Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 6 2017 Preview. The strong tipping and betting streak continued last week with our Best Bets going 3/4 (two most confident bets won) and profit on the suggested bets throughout the round. There was certainly some luck that went our way at critical stages but also against in other matches. This looks to be one of the tougher rounds of the year so far with many of the lines right on the money so we have had to look around the lines in some games to find the value. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bet (4 units): Geelong -24.5 line @ $1.92
Next Best Bet (3 units): Melbourne +0.5 line @ $1.92
Other Bets (2 units): Greater Western Sydney 1-39 margin @ $2.10
Other Bets (2 units): Port Adelaide Over 111.5 points @ $1.86
Other Bets (1 unit): Sydney QTR Time Total Points Over 23.5 Points @ $1.88
Greater Western Sydney ($1.32) VS Western Bulldogs ($3.42)
Friday 28 April – 7.50pm AEST – Manuka Oval
Line: Greater Western Sydney -20.5, Western Bulldogs +20.5
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants have won four in a row by 31 or above points. They gave the Swans a 24 point head-start on Saturday after a very slow start but still managed to dominate the rest of the game and win by 42 points in the end. It was a coming of age performance. The Giants dominated the Inside 50s, Hitouts and Clearances for the match. They have proven to be the real deal and will be hard for any team to get a win against this year.
The Dogs recorded a 32 point win over the Lions on Saturday, but it wasn’t all smooth sailing for this Dogs team that failed against the Dockers three backs back, just got over the line against the Roos and were down by 32 points at half-time against the Lions.
This is a Premiership Bulldogs team that is only playing at 85% of what we can expect to see later in the season.
Greater Western Sydney by 28 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10
Hawthorn ($1.81) Vs St Kilda ($2.00)
Saturday 29 April – 1.45pm AEST – UTAS Stadium
Line: Hawthorn -2.5, St Kilda +2.5
The ‘real’ hawks stood up last week at the MCG to record their first victory of the season with a dominant win over the Eagles. It was a real masterclass start to finish with Tom Mitchell standing out on the day… but the whole team really stood up which is what counted.
Last week the Hawks had 30 shots on goal to 20 while only having an extra 7 inside 50s on the day. This showed just how poor the Eagles defense was and how quickly it was destroyed at the MCG again. The Hawks won the Hitouts but slightly lost the clearances and also Marks Inside 50. They also allowed the Eagles their chances with the Eagles winning the contested marks.
The Saints came into this season with big shoes to fill and after a 2-3 start to the season they have failed to live up the expectations. Having only breached the 100 mark once this season, scoring has clearly been an issue with 3 teams scoring 116 or above against them this year. One of their very few games away from the comforts of Etihad Stadium this season and they will certainly be tested down in Tasmania.
They stuck in the game against the Cats on the weekend for a long way having the lead at half-time and 3 QTR time before being blown out late. The Saints hit all the reasonable KPIs matching it in the Hitouts, Inside 50s, Clearances and Marks Inside 50 until 3 QTR time and it was their final QTR that let them down. The Saints have a lot to prove today against a Hawks outfit that found some form last week against an Eagles team that was extremly poor on the road.
St Kilda by 10 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.63
Carlton ($6.70) vs Sydney ($1.11)
Saturday 29 April – 2.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Carlton +37.5, Sydney -37.5
The Blues scored a solid wet track win over the Bombers in Round 3 but have been fairly defeated since by the Suns and Power.
Carlton were comprehensively destroyed last week by the Power who had 71 inside 50s to 38 with 37 shots on goal to 17. The Power won the Hitouts convincingly with Kruiser out of the team and put on 79 tackles to 49. The Power also won the Clearances 41 to 35 and had a big 15 marks inside 50 to just 6 for the Blues.
The Swans come into this match as heavy favourites having lost five matches in a row. You have to be concerned about the Swans loss to the Eagles two weeks back and even the loss to the Pies the week prior. The Swans seem to have a solid forwardline structure yet they have only scored 87 points as their highest score of the year.
