Welcome to The Profits round 22 analysis with Drew and Euan. We are coming into the business end of the year and there are normally some juicy odds on offer with certain teams giving up and resting players. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet! Good luck and happy punting!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Richmond Tigers ($1.62) vs Essendon Bombers ($2.35) – MCG, Friday, August 24, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Essendon 19.14 (128) d Richmond 15.19 (109) round eight, 2012, at the MCG
Game preview: There is a lot hinging on this game with Essendon desperate for a win after dropping out of the top 8 last week and Richmond still fuming after the “Sandigatelands” affair in the match against Fremantle last week. It’s not a sure thing that the Bombers can actually win this game and the tip is against them.
Tigers by 22
Line: Tigers -9.5
St Kilda Saints ($1.02) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants ($15.00) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday August 25, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: First meeting
Game preview: The Saints needed a bit of a break after a torrid past few weeks playing a host of top sides. The infinitesimal possibility that they can make the finals will be helped along a little with them playing the Giants. There is no suggestion that you should tip the Giants regardless of your hopeless position in the tipping competition.
Saints by 100+
Line: Saints – 80.5
Port Adelaide Power ($2.20) vs Brisbane Lions ($1.68) – AAMI Stadium, Saturday August 25, 1.40pm
Recent clashes: Brisbane Lions 15.9 (99) defeated Port Adelaide 13.10 (88), round 15, 2011 at the Gabba
Game preview: Tipsters would have to think that the Lions are on a high after their great but unexpected win against the Crows last week and that the win in that game will give them enough momentum to carry them through winning this game against Port Adelaide. While the game is being played at AAMI that factor has not been enough to consider the Power against any of the teams above them. Should they win this match it would be a big upset.
Lions by 25
Line: Lions -6.5
Sydney Swans ($2.00) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.82) – SCG, Saturday August 25, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: Sydney Swans 16.10 (106) d Hawthorn 10.9 (69), round five, 2012 at Aurora Stadium
Game preview: 1st plays 2nd in what should be a great game of football. The Sydney Swans have been nothing short of a revelation this season and look like the team to beat. Top ladder position is available to the Hawks if they are good enough and apart from the same sort of hiccups that the Swans suffer in occasional games they look like premiership material. Because of slight inconsistencies in big games picking the winner of this match is pretty tough.
Swans by 10
Line: Swans +2.5
West Coast Eagles ($1.72) vs Collingwood Magpies ($2.15) – Patersons Stadium, Saturday August 25, 5.40pm
Recent clashes: Collingwood 12.13 (85) defeated West Coast 12.10 (82), round 13, 2012 at the MCG
Game preview: 5th plays 4th in what is expected to be another great game of football. The Eagles just need to beat the Pies and 4th spot is theirs. Collingwood has looked a bit fragile at times and travelling to Perth to play West Coast is a difficult task for every team. Both teams are getting back players from their injury list and also both teams suffer from ineffective forward lines in crunch games! Go figure. Collingwood likes the tough games and they travel well.
Magpies by 20
Line: Magpies +4.5
Gold Coast Suns ($15.00) vs Carlton Blues ($1.02) – Metricon Stadium, Saturday August 25, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 26.15 (171) d Gold Coast 7.10 (52), round 2, 2011, at the Gabba
Game preview: The Blues won by 95 points last week playing a team that spent significant time in the top 4. This week they play the Suns in a lay down misere result and it’s a matter of picking the margin. Carlton will keep pressure on Fremantle to sneak back into the top 8 after winning this game and they have a better percentage.
Blues by 55
Line: Suns +66.5
Geelong Cats ($1.01) vs Western Bulldogs ($17.00) – Simonds Stadium, Sunday August 26, 1.10pm
Recent clashes: Geelong 14.11 (95) d Western Bulldogs 11.9 (75), round 9, 2012 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: The Cats are playing well at the right time of the season and this game against the Western Bulldogs will help them keep that winning form going. The Bulldogs have been super disappointing this season and the best thing the management can do is blame the coach. Regardless of blame they won’t win this game.
Cats by 30
Line: Bulldogs +70.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.42) vs Fremantle Dockers ($2.90) – Etihad Stadium, Sunday August 19, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: North Melbourne 21.17 (143) d Fremantle 6.9 (45), round 22, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: Based on the positions of these teams this is an important game, more so for Fremantle than North although North is looking for a top 4 position if any of the teams above falter. Fremantle just has to win to stay in the 4 – simple arithmetic and strategy for them. A loss will cost them a finals place because of the win Carlton will have. North’s footy has been irresistible over the past 9 weeks and it’s hard to see them dropping this game against the Dockers. But for tipsters looking for an upset point this game is an opportunity.
Kangaroos by 32
Line: Kangaroos -17.5
Melbourne Demons ($6.75) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.11) – MCG, Sunday August 26, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: Melbourne 22.17 (149) d Adelaide 8.5 (53), round 7, 2011, at MCG
Game preview: The Demons go into this game with a win last week and Adelaide had an unexpected loss against Brisbane. The Crows were looking at a minor premiership before that result but that opportunity may have disappeared now. Still – Hawthorn wins, Sydney loses and Adelaide wins? It’s still a maybe.
You would have to think the Crows will be too good for Melbourne considering the stakes and win they should but it will be closer than you think based on ladder positions.
Crows by 42
Line: Crows -39.5
BEST BET: Kangaroos -17.5 at $1.91
Collingwood +4.5 at $1.91
Sydney -5.5 at $2.30
Brisbane -6.5 at $1.91
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet