans v Dockers: Swans lost 3 of last 4 including a loss to Adelaide. 6th vs 7th and Swans WAY too short at $1.27. Freo should have a few big names slotting back in and won their last two (not best teams). Freo will go close, get on the a $1.50/$1.40 line early.
Lions vs Cats: No need to look any further. Cats gain some handy players back this week. They have not lost 3 games in a row since before 2007. Will easily take care of Brisbane.
Roos v Dogs: Loss by 117 and a loss to Saints compared to a BIG win against the blues and 4 in a row wins. Dogs are big Unders this week. Should be hard fought and Dogs will get the better of Roos. Great Multi value game. Happy with a -10.5 start for the Dogs here.