This week Carlton has the BYE.
For us, this round holds some of the hardest games to pick and some of the easiest. The QClash delivered on the weekend and we expect what must be called the WAClash to also deliver a close match.
All Injury updates can be found here.
Full Teams can be found here.
Geelong Cats ($3.05) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.38) – Friday 7:40pm
Collingwood have won the last two meetings against Geelong while Geelong did conquer Collingwood last year in round 9 by 36 points. Both teams go into this match undefeated. Interestingly, the Cats have beaten 3 teams sitting in the top 8 this year while the pies have only beaten 2 (noted they are sitting 3rd and 4th having played 1 game more than every other team in the top 8). To be able to analysis this game we have to look closer at what each team is doing this year. With 773 points scored from 6 games, the Pies are the most dominant team at the moment infront of goal. In contrast the cats have only kicked through 584 points. Interestingly, the pies have conceded 434 points compared to Geelongs 381 (the lowest of any team in the league). Interesting statistic. Geelong has won all but one 3rd Qtr this year and not lost a 4th Qtr while Collingwood have won every last Qtr BUT lost EVERY 3rd Qtr apart from Round 2 vs North Melbourne. Pies cannot play 3 Qtrs of football to win this match. A few injuries on both sides with Pies going into the game with no Jolly and Johnston while Maxwell is expected to pull out at a late stage. Further more, Tarrant also may not line up. Cats have dropped Mooney and Chirstensen (Mooney was out of form last week so it’s a plus).
We expect a hard fought match, both teams will leave everything on the field. It would be naive to look past the current premiers. It will be a close match for sure and for tipping purposes we have to go with Collingwood. For betting purposes, we believe that the Cats will get up in this game 40% of the time. With that in mind, we definitely believe the bookies have the odds wrong offering $3.05 for the Cats. Collingwood by 13.
Betting Option: Geelong Cats +46.5 at $1.25
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($2.21) vs Melbourne Demons ($1.67) – Saturday 2:10pm
North Melbourne has won the last 8 meetings against Melbourne. You have to go back to 2006 to find the Demons last win against the Roos. The tables are turned this year. Melbourne are travelling better than North. Melbourne sit in 7th on three wins, two loses and a draw compared to North Melbournes one win and five loses. Melbourne had a 90+ point win last week while North had a 60+ point LOSS. It would be stupid to write off North without further investigation. Melbourne are already missing a key midfielder in Scully and they will now be without Trengove for 3 weeks due to being suspended for his tackle on Dangerfield in last weeks win, Grimes who suffered a season-ending foot injury in the weekends game and also Jamar has been ruled out of the weekends game. To add to their worries, Bait was left out of the team today. Since our first write up and posting of odds, North have shortened to be the exact same odds as Melbourne in this game. Melbourne are missing too much quality in their team for us to tip them. It should be a close game but we feel North Melbourne will win by 17.
Tip: North Melbourne
Betting Option: North Melbourne +32.5 at $1.20
Adelaide Crows ($1.14) vs Gold Coast Suns ($5.75) – Saturday 2:40pm
Adelaide has won one of their last three games while Gold Coast have won two of their last three. Adelaide were lucky to get the win against Saints at home with the Saints kicking 9 goals 17.
Gold Coast have been big improvers over the last month and should take it to Adelaide. Gold Coast lose two big players in Daniel Harris and Daniel Corringe while Campbell Brown comes back in. On the other hand, Adelaide lose Taylor Walker who has been their saving grace up forward while gaining Richard Tambling back in.
The game will be closer than the odds suggest. Interestingly, Adelaide and Gold Coast both lost to Melbourne by similar margins and Adelaide LOST to Port Adelaide at home. Adelaides largest win this year was by 20.
We havn’t tipped Gold Coast all year and the Walker dropping from the side tips us towards Gold Coast in this game. Gold Coast by 4!
Tip: Gold Coast
Betting Option: Gold Coast Suns+64.5 at $1.25
Brisbane Lions ($5.10) vs Essendon Bombers ($1.17) – Saturday 7:10pm
Essendon were magnificant last week while Brisbane were woeful losing to Gold Coast. They have lost two decent players from their lineup who have showed alot of heart in Raines and Beams.
Essendon lost one player in Brent Stanton. Essendon has not won any of these teams last three meetings with Brisbane winning by 43 and 27 and a draw being in the middle.
Brisbane have stuck with most teams this year but were blown away by the Bulldogs and we expect the same to happen here with Essendon. Essendon by 58
Betting Option: Essendon Bombers -6.5 at $1.25
Sydney Swans ($1.13) vs Port Adelaide Power ($6.00) – Saturday 7:40pm
The odds tell the tale. This looks like a one sided battle and when you look back at the history between these two teams, Sydney have won the last 6 games by an average margin of 30 points.
Port gave their best last week and stuck with an undermanned Hawthorn for 3 Qtr’s before being blown away. They lose David Rodan who has been one of their most explosive all year.
The Swans lose Mike Pyke to injury and gain Lewis Roberts-Thomson back in. Ports injury list keeps growing and with their captain Cassisi and Rodan on the injury list, we cannot see them getting close here. Sydney by 32
Betting Option: Sydney -9.5 at $1.20
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.37) vs St Kilda Saints ($3.10) – Sunday 1:10pm
Since 2003, St Kilda have had the wood over Hawthorn. The last game between these two teams was a draw and prior to that, Saints have won 7 of the 8 games.
Hawthorn lose Renouf to injury which is a fairly big out for them. Luckily they have Hale come back in with Osborne, Suckling and Schoenmakers all named as well.
St Kilda on the other hand lose Montagna, who has been the best player the last four weeks and Raph clarke has has been dropped (about time). Farren Ray, Dawson and Gamble are handy in’s.
This game will be closer than the betting suggests and we feel Saints can sneak over in a close one by 4 points.
Betting Option: Saints +49.5 at $1.20
Western Bulldogs ($1.68) vs Richmond Tigers ($2.19) – Sunday 2:10pm
Doggies have won 7 of the last 8 games against the Tigers with only a draw blemishing the record. Doggies have won the last 3 games by 47, 68 and 72.
Richmond go into the game unchanged from the team that beat Fremantle last week by 47 points while Doggies have a few handy in’s with Liberatore and Hargrave back into the team.
The Doggies are still missing Higgins and Hall up forward and Lake down back. We wern’t totally convinced last week by either teams performances but Richmond showed alot more heart than the Doggies and should get over the line by 7 points.
Betting Option: Richmond Tigers +39.5 at $1.20
West Coast Eagles ($2.03) vs Fremantle Dockers ($1.79) – Sunday 2:40pm
The WAclash (copyright) has been won by Fremantle the last 7 games! Fremantle have been struggling in the last few games and have scraped over the line in quite a few compared to West Coast who have taken great teams to the limit and beaten others.
Both teams go in mainly unchanged. Sandilands is a freak and has been the big plus all year for Freo. Cox will be able to contain him a little better than Sandi’s previous opponents and we believe West coast and pull this one out in a close one. West Coast by 18.
Tip: West Coast
Betting Option: West Coast Eagles +34.5 at $1.25
Betting Options in Order of Preference
Essendon Bombers -6.5 at $1.25
Sydney -9.5 at $1.20
North Melbourne +32.5 at $1.20
Gold Coast Suns+67.5 at $1.25
Geelong Cats +46.5 at $1.25
Richmond Tigers +39.5 at $1.20
West Coast Eagles +34.5 at $1.25
Saints +49.5 at $1.20
All Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.