AFL Round 19 – 2017

AFL 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 19 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season, but there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen week in week out in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. The trend has and continues to be that underdogs are covering lines more often than normal and that’s something to keep an eye on. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.

Best Bets

(6 units): Geelong 1-39 @ $2.20
(6 units): Richmond -19.5 line @ $1.92
(6 units): Greater Western Sydney -34.5 @ $1.92
(4 units): Adelaide -21.5 @ $1.93

(2 units): Melbourne -16.5 points @ $1.92

Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results

Hawthorn VS Sydney

Friday 28 July – 7.50pm – MCG
Line: Hawthorn +14.5, Sydney -14.5

Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks continue to do what is required and are putting top efforts on the board worthy of considering today. Beat the Crows and Pies, drew with the Giants and lost in a close one to the Cats before going to WA over the weekend and destroying the Dockers.

If the Hawks are to actually be considered a chance this finals series, this is the win they want to get on the board to make their claims known.

Sydney Swans
Won 7 in a row and their last loss was when losing to the Hawks at the SCG when down 2 players early in the match. Played the MCG just fine beating the Tigers and Demons in the past 8 weeks and come in off smashing the Saints last week at the SCG.

Summary
These are two evenly matched teams and Clarkson always seems to have the coaching wood over the Swans from past meetings. This is a Hawks team playing with real belief and they seem to always lift for games against the Swans. The Swans also are going just as well as the Hawks, if not better. If the Hawks come out firing early, they could setup a big enough break at home to hold out the Swans again. I do have an issue today though with the Hawks starting $2.80 when they were $2.05 last week against the Dockers. This will be a close match and the slight lean is towards the Swans after the Hawks travel back from WA.

Prediction
Sydney Swans by 7 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.00

North Melbourne VS Melbourne

Saturday 29 July – 1.45pm – BA
Line: North Melbourne +16.5, Melbourne -16.5

North Melbourne
The Roos have had the wood this decade over the Demons with 16 wins in a row including a 14 point win early in the season… since then the Demons have won 6 of their last 8 while the Roos beat the Blues and have gone on to lose 7 in a row. This is a team struggling for form and allowing far too many points to be scored. It really says something that the Dockers were able to travel to Etihad and get the win. This is a team in turmoil and they may even struggle to get a win by the end of the season.

Melbourne Demons
Won 6 of their last 8 and were a big winner over the Power last week. The team mates are returning to the Demons at the right time and this is a team that can beat any team on their day. Continue to win low scoring matches.

Summary
The Roos match up well against the Demons but I just can’t see them getting close after the displays over the past month while the Demons are sprinting home towards a top 4 position and need this win to be on their way to securing a spot.

The only negative for the Demons is this game is being played at Blundstone arena.

Prediction
Melbourne by 28 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Melbourne -16.5 points @ $1.92

Greater Western Sydney VS Fremantle Dockers

Saturday 29 July – 2.10pm – SPO
Line: Greater Western Sydney -34.5, Fremantle +34.5

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants have failed to get large scores on the board in recent weeks and kicked just 45 points last week against the Tigers. The Giants should get a number of key personal back that will see them step up again this week back at home at Spotless.

The Giants are going well enough ven though they have only won once in the past 5 rounds, they have been matching it with the very best and the Dockers are a step-down.

Fremantle Dockers
After some strong wins Rounds 7 to 9, the Dockers have been horrible since with only a win over the Roos on the board. They were taken care of significantly the past two weeks by the Eagles and Hawkes and if the Giants turn up today, it could be a messy margin in the end.

Summary
This is a statement game for the Giants to let the league know they are still a premiership favourite and I’m expecting a big margin win.

Prediction
Greater Western Sydney by 55 points

Betting – Confidence 95%
Greater Western Sydney -34.5 @ $1.92

Port Adelaide VS St Kilda

Saturday 29 July – 4.05pm – AO
Line: Port Adelaide -28.5, St Kilda +28.5

Port Adelaide Power
The Power have played some terrible matches away from home this year and that continued last week against the Demons. Back at home this week the Power have the team required to match any team on their day. The loss of Wingard will hurt the structure but they should be able to make for it against a team like the Saints.

St Kilda Saints
The Saints won four in a row before being smashed the past two matches by premiership contenders.

The Saints have to travel to Adelaide where they lost to the Crows by 57 points early in the year and face a Port Adelaide team looking to cement a top 6 position.

Summary
This is a Saints team with a near full team taking on a Port team with only 1 injury in total. The Saints haven’t been good enough the past two weeks and it’s hard to see them getting the job done away from home.

