AFL Round 22 – 2017

AFL 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 22 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season, but there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen week in week out in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.

Best Bets

(8 units): Sydney H2H @ $2.25
(6 units): Western Bulldogs H2H @ $1.85
(6 units): Essendon -20.5 line @ $1.92
(6 units): Richmond -16.5 line @ $1.92

(4 units): Geelong 1-39 margin @ $2.10

Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results

Adelaide VS Sydney

Friday 18 August – 7.50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -6.5, Sydney +6.5

Adelaide Crows
The Crows kicked into top gear the past two weeks with a dominant win over the Power by 84 points followed by a 43 point win last week over the Bombers. They have scored over 100 points in 5 of their last 6 matches. This is their first match against the Swans and they are expected to have a full strength team for the match.

Sydney Swans
The Swans have won 9 of the last 10 matches with a 6 point loss to the Hawks the only blemish in recent weeks. The Swans had failed to score higher than 88 points from Round 10 to 15 but since then have only scored less than 96 points once in 6 rounds. This is a team that is now playing with confidence and can put scores on the board required to win matches. Most importantly, since Round 7, no team has scored more than 85 points against them.

Summary
The Swans have the game plan to beat down this Adelaide team today.. They defend well and counter-attack effectively, just want is required to beat the Crows. Very keen on a Swans win today and want to be on H2H.

Prediction
Sydney by 14 points

Betting – Confidence 95%
Sydney H2H @ $2.25

Western Bulldogs VS Port Adelaide

Saturday 19 August – 1.45pm AEST – Eureka Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -1.5, Port Adelaide +1.5

Western Bulldogs
The Doggies were disappointing infront of goal last week and should have very much been in the game going into the 4th QTR. The result doesn’t reflect the closeness of the game and just how well the Doggies are going at the moment with a team that is missing a significant number of top players. Expect at least 3 of them to be available this week and for the Doggies to start firing on all cylinders heading towards the finals. The Dogs had 29 more Inside 50s than the Giants last week, amazing.

Port Adelaide
The Power have been flat track bullies all year and failed to travel away from home very well, so this is really the testing material. They were only average last week against the Pies in a game they really should have been putting away due to the pies injuries. They have no players on the injury list and have everything to play for here.

Summary
This game is being played at Ballarat and there is chance of medium showers throughout the day making this a much tougher and scrappier game than would be expected at Etihad Stadium.

Prediction
Western Bulldogs by 24 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Western Bulldogs H2H @ $1.85

Collingwood VS Geelong

Saturday 19 August – 2.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Collingwood +12.5, Geelong -12.5

Collingwood Magpies
The Pies have the list to be a top 8 team but have been ravaged by injuries and small loses all year. 4-5 players are a chance of returning to the team this week but even so, the Pies will be missing several key members of their team including Brody Grundy in the ruck.

Geelong Cats
This is a must win game for the Cats who are looking to secure a top 2 position by winning this week and beating the Giants next week.. they could even end up in top position if the Crows lose to the Swans on Friday night and the Eagles the following week. The Cats well and truly got the job done last week against the Tigers and receive Mitch Duncan back into the mix.

Summary
The Pies got the better of the Cats the last time these two teams met, but the Pies are without some of their most critical players today. You also have to think about just how much this game means for the Pies while it counts significantl to the Cats season with a few players looking to stand up and be counted towards a finals run in a team with a few spots on offer. The Pies have not lost by more than 37 points all year and I can’t see it happening here either.

Prediction
Geelong by 18 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.10

Greater Western Sydney VS West Coast

Saturday 19 August – 4.35pm AEST – Spotless Stadium
Line: Greater Western Sydney -27.5, West Coast +27.5

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants continue to roll towards the final and while it was a big win over the Bulldogs last week adn the Demons the week before, I’m not sure it was as impressive or easy as the scores suggest. At home today, the Giants have a huge advantage and are expected to roll over the top of a poor travelling opponent.

West Coast Eagles
The Eagles struggled to get a win over the Blues last week coming off a loss to the Saints. This is a team that hasn’t won many games away from home all year and really just have a horrible record away. They took the Giants to within 8 points over in the West back in Round 10 at the Giants worst but it’s hard to see them getting the big W here.

Summary
The Giants will prove too strong for this Eagles team to score against and the Giants should be winning in a tight contest.

