AFL Round 5 – 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 5 2017 Preview. We were very keen coming into Round 4 putting up the largest number of bets we ever have and it paid off going 5/5 on our Best Bets. It didn’t stop there though with 9 tips correct and going 9/9 on all our AFL bets landing a lazy $1080 9-fold multi for anyone that took it. That effort will be hard to repeat this week or this year, but there are four confident games on the cards that we are keen to focus on. Good luck and happy tipping.

Best Bet (4 units): Greater Western Sydney -13.5 Line @ $1.92
Next Best Bet (2 units): Gold Coast v Adelaide – Total Game Points Over 191.5 @ $1.90
Other Bets (1 unit): Collingwood -4.5 Line @ $1.92
Other Bets (1 unit): Richmond -5.5 Line @ $1.92

Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results

Port Adelaide ($1.14) VS Carlton ($7.00)

Friday 21 April – 7.50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -37.5, Carlton +37.5

Port Adelaide
The Power have lost two in a row and will be eager to get a win on the board today. They have been playing well and had their chances in both those matches but have failed in at least one quarter to maintain control and lost the game when it was up for grabs. The figures against the Giants from last week are a little skewed due to the last quarter, but they tell us a strong tale of the match. The Power were dominated in the Hitouts 54 to 31, they had just 51 Inside 50s to 63 for 26 scoring shots to 32, lost the clearances 30 to 49 and had just 10 marks inside 50 to 15. To top it off, they put on just 58 tackles to 77. The Giants were better all over the ground on the stats and it showed in the end result. It didn’t help that the Power were poor infront of goal when they needed to convert either.

This is a power team that looks to have the ability of a top 3-6 team and this is their chance to show us that they have the ability to put away a team like Carlton

Carlton
The Blues recorded a wet win over the Bombers and then they were suddenly over-valued by the market last week against the Suns. They stuck in it solidly for 3 QTRs before the class of the veteran’s in the Suns got the better of them. This is a Blues team that has failed to get past 89 points on the board all year so it will be interesting to see how they match the Shoot-Out style of this power line-up at home.

The Blues competed well around the grounds last week only losing the CLearances 28 to 39 against the Suns.. but they allowed a massive 18 to 13 Marks Inside 50 which can’t be allowed to happen in this match. The Blues really did try around the grounds putting on 82 tackles to the 44 of the Suns. The Suns dominated the ruck with 40 to 25 hitouts. The Blues only allowed 46 inside 50s to 44 and scoring shots were fairly even, but it was simply the accuracy of the Suns that got them the dominating win.

Don’t expect the Blues to roll over and hand up this game on a silver platter. The Blues have lost all of their first four quarters this year and the Power have come out of the blocks looking to punish their opposition in each first quarter, so that looks the play for this match.

Predicted Result
Port Adelaide by 32 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Port Adelaide Quarter Time Line -8.5 @ $1.89

Western Bulldogs ($1.09) VS Brisbane ($9.00)

Saturday 22 April – 1.45pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -42.5, Brisbane +42.5

Western Bulldogs
Won 3 from 4 and hasn’t been convincing as we have been saying all year. The Roos had a shot pretty much on the siren to beat the Dogs and missed.

The Dogs really didn’t hit many strong KPIs last week. They lost the clearances 41 to 34… Marks Inside 50 14 to 9 and Hitouts 46 to 39. Tackles were even 81 to 75. The one big win the Bulldogs had was Inside 50s 61 to 45, but that is where I see the big issue.. they had 16 more inside 50s for 6 less Marks inside 50.

The Doggies will be able to regroup this week and continue to work on their game against a vulnerable lions line-up.

Brisbane
The Lion have won just one from four and they don’t look like winning a second match any time soon. They were really lucky to get the first win in Round 1 and the KPIs they are hitting suggest they are a long way off.

Against a Tigers team we don’t fully rate as a top tier team, they lost by 52 points while winning the clearances by 43 to 30 and Hitouts 53 to 20. They managed just 9 Marks inside 50 to 16, 51 Inside 50s to 60.. but just 17 shots on goal to 34. They even out-tackled the Tigers.. but they were just clearly poor with the ball all around the ground and we can’t see their game improving enough to match the Dogs.

Being played at Etihad, there is no excuse for straight shooting and i’m expecting the Bulldogs to be putting 120+ points on the board. Brisbane will give them more than enough chance to score 5 goals a quarter.

Predicted Result
Western Bulldogs by 45 points.

