Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 7 2017 Preview. We were on the right side of a few good results last week and got more of the 50/50 games right than we got wrong with the Demons, Giants and Saints all getting the chocolates, but we got the Pies vs Cats game well wrong as our Best Bet. Even so, we ended the round up 1.68 units and progress to 18.84 units up for the season. We look to continue betting strongly into this round with five bets on the cards, with three of them targeting top four teams at the line. Good luck and happy tipping.
(3 units): Adelaide -37.5 points line @ $1.92
(3 units): Port Adelaide -19.5 points @ $1.92
(3 units): Geelong -20.5 points line @ $1.92
(2 units): Fremantle -9.5 points line @ $1.92
(1 unit): Greater Western Sydney 1-39 Margin @ $2.25
St Kilda ($2.90) VS Greater Western Sydney ($1.48)
Friday May 5 – 7.50pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Saints +14.5, Giants -14.5
The Saints have found their mojo and come into this match off winning three of their last four. They traveled to Tasmania last week strangely as underdogs and put the Hawks to the sword. It was a devastating result with 35 to 15 scoring shots in the Saints favour (they lost frees 17-10). The Saints won the Hitouts 38-33, put on 61 to 44 tackles, won clearances 35 to 29 and had a massive 15 marks inside 50 to just 8. Most importantly, the Saints dominated the ball all game with a 468 to 385 disposal count.
This is a Saints team on the up with just 3 injuries on the list, and only one of them would be guaranteed a start in the best 22. They are ready to prove themselves against a injury ravaged.
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants were tested to their limits on Friday night in Canberra by the Western Bulldogs and it was straighter kicking in the end that got them over the line.
The Giants dominated the Hitouts 62-25 and won the Clearances 40-38 and Marks Inside 50 10-8 but that’s about it. They Had 8 less shots on goal and 13 less inside 50s which is a big worry. They did tackle well with 74-72 in the match… but overall it did feel like the only reason they actually got the win was because of the Bulldogs poor kicking.
This is a Giants team that is ravaged by injuries and that was evident with the performance last week. Missing this week will potentially be Whitfield, Buntine, Deledio, Davis, Griffen, Coniglio and Mzungu, all straight starts in any other team with most of them being top 10 picks.
The Giants are good enough and should still have the ability to see off this Saints side that is ready for a fight, but it will be closer than most expect.
Greater Western Sydney by 10 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 Margin @ $2.25
North Melbourne ($6.50) VS Adelaide ($1.14)
Saturday May 6 – 1.45pm AEST – Bludstone Arena
Line: North Melbourne +37.5, Adelaide -37.5
The Roos finally got their season back on track with a win over the Suns at Etihad Stadium on Saturday. It was an expected win against a bottom 6 team and the Roos did what needed to be done. The Stats show they struggled in the clearances which the Suns won in the end and they only won the Inside 50 marks 15-12. Personally, I wasn’t impressed one bit with the win and based on previous results I can see the Crows kicking away from them late in the match.
The Crows have been the form side of the season and that looks set to continue here against a 1-5 Roos team. 4 of the 6 wins this season have been by 56 points or more with a close match against top 4 team Port Adelaide and a below average match against the Hawks the only blunders on this dominating streak.
The Crows matched up against the 5-0 Tigers team last week and it was a very easy kill in the end. The Crows dominated the ruck 63-41 hitouts, won the clearances 46-38, had a massive 21 to 9 marks inside 50 and 35 shots on goal to 14. The only negative was they allowed 50 inside 50s to their 60.. but clearly that showed just how well they were defending inside 50. Furthermore, they had 70 tackles to 82, but that’s not a surprise when you win the disposals 461 to 334!
The Crows are on fire and it’s hard to see the Roos getting close to the Crows, even in Tasmania.
Adelaide by 57 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Adelaide -37.5 points line @ $1.92
Collingwood ($1.38) vs Carlton ($3.60)
Saturday May 6 – 2.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Collingwood -19.5, Carlton +19.5
The REAL Collingwood stood up on the weekend in a 29 point win over a less than convincing Geelong team. The Pies have constantly looked good on the figures but just not been able to convert. They won the Inside 50s 59 to 49, Hitouts 42 to 30, Clearances 33 to 32 and Marks Inside 50 13 to 11.