Prediction
Giants by 24 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Giants 1-39 @ $2.25

Gold Coast VS Essendon

Saturday 19 August 7.25pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast +20.5, Essendon -20.5

Gold Coast
The Suns have been horrible the past two weeks and have 8-9 players all a chance to return to the team this week which would obviously make the world of difference. That being said, it’s doubtful Ablett will play and Lynch has joined Barlow, Day and Witts on the list of players done for the year. This is a team that has lost 8 of the last 9 and only beaten the Roos along the way… have not got within 23 points in the past 4 weeks.

Essendon Bombers
Won 4 of the last 6 with defeats to the Bulldogs and Crows no disgrace at all. This is a team that has been putting away the lower ranked teams in recent week and competing with the best of them. This is a must win game for the Bombers to be able to make it into the Finals and with their percentage where it is, they will be looking to put the largest win possible on the board which could elevate them inside the 8 before the end of the round.

Summary
This near full-strength Essendon team faces a Suns team that will most likely have several underdone players returning from injury with very little to play for, while the Dons are playing for the finals. Very keen on the Dons here against a Suns team that has failed to score more than 67 points in 4 of the last 6 matches, with the highest score being 88 in that time… while 4 of those teams broke 100 points and the lowest score against was 90.

Prediction
Essendon by 40 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Essendon -20.5 @ $1.92

Carlton VS Hawthorn

Saturday 19 August 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Carlton +21.5, Hawthorn -21.5

Carlton Blues
The Blues have looked much better the past two weeks after two really disappointing efforts heading towards the end of season. Back at Etihad Stadium where they beat the Giants early in the year, expect the Blues to try and put in a better effort than when they were defeated by 65 points by the Cats three weeks back.

Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks bounced back against the Roos last week with a competitive 27 point win in the end. The Hawks are going well enough finishing off their year strongly, and against this Blues line-up, match up very well around the grounds. The midfield match-up will be very interesting.

Summary
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Blues push the Hawks here and if betting the slight lean would be towards the Blues at the Line.

Prediction
Hawthorn by 10 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Carlton +21.5 @ $1.92

Melbourne VS Brisbane

Sunday 20 August – 1.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Melbourne -36.5, Brisbane +36.5

Melbourne Demons
The Demons kept their finals hopes alive last week with a convincing win over a less than impressive Saints team after two shaky losses in a row. Simply put, the Demons strong start with 6 goals 3 behinds to 1 goal 1 was the difference in the end for the four goal victory. The Demons continue to play good football even without winning the clerances or hitouts and allowing similar marks inside 50.

Brisbane Lions
The Lions are ending the season having taught this young team how to play as a team and having won 3 of their last 6 matches against the Bombers, Blues and Suns. Last week it was no surprise to see them win and win well over the Suns, but travelling to the MCG will be another tough task for this young team.

Summary
The Demons are expected to win this one, but it won’t be an open/closed case. The Lions are playing more than well enough to push the Demons today and this will be a great match to watch. Expect it to be closer than expected.

Prediction
Melbourne by 13 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Brisbane +36.5 line @ $1.92

St Kilda VS North Melbourne

Sunday 20 August – 3.20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda -17.5, North Melbourne +17.5

St Kilda Saints
Lost 4 of the last 5 and havn’t looked good enough to beat any team in recent weeks outside of the Eagles who always seem to fall short away from home. Back at Etihad and facing the Roos who they took to the sword by 17 points in Round 13, the Saints have a slightly better team than when they faced the Roos the last time.

North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Roos continue to lose matches with just 1 win from the past 10 (4 points) and were crushed the past two starts. They havn’t been terrible against teams the quality of the Saints in recent weeks.

Summary
There shouldn’t be a blowout from either team in this match and i’m expecting scores of around 70-90 points from either team. Slight lean towards the Saints.

Prediction
St Kilda by 5 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Either Team under 24.5 points @ $2.00

Fremantle VS Richmond

Sunday 20 August – 4.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle +16.5, Richmond -16.5

Fremantle Dockers
Comes off a 104 point loss to the Swans last week that really wasn’t a surprise to anyone. Have been blown out 3 times in the past 5 weeks including twice at home when they have failed to score higher than 48 points.

Richmond Tigers
The Tigers met a Geelong team they should have been able to simply put away last week and they failed to measure up on the big stage which is a worry heading towards this finals series. This team has been solid enough on the road in recent months and you have to believe the Tigers can more than handle this Dockers team and cover the line.

Summary
This is a Dockers team that fails to score points and this Tigers team has been able to keep teams to lower than 60 and 70 points for most the season. Expecting a solid win by the Tigers.

Prediction
Richmond by 30 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Richmond -16.5 line @ $1.92

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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