Betting – Confidence 70%
Western Bulldogs – Total Points Over 111.5 @ $1.89

Gold Coast ($4.50) VS Adelaide ($1.25)

Saturday 22 April – 4.35pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast +27.5, Adelaide -27.5

Gold Coast
The Suns started the year poorly against the Lions when they should have with ease. They were smashed by the Giants before beating the Hawks and Blues convincingly. They have proven to be around a 8-10 ranked team so far for mine and this is the testing material against a 1-2 ranked team in the Crows.

The Suns last week hit a number of positive KPIs but didn’t exactly blow me away on the stats board. They won the clearances 39-28 and had 18 to 13 marks inside 50. They also won the Hitouts 40 to 25 but only put on 44 tackles to 82. Disappointingly they had 46 inside 50s to 44 and the real difference was the conversion infront of goal.

Adelaide
The Crows have won four in a row and travel to Metricon to try and make it a fifth. No team has gotten within 17 points of this crows outfit that have scored over 100 points every game this season and kept all their opposition to under 91 points.

It was no surprise to see Adelaide smash the Bombers last week. They drew the clearances but had a massive 19 marks inside 50 to just 14. They shot straight at 72.7% and had 62 inside 50s to 47 with 33 scoring shots to 23.

The Crows showed against the Hawks they are vulnerable for the first two quarters, but this is a well drilled team and they find a way no matter what.

Predicted Result
Adelaide by 38 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Total Game Points Over 191.5 @ $1.90

Sydney ($2.80) VS GWS ($1.48)

Saturday 22 April – 7.25pm AEST – SCG
Line: Sydney +13.5, Greater Western Sydney -13.5

Sydney
The Swans have lost 4 in a row and they face a tough task again in the Giants. They have lost 3 of those 4 matches by more than 23 points while their only close loss was by 1 point to the Pies. They have failed to score more than 87 points all season and allowed 110+ points against twice.

The Swans were disgustingly bad on the weekend over in the West against the Eagles. They managed just 8 Marks inside 50 (but did only allow 7 against). Yes, they won the Clearances 43 to 34, but thye lost the Hitouts 58 to 33. They put on a similar number of tackles but where it mattered all night is the quality of possession and where it played out with the Eagles having 54 to 41 inside 50s with 26 to 15 scoring shots. The Swans shooting at 66% flattered the score board.

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants have been the ultimate professionals this year after getting a reality check in round one by the Crows. Since then they have beaten the Suns by 102, Roos by 42 and the testing material in the Power by 31.

The Giants beat the Power all over the field on the weekend with 49 to 30 clearances, 15 to 10 Marks Inside 50, 54 to 31 Hitouts, 77 to 58 tackles and 63 to 51 Inside 50s.

It’s hard to see this Sydney line-up having the will around the ground to cover against the Giants.

Predicted Result
Greater Western Sydney by 31 points

Betting – Confidence 95%
Greater Western Sydney Line -13.5 @ $1.92

Fremantle ($1.53) VS North Melbourne ($2.66)

Saturday 22 April – 7.40PM AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle -12.5, North Melbourne +12.5

Fremantle
A slow start to the season has quickly turned around with wins over the Dogs and Demons. They return home for three matches at home in a row where they are hoping to come out of it with at least two wins on the board.

The Roos look the ideal target to take down today. The Dockers were good against the Demons, but it was ultimately straight kicking that got the job done. They had the advantage of no Gawn to ruck against Sandilands and they were able to get on top around the ball.

North Melbourne
The Roos come into this match 0 wins 4 loses for the season with bad loses over the Eagles and Giants on the record, while having lost to the Cats and Bulldogs by 1 and 3 points respectable. Last week, they had a shot just before the siren tow in and missed it.

Going down forward, the Roos looked deadly with 14 Marks Inside 50 from just 45 Inside 50s while allowing the Doggies 51 Inside 50s but just the 10 Marks inside 50. Roos won the Clearances and Hitouts and put on enough tackles. Straighter shooting will be required today.

This looks one of the hardest games of the round to predict and the only way I can bet into this match is on the points unders.

Predicted Result
Fremantle by 5 points.

Betting – Confidence 75%
Total Games Points Under 183.5 @ $1.90

St Kilda ($2.85) VS Geelong ($1.50)

Sunday 23 April – 3.20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda +15.5, Geelong -15.5

St Kilda
The Saints opened favourites last week but were heavy drifters. They got away to a slow start but lucky for them the Pies shot poorly on goal once again and allowed them to stay without grasp. The Pies failed to shoot straight for the full game and the Saints were not much better. The Saints had a massive 18 marks into 50 yet just 9 goals for the match. The Pies smashed the Saints in the Clearances and Hitouts.

Jack Steven and David Armitage are both chances to come back into the team this week and will be needed against this rampaging Cats team.

Geelong
The Cats come into this match with 4 wins in a row. Three of those wins were by large margins of 29, 42 and 86 while the win over the 0-4 Kangaroos was a close 1 point win. The Cats have scored 112, 115, 126 and 134 points this season and you can expect this to be a high scoring match again.

The Cats hit every required KPI last week and only poor accuracy infront of goal early in the match prevented them from a larger blowout.

Predicted Result
Geelong by 28 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Geelong 1-39 Margin @ $2.20

Hawthorn ($3.20) VS West Coast ($1.40)

Sunday 23 April – 4.40pm AEST – MCG
Line: Hawthorn +18.5, West Coast -18.5

Hawthorn
The Hawks have been horrible three of the four games this year and they were destroyed all over the park last week against the Cats.

If you take the Hawks performances against the Crows at this ground in R2 as the benchmark, you can find a way for them to measure up and match the Eagles.

West Coast
Won 3 of the first four matches this year and surprise surprise the loss was at the MCG. The Eagles have always struggled on this ground but I thought they were a little stiff to come up against the Tigers at full fitness with rain around.

This Eagles team are ready to fire and will be hard to keep under 100 points based on their Inside 50 and Marks Inside 50 results from the last few rounds.

Predicted Result
West Coast by 15 points

Betting – Confidence 65%
West Coast 1-39 Margin @ $2.20

Richmond ($1.74) VS Melbourne ($2.25)

Monday 24 April – 7.25pm AEST – MCG
Line: Richmond -5.5, Melbourne +5.5

Richmond
The Tigers are undefeated after ‘hanging in’ a few games this year to come over the top. They won with ease last week over the Lions and have beaten the Eagles and Magpies along the way.

We really don’t have to go far into the KPIs from last week with the Tigers smashing the Lions 16-9 Marks Inside 50… yes they lost the clearances but they didn’t have to try for it on the night losing the Hitouts as well but simply dominating the match.

The Tigers are due a loss, but it’s not today.

Melbourne
The Demons will enjoy the return of Hogan today but still have a week until Lewis comes back into the team and will be without superstar Gawn for at least 12 weeks.

The Demons put in a valid effort last week but were fairly beaten on the day by the Dockers in a tough affair. The Demons matched the Dockers in the Clearances and Tackles and had 13 to 10 marks inside 50, but they were dominated in the ruck as expected and that will be a weakness again this week. They also allowed 58 to 50 Inside 50s but still had 3 more shots on goal for the match. In the end, straighter shooting from the Dockers got them home.

The Demons have lost two in a row and they have something to prove today against this 4-0 Tigers team.

Predicted Result
Richmond by 22 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
Richmond -5.5 Line @ $1.92

Essendon ($2.20) vs Collingwood ($1.78)

Tuesday 25 April – 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Essendon +4.5, Collingwood -4.5

Essendon
The Bombers ‘surprised’ a few with a strong start to the year, but they beat two of the most under-performing teams of the year in the Hawks and the Lions team that should struggle to win another game all year. They were fairly beaten by the Blues and then smashed by the Crows.

Last week the stats suggest they should have been closer with even clearances, 14 to 19 marks inside 50, 48 to 60 tackles, 45 to 39 hitouts and 47 to 63 inside 50s being the big issue area. The Crows just got the ball in the right areas and converted well.

This is a Bombers team that isn’t playing badly, but just isn’t up to being a top 8 team this season on current form.

Collingwood
The Pies have been playing well this season without winning. They were only able to get a win over the winless Swans.

The Pies have been struggling to get points on the board with 86 their highest score all year and only managing 55 the previous week.

The Pies hit the strong KPIs against last week winning the clearances 40 to 22 and Hitouts 39 to 27, but they failed to match the intensity of the Saints with just 56 to 87 tackles. They also failed to stop the Saints rebounding into 50 and allowed the Saints 18 marks inside 50 to just 12. The Saints also won all the contested Marks with 19 to 8.

If the Pies can convert better against this Essendon line-up, they should be able to get the win.

Predicted Result
Collingwood by 22 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
Collingwood -4.5 Line @ $1.92

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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