The Pies looked like a complete team with a solid game plan on the board. Their top players in Adams and Pendlebury stood up and almost every other player in the team (apart from Cox) put in a solid showing on the day. A repeat of that performance would see the Pies see off the Blues today.
The Blues have two wins this season over the Swans and Bombers while they had some poor loses to the Demons and Suns with big loses to the Tigers and Power. This is an up and down team, but last week they had their best team on the park and showed they can see out 4 quarters and put on a real contest.
Straight shooting got them over the line against the Swans with the Swans having an extra scoring shot from 4 less inside 50s. Yes, the Blues won the Hitouts and frees and marks and it was fairly even on the Marks Inside 50 and clearances.
Collingwood by 30 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.10
Port Adelaide ($1.38) VS West Coast ($3.35)
Saturday May 6 – 4.35pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide -19.5, West Coast +19.5
The Power have won by 83 and 90 points in the last two weeks and are one of the top four form teams in the league. They had a tough draw prior to that facing the Crows and Giants and have gotten the closest to this Crows team than any other.
The Power had 67 inside 50s on the weekend against the Lions and a massive 22 marks inside 50.. and they didn’t even win the clearances. This is a top class tough battle hardy team and they look well placed here against the Eagles.
The Eagles were smashed by the Hawks two weeks ago and lost to the Tigers four matches back. The Hawks were horrible last week and the Tigers smashed by the top of the table Crows. In between games the Eagles have been average at best beating the Swans and then won against Freo on the weekend in a game where they smashed the first quarter against a team that didn’t turn up.
The Eagles are on the road here and the trends don’t bode well for them. They will need to turn up and bring their A game to match it with this Power team.
Port Adelaide by 44 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Port Adelaide -19.5 points @ $1.92
Gold Coast ($3.70) Vs Geelong ($1.33)
Saturday May 6 – 7.25pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast +20.5, Geelong -20.5
The Suns continue to ‘try’ against the better teams this year but haven’t been able to measure up. The Giants and Crows have both dismantled this Suns team and it’s the time for the Cats to stand up and show us what they are made of after that disgraceful performance last week against the Pies. The Suns come into this off a 45 disposal Gazza loss against the Kangaroos outfit that hadn’t put a win on the board all year.
I watched this game closely on Saturday night and it felt like the Suns were just hanging in there all match. The Stats show the Roos had the dominance with more inside 50s and scoring shots with equal frees to each team. The Suns only just won the hitouts and clearances but allowed too many marks inside 50 (15) and lost the contested marks badly.
The Cats performance on the weekend was nothing short of disgraceful. They were picked apart for four quarters by the Pies and didn’t switch up their game plan, allowing the Pies to chip kick with ease out of defense. The Pies had 13 marks inside 50 to the Cats 11 while clearance numbers were relatively even. The Pies won the hitouts as was expected but had 10 more inside 50s and 9 more shots on goal than the Cats who looked lost up forward without Menzel.
I believe we just have to wipe that performance against the Pies from our memory knowing the Cats will come out firing with a point to prove this week.
Geelong by 42 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Geelong -20.5 line @ $1.92
Western Bulldogs ($1.35) vs Richmond ($3.45)
Saturday May 6 – 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -18.5, Richmond +18.5
The Doggies have come out of the blocks slowly this year but last week looked to be the real turning point where they put in their best performance of the season.
It wasn’t enough to defeat the giants, but the full-strength Doggies team look to be at their very best. Unfortunately (for them, not us, we bet against them), they kicked poorly on the night and that really cost them the game.
On the KPIs the Doggies were the better team. They had 28 shots to 20 and 63 inside 50s to 50. the Clearances were fairly even overall and both teams had low marks inside 50 with the GWS getting 10-8. GWS Dominated the Hitouts but it didn’t really matter overall.
As expected last week, the Tigers were finally found out against the Crows with a huge 76 point defeat. I’m not sure anyone was expecting such a poor performance, but it was clearly below the Tigers best that is for sure.
The Tigers allowed Crows 35 shots on goal to their just 14, yet the inside 50 count was 60 (crows) to 50. Crows won the hitouts 63 to 41 and clearances 46 to 38. Adelaide had a huge 21 marks inside 50 to the Tigers 9.
