2011 AFL Round 23 Game Preview

Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.

Teams with the BYE
Carlton Blues

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Fremantle Dockers ($16.65) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.01)
Friday 6:40pm AWST (8:40pm AEST) – 26/08/2011
Ladder position: 10th vs 1st
Recent clashes: Collingwood have won 3 of the last 4 clashes

Stats
Collingwood averages 52 more kicks per match
Fremantle averages 8 more handballs per match
Collingwood averages 14 more marks per match
Collingwood averages 8 more scoring shots per match
Fremantle averages 5 more tackles per match
Fremantle averages 8 more hitouts per match
Collingwood averages 21.97 disposals per goal
Fremantle averages 29.21 disposals per goal

 

Team Changes
Fremantle: OUT: Grover, Mundy, Pavlich, Ballantne, McPhee, Silvagni, Pitt  IN: Duffield, Schammer, Bradley, Pearce, Faulks, Anthony, Lower
Collingwood: OUT: McCarthy, Keeffe, Ball, Buckley  IN: Davis, Johnson, Dawes, Krakouer

The Verdict
Fremantle have shut up shop for the year and put the majority of their good players with injury clouds over their heads out of the squad. Collingwood have this in the bag, the question is by how much.
Collingwood by 115 points

Betting Options
4 Units on Collingwood -44.5 at $1.26
1 Unit on Collingwood -66.5 at $1.74

Hawthorn Hawks ($1.10) vs Western Bulldogs ($7.05)
Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 27/08/2011
Ladder position: 3rd vs 11th
Recent clashes: The last 4 clathes has resulted in 2 wins to either team. Hawks won in round 10 by 29 points

Stats
Hawthorn averages 34 more kicks per game
Hawthorn averages 9 more handballs per game
Hawthorn averages 41 more marks per game
Hawthorn averages 4 more scoring shots per game
Western Bulldogs averages 2 more tackles per game
Hawthorn averages 5 more hitouts per game
Western Bulldogs averages 25.35 disposals per goal
Hawthorn averages 25.53 disposals per goal

 

Team Changes
Hawthorn: OUT: Chance Bateman   IN: Shane Savage
Western Bulldogs: OUT: Christian Howard, Nathan Djerrkura  IN: Josh Hill, Luke Dahlhaus

The Verdict
Hawthorn rule all of the statistics going into this game and Dogs are without Eade as coach and missing key players. Hawthorn will take care of the Doggies easily and it is all the matter of by how much once again.
Hawthorn by 44

Betting Options
5 Units on Hawthorn -16.5 at $1.27

 

Geelong Cats ($1.07) vs Sydney Swans ($8.65)
Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 27/08/2011

Ladder position: 2nd vs 7th
Recent clashes: Geelong have won the last 8 clashes including a 27 point win in round 4

Stats
Geelong averages 13 more kicks per game
Geelong averages 42 more handballs per game
Geelong averages 26 more marks per game
Geelong averages 5 more scoring shots per game
Sydney averages 10 more tackles per game
Sydney averages 5 more hitouts per game
Geelong averages 22.76 disposals per goal
Sydney averages 28.80 disposals per goal

 

Team Changes
Geelong: OUT: Corey, Mooney, Duncan, Vardy   IN: Mackie, Scarlett, Hawkins, West
Sydney: OUT: McVeigh, Jetta   IN: Meredith, Parker

The Verdict
Sydney as a club are in turmoil with the loss of McVeigh’s daughter this week. Have to feel their heads will not be on the field. Cats go in without a few key players but will still be able to handle the Swans down at Kardinia Park.
Geelong by 42

Betting Options
5 Units on Geelong -21.5 at $1.24

 

St Kilda Saints ($1.70) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($2.16)
Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 27/08/2011
Ladder position: 6th vs 9th
Recent clashes: Saints have won 3 of the last 4 clashes including a roun 15 win by 9 points

Stats
St Kilda averages 6 more kicks per game
St Kilda averages 12 more handballs per game
St Kilda averages 27 more marks per game
North Melbourne averages 6 more scoring shots per game
St Kilda averages 4 more tackles per game
North Melbourne averages 5 more hitouts per game
North Melbourne averages 25.09 disposals per goal
St Kilda averages 30.20 disposals per goal

 

Team Changes
St Kilda: OUT: Baker, Lynch IN: Koschitzke, Dawson
North Melbourne: OUT: No Change   IN: No Change

The Verdict
What will be the closest game of the week. This was a very close game in round 15 and Saints managed to hang on.. just.. due to some iffy decisions. You cannot think Kozzy and Dawson are fully over their Gastro and at 100% and you must question which players went in under the affects last week also. North have shown alot more than the Saints for us over the last month and with that in mind, they are our pick.
North Melbourne by 19

Betting Options
6 Units on North Melbourne +33.5 at $1.26
1 Units on North Melbourne -4.5 at $2.35

 

Brisbane Lions ($3.55) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.30)
Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 27/08/2011
Ladder position: 15th vs 4th
Recent clashes: Brisbane has won the last 4 clashes