The Swans last week got a strong start on the Giants with 4 goals ijn 3 minutes and then failed to shoot another goal for the half. They shot 4 in the 3rd qtr then just 1 in the final qtr. This was an effort of a team that still has meany structural problems and players that are clearly coming back from injury and need game time.
There were certainly some positives to the Swans performance with 10 Marks Inside 50 from 41 Inside 50s so as long as they get it in there, they are getting the right ball in.
Sydney Swans by 35 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Sydney QTR Time Total Points Over 23.5 Points @ $1.88
Brisbane ($4.75) vs Port Adelaide ($1.19)
Saturday 29 April – 4.35pm AEST – Gabba
Line: Brisbane +33.5, Port Adelaide -33.5
The Lions certainly seem to find more of a heart at home than at other stadiums, but even this year, they havn’t been convincing at the Gabba with a 32 point loss to the Dogs and 27 point loss to the Bombers.
The Lions were lucky to only lose by 32 points last week against the Bulldogs who had 62 to 44 inside 50s with 37 shots on goal to 20. The Lions shot at 70% while the Dogs shot at 45%. The Lions allowed 21 marks inside 50 to 8 and that continues to be an issue for this team.
The Power have three wins for the season with a 28 point win over the Swans, 89 points win over the Dockers and 90 point win over the Blues.
The Power come off a game with 71 Inside 50s and 21 Marks Inside 50. It’s clear that the Power are there very best at home, but their away record is sufficient. I don’t need to look much further into this game to know that the Power are an attacking jugganaut with a strong defensive line-up that doesn’t allow high scores against.
Port Adelaide by 50 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Port Adelaide Over 111.5 points @ $1.86
West Coast ($1.45) vs Fremantle ($2.77)
Saturday 29 April – 7.10pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast -16.5, Fremantle +16.5
The Eagles started the season the right way smashing the Roos at Etihad before seeing off the Saints in a tough match at Domain Stadium.. They then lost to the Tigers and hawks at the MCG with a win over the winless Swans at Domain in the middle.
I’m not convinced their form lines are that of a clear top 8 team and we saw that on the weekend with the thrashing they were served up at the hands of the Hawks. If the Dockers can get off to a strong start I can’t see the Eagles battling back into this mentally.
After a very slow start to the season, the Dockers have kicked into over-drive with three wins in a row over decent teams in the Doggies, Demons and Kangaroos. They were a little lucky to get over the line on the weekend after being heavily down at half-time, but it showed the toughness of this team. As expected, Freo didn’t allow or have many inside 50s and it was a low scoring game on the weekend and we can expect them to attempt it again.
Freo will need to continue developing their dominance in the ruck and around the ball in the clearances to standup to this Eagles team that was dominated in those areas at the MCG last week.
Fremantle by 5 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Either Team Under 24.5 Points @ $1.91
North Melbourne ($1.47) VS Gold Coast ($2.68)
Saturday 29 April – 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: North Melbourne -13.5, Gold Coast +13.5
The Kangaroos have gone close against some very good teams this season and had their third loss by under a goal for the season over the weekend.
The Roos went into half-time leading by 23 points against Fremantle on the weekend but kicked just 3-3 for the second half and failed to get the win. As expected the KPIs show it was a defensive masterclass from Freo with just 44 inside 50s to 48 (Freo) and 17 shots on goal to Freos 22. The Dockers dominated the Hitouts and in turn won the clearances. Marks Inside 50 were 11 a piece and North put on more tackles throughout the match.
The Roos continue to be a frustrating team to rate and they clearly are missing Jarrad Watie’s presence up forward.
In every match this season, the Roos have competed well out to Half-Time… it’s the second half where they are failing to see out the match.
The Suns have won 2 from 5 this season and should be 3-5 after a terrible loss in Round 1. The Suns at their best are good enough to defeat the lower down the laddar teams with wins over the Hawks and Blues… but their worst is simply an opening for a smashing with a 102 point loss to the Giants and 67 point loss to the Crows.