Prediction
Port Adelaide by 30 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10

Gold Coast VS Richmond

Saturday 29 July – 7.25pm – MS
Gold Coast +19.5, Richmond -19.5

Gold Coast Suns
The Suns have lost 3 in a row with 67 and 54 point losses along the way. Their record at home this season has been solid, but their recent record and the recent issues with Gazza have you questioning their resolve.

Richmond Tigers
The Tigers have continued their strong form winning 4 of the last 5 including a big win over the Giants last week by 19 points. Yes, they travel away today but this is a team that beat the Power in Adelaide away four games back and just continues to travel well. I’m shocked by the line here and I’m expecting the Tigers to dominate the match.

Summary
Very keen on a huge Tigers win today. They match up very well against the Giants and have a defensive masterclass down back to prevent the Suns from putting more than 60 points on the board.

Prediction
Richmond by 45 points

Betting – Confidence 95%
Richmond -19.5 line @ $1.92

Carlton vs Geelong

Saturday 29 July – 7.25pm – ES
Line: Carlton +28.5, Geelong -28.5

Carlton Blues
The Blues have lost 5 in a row after looking the good mid-year. They haven’t been defeated by a lot in any of their last 5 matches, but their young team seems to be getting tired and not sticking to the task having allowed 82 points or more the past five weeks.

Geelong Cats
The Cats come into this match with 3 wins 1 draw and 1 loss in the past 5 weeks with the loss coming last week away when the team just didn’t turn up early. Returning back to Melbourne, the Cats have always struggled in the past at times against the Blues, but if they are to be serious contenders this year, they need to turn up and convert goals while playing Hawkins back into form with a big win on the board.

Summary
The Blues haven’t lost by more than 35 points in the past 12 rounds, so I’m very keen to be on the Cats against the Blues and keen to be on the 1-39 margin as this Cats team still has a few injury issues and have only recorded one win over 40 points in the past 13 rounds.

Prediction
Geelong by 25 points

Betting – Confidence 95%
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.20

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon

Sunday 30 July – 1.10pm – ES
Western Bulldogs +1.5, Essendon -1.5

Western Bulldogs
The Dogs were expected to continue to play back into form last week against an under-manned Suns and that is just what they did. The Doggies are playing some okay football at the moment, but the Bombers are the real testing material today of just how well they are playing. 10 players on the injury list and not expected back today.

Essendon Bombers
Won three in a row against lesser opponents, but have been playing very well outside of the loss to the Lions. This is a team that has scored over 117 points the past three weeks and will be threatening the Doggies who have scored no more than 110 points all year.

Summary
I can’t see a complete blowout for either team here so instead of taking an h2h or line bet, I’d be suggesting the 1-39 here. I think the Bombers have the better fresh list right now and back at Etihad Stadium they are well suited against this Bulldogs outfit that has everything to prove. Expect a bag from Daniher.

Prediction
Essendon by 10 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.40

Collingwood vs Adelaide

Sunday 30 July – 3.20pm – MCG
Line: Collingwood +21.5, Adelaide -21.5

Collingwood Magpies
The Pies have won two in a row in some well underperforming teams in the Suns and Eagles. Back to the MCG today where the Pies have lost their last four matches, this is a true test today and they will need to turn up from the opening bounce to be a factor.

Adelaide Crows
The Crows have found their mojo late in the season and have recorded four wins in a row coming into this game over top teams in the Cats, Demons and Bulldogs. The Crows have played the MCG well both times this season and could be looking to put the nail in the coffin of this Pies teams finals chances.

Summary
The Pies will have to play at 100% to even be a chance in this match and based on previous rounds, that thought is a stretch. I’m keen to oppose and happy to be on the Crows, with a blowout a significant chance in this one.

Prediction
Adelaide by 38 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Adelaide -21.5 @ $1.93

West Coast v s Brisbane

Sunday 30 July – 4.40pm – DS
Line: West Coast -45.5, Brisbane +45.5

West Coast Eagles
The Eagles were horrible last week in allowing the Magpies a win, but they have been consistent back at home all year. I couldn’t be anywhere near the line, but I’m expecting they will get the job done.

Brisbane Lions
The Lions have looked horrible all year but coming to the end of the season they have put a few wins on the board over the lesser teams in the league. Have to travel west and take on an Eagles team that will be able to put a fair score on the board against them which is an issue.

Summary
Happy to tip the Eagles but couldn’t bet them at this line. Can see the Lions putting 80+ on the board like they have the past 8 weeks which means the Eagles will need to score 125+ to cover.

Prediction
West Coast by 22 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Brisbane +45.5 line @ $1.92

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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