The Tigers aren’t to be discounted against this Bulldogs line-up today.
Western Bulldogs by 8 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10
Sydney ($1.16) VS Brisbane ($6.5)
Sunday 7 May – 1.10pm AEST – SCG
Line: Sydney -40.5, Brisbane +40.5
The Swans continue to frustrate punters as they lose to the Blues at the MCG by 19 points on the weekend. On the KPIs they were beaten on the day but they had their chances and simply shot poorly infront of goal. Sydney actually had 1 more shot from 4 less inside 50s. They were competitive in the hitouts and clearances as well as marks inside 50.
The Swans need this win but could you trust them at the $1.14? I’d rather Adelaide at the odds personally.
The Lions have allowed shooting sprees against them with 96, 111, 107, 119, 122 and 150. The Swans have failed to score beyond 87 points this year despite a star studded forward-line.
The Lions, apart from the Round 1 game against the Suns where the Suns probably should have won by 30+, they have lost by 27 points or more each game this year.
The Suns games against the lesser teams this year such as the Bombers and Suns haven’t been too bad but they still haven’t been in the games.
Can they get within 40 points? Who knows! I’ll bet around the margins in this match and go for a players performance.
Sydney by 45 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Josh Kennedy 30 or more disposals @ $1.80
Fremantle ($1.63) Vs Essendon ($2.45)
Sunday 7 May – 2.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle -9.5, Essendon +9.5
The Dockers have been playing some decent football, but have let themselves down twice this season with some very average starts against the Cats and Eagles. They recorded wins over the Dogs, Demons and Roos in recent weeks that leads into being strong form against this Essendon side that failed significantly against the Demons.
The Dockers KPIs last week weren’t bad at the end of the game with 51 to 52 inside 50s, 60 to 69 tackles, 17 to 23 scoring shots, 39 to 35 clearances and 54 to 25 hitouts. Where they were savaged was 11 to 6 marks inside 50, 447 disposals to 358 and 137 to 84 marks.
They will run a much tighter ship this week against this Essendon team that is backing up for the third game in a very short 2 week period who have to travel all the way to Perth.
The Bombers recorded a surprise win against the Magpies on ANZAC Day and matched it with Melbourne for two quarters until the Demons kicked well away in the third quarter and the short back-up really told on a Bombers list that is made up of players that didn’t play last year.
Poor kicking infront of goal was partly to blame for the Bombers, but their kicking was just terrible throughout the day all over the ground and the Demons weren’t much better until the 2nd half.
The Demons had only 1 more inside 50 and 3 more scoring shots than the Bombers yet won by 38 in the end. The Bombers put on just 46 tackles for the match. The Bombers won the hitouts 45 to 25 but lost the clearances 31 to 40 and only had 8 marks inside 50 to the Demons 13.
The Bombers will need to go above and beyond today.
Fremantle by 24 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Fremantle -9.5 line @ $1.92
Melbourne ($1.46) Vs Hawthorn ($2.80)
Sunday 7 May – 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Melbourne -14.5, Hawthorn +14.5
The Demons sit in a tidy 3-3 position on the ladder after loses to the Tigers, Cats and Dockers. They haven’t beat much with wins over the Saints, Blues and Bombers on the record, but they continue to play a tough and hard brand of footy and don’t give up.
They got the win over a ‘tired’ Bombers team on the weekend as we expected and they really put them to the sword late. They come into this match to face a Hawks team that was killed the week prior by the Saints and we have no idea what team will turn up.
All we know is that this Demons team will be ready for anything the Hawks have to bring and it will take a top class coaching effort along with group buy in for the Hawks to match this Demons team.
The KPIs of the loss to the Saints is really ugly for the Hawks. They had 20 less scoring shots from 12 less inside 50s. They lost the hitouts by 5, they took a similar number of marks (120) but had a massive 80 less disposals for the match. The Saints dominated the Contested Marks and had 15 marks inside 50 to Hawthorns 8 while also wining the clearances 35-29. Defensively, the hawks were pulled apart.
The Hawks today come up against the weakest Demons team they will find for a while and we know they have the ability to match it with this Demons team… it’s impossible to trust them to show this form.
Melbourne by 19 points
Betting – Confidence 65%
Melbourne 1-39 margin @ $2.20