Looking at the Suns KPIs from the weekends loss to the Crows they actually won the clearances by 1 and had 12 to 17 marks inside 50, not a huge beating. They even went 34-34 on the Hitouts. They also won the marks 104-80… but put on just 49 tackles to 63. The stats are fine but the tactics are far short of good from this team when you have the Crows taking 38 scoring shots from 62 inside 50s while the Suns had 21 shots from 49 inside 50s.
This is a Suns team that will turn up and put on a good game on Saturday, but they will need to bring their best to get the win. The Suns have been very hit and miss. If they are leading at half-time, expect them to continue on and see out the match.
North Melbourne by 3 points
Betting – Confidence – 60%
North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.30
Essendon ($1.88) VS Melbourne ($1.92)
Sunday 30 April – 1.10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Essendon -0.5, Melbourne +0.5
The Bombers got the win over the Pies on ANZAC Day but did they deserve it on the KPIs? The Clearances were even on the day, similar Marks Inside 50 numbers, Tackle numbers, Marks and even Hitouts were close (Pies did win them). The Pies had a massive 65 Inside 50s to the Bombers 43 yet the Pies only had 2 more scoring shots. As they have all year, the Pies shot poorly giving the win to the Bombers. Most importantly, the Bombers were setup to run and rebound off poor entries inside 50 and made the most of them.
This is a Bombers side that I believe is over-performing and will be going up and down all season in terms of performances. I don’t have them on the same level as Melbourne and I’m shocked they are going to start favourites.
The Demons started the season strongly with two wins in a row over the Saints and Blues before three fairly close loses to the Cats, Dockers and Tigers. Since R2 they have lost both their ruck options to injury but have regained Lewis and Hogan back into the mix.
The Demons really should have beaten the Tigers last week, but they were down 2 men for most of the match. Up until that point they were smashing it in all of the KPIs apart from Marks Inside 50 which they only had 4 for the match. This Demons team is the real deal and will be pushing for a Top 8 position this year.
Melbourne by 25 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Melbourne +0.5 @ $1.92
Geelong ($1.19) VS Collingwood ($4.70)
Sunday 30 April – 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Geelong -24.5, Collingwood +24.5
The Cats have won all five matches this season and scored over 112 in every match. They struggled against the Demons and Roos but were stronger the past two matches taking care of the Hawks and Saints in strong style. Their win over the Saints last week was a top class effort with 65 inside 50s to just 52.. 31 scoring shots to 23… 82 tackles to 67… 43 to 30 hitouts, 37 to 32 clearances and 14 to 10 marks inside 50. They hit all the KPIs and kicked well infront of goal. They continue to impress and are clearly a top 3 team in the league on current form with little to no injuries to deal with.
A disgusting performance from this talented side on ANZAC day. They sit 1-4 on the laddar having kicked 52 goals 71 behinds this year and having lost all their matches by under 19 points. The Pies have failed to kick more than 86 points this year which already makes it tough. This is a team that that hits all the KPIs when it counts but their Inside 50 efforts are just terrible. Against this Cats team, they will be able to exploit it with ease and this looks like a punishment with the short backup.
Geelong by 58 points
Betting – Confidence 95%
Geelong -24.5 line @ $1.92
Adelaide ($1.18) VS Richmond ($4.90)
Sunday 30 April – 4.10pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -30.5, Richmond +30.5
The form team of the competition, the Crows have scored 153, 153 and 147 points against teams this year while thier lower scores have been 100 and 113. They smashed the Suns all over the park last week coming off a demolition job of the Bombers.
The Crows have kept teams to below 92 points all season and based on the Tigers efforts against Melbourne, I’m expecting the Tigers to struggle to get more than 90 on the board.
The Tigers come into this game as 5-0 undefeated this season but rightfully are -30.5 underdogs. They were lucky on the weekend that the Demons had 2 injuries during the match which allows the Tigers to finish over the top late. This is a Tigers team that hasn’t looked great in the first halves of games and finishes off strongly.
The Tigers will need to get a very strong start to the match to be in this match when it counts, and I just can’t see that happening based on the past performances of the Tigers and Crows.
Adelaide by 40 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Adelaide Team Total Over 111.5 points @ $1.89