Stats
West Coast averages 11 more kicks per game
West Coast averages 4 more handballs per game
West Coast averages 7 more marks per game
West Coast averages 6 more scoring shots per game
West Coast averages 3 more tackles per game
West Coast averages 7 more hitouts per game
West Coast averages 24.93 disposals per goal
Brisbane averages 28.24 disposals per goal

 

Team Changes
Brisbane: OUT: Clark  IN: Retzlaff
West Coast: OUT: Kerr   IN: McGinnity

The Verdict
Clark is a big out for Brisbane. West Coast are not the best at travelling and Brisbane always make the conditions of the ground suite with some nice watering tactics. We cannot see Brisbane getting blown away by the Eagles here but the Eagles should take care of  the Lions.
West Coast by 32

Betting Options
4 Units on West Coast -4.5 at $1.42
1 Units on West Coast -16.5 at $1.74

 

Adelaide Crows ($1.37) vs Richmond Tigers ($3.10)
Sunday 12:40pm ACST (1:10pm AEST) – 28/08/2011
Ladder position: 14th vs 12th
Recent clashes: Adelaide has won 3 of the last 4 clashes

Stats
Adelaide averages 2 more kicks per game
Adelaide averages 3 more handballs per game
Adelaide averages 8 more marks per game
Richmond averages 3 more scoring shots per game
Richmond averages 2 more tackles per game
Adelaide averages 11 more hitouts per game
Richmond averages 26.27 disposals per goal
Adelaide averages 31.26 disposals per goal

 

Team Changes
Adelaide: OUT: No Change   IN: Maric, Martin, Henderson
Richmond: OUT: No Change  IN: White, Nason, O’Reilly

The Verdict
The stats are suggesting Richmond will win this game. They were lucky to hold on last week against the Demons while the Crows took care of Gold Coast. This will be a tight game but with Richmond’s away record this year, we have to back Adelaide to get over the line.
Adelaide by 10 points

Betting Options
5 Units on Richmond +46.5 at $1.24

 

Melbourne Demons ($1.09) vs Gold Coast Suns ($7.50)
Sunday 2:10pm AEST – 28/08/2011
Ladder position: 13th vs 16th
Recent clashes: Melbourne won the first meeting this year by 90 points

Stats
Melbourne averages 14 more kicks per game
Both teams average 157 hanballs per game
Melbourne averages 13 more marks per game
Melbourne averages 4 more scoring shots per game
Melbourne averages 8 more tackles per game
Melbourne averages 14 more hitouts per game
Melbourne averages 27.97 disposals per goal
Gold Coast averages 36.34 disposal per goal

 

Team Changes
Melbourne: OUT: Davey, Sylvia, Petterd  IN: McNamara, Jetta, Tapscott, Fitzpatrick, Mcdonald, Nicholson
Gold Coast: OUT: Fraser, Daye, May, Tippett  IN: Smith, Toy, Matera, Hutchins, Iles, Caddy, Gilbee

The Verdict
Davey, Sylvia and Petterd are all big outs for the Demons in this game. On paper, Melbourne have this easy.. but it won’t be a blow out by 90 points like eariler in the year. Melbourne will get over the line in this one.
Melbourne by 33 points

Betting Options
Easier Games to touch. Skip this.

 

Essendon Bombers ($1.01) vs Port Adelaide Power ($16.65)
Sunday 4:40pm AEST – 28/08/2011

Ladder position: 8th vs 17th
Recent clashes: Port Adelaide has won the last 6 clashes

Stats
Essendon averages 13 more kicks per game
Essendon averages 11 more handballs per game
Essendon averages 4 more marks per game
Essendon averages 7 more scoring shots per game
Essendon averages 7 more tackles per game
Essendon averages 10 more hitouts per game
Essendon averages 24.39 disposals per goal
Port Adelaide averages 30.55 disposals per goal

 

Team Changes
Essendon: OUT: Hocking, Crameri   IN: Dyson, Pears, Hooker, Hurley, Colyer
Port Adelaide: OUT: Hitchcock, Jacobs  IN: Ebert, Broadbent, Davenport, Young, O’Shea

The Verdict
Essendon are taking an undermanned team to this must win game to keep their finals hopes alive. We cannot see Port getting over the line but we also cannot see Essendon blowing Port away like the Line is suggesting.
Essendon by 43

Betting Options
5 units on Port Adelaide +96.5 at $1.26

Best Bets of the Round
In order of preference
North Melbourne +33.5 at $1.26
Hawthorn -16.5 at $1.27
Collingwood -44.5 at $1.26
West Coast -4.5 at $1.42
Geelong -21.5 at $1.24

Please note
Majority of  Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line     and   supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on     Centrebet.  Better odds can be achieved by shopping around.  Sportsbet     pay   significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line   margins.  Sportsbet   only   give better FULL line prices and better   deals on first goal   kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not       recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet       listed above. Bet at your own risk.

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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