Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 9 2017 Preview. Last week’s matches put up a few more surprises, topped off with the Adelaide Crows losing big time to the Demons. I’ve worked extra hard this week to try and spot what looks like some very solid betting positions and i’m keen to bet up. Looking forward to the up-coming bye rounds which always seem to throw up some interesting results. Good luck and happy tipping.
(5 units): West Coast -11.5 line @ $1.92
(2 units): St Kilda 1-39 margin @ $2.30
(2 units): Adelaide Quarter Time -10.5 Line @ $1.87
(1 units): Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.00
(1 unit): Collingwood VS Hawthorn – Tri Bet 24.5 – Either Team Under 24.5 Points @ $1.72
Geelong ($2.10) VS Western Bulldogs ($1.74)
Friday 19 May – 7.50pm AEST – Simonds Stadium
Line: Geelong +4.5, Western Bulldogs -4.5
The Cats come into this game with one of the most healthy lists in the league with just Henderson the main ‘core’ top 12 player missing from their list for this match.
The Cats were terrible last week against the Bombers putting one of the poorest pressure matches of the season having under 15 tackles to half-time. The Display against the Suns the previous week wasn’t much better and neither was the effort against the Magpies the week prior to that. If we look back to the efforts against the Saints and even the Demons there is clearly a team with top 4 ability on paper, but even since the coach signed a contract extension, the team hasn’t been playing for him.
This is the Cats first home game at Simonds Stadium for the year and they have a ruthless record at the stadium.
The Cats won the Inside 50s by 11 and had 3 more shots on goal last week, but they shot poorly and put on just 40 tackles for the match compared to Essendons 80. The stats showed that the Cats had their chances with 47 to 30 clearances and 13 to 14 marks inside 50.. they even won the contested marks 13 to 7 around the grounds.
The Dogs have lost two of their last three matches with loses to the Giants and Eagles while they got a close 5 point win over the Tigers in the middle of that. This is a dogs team that is still missing a few class players but have a solid team overall.
It would be harsh to say they were poor last week against the Dogs, but they were certainly outplayed on the day. The Eagles had 3 less Inside 50s but 3 more shots on goal for the day. The Dogs put on 12 more tackles throughout the match and had 1 more hitout overall. Both teams were poor infront of goal but the Eagles won the game on the rebound 50s, one percenters and Marks Inside 50 on the counter.
The Dogs will match up well against this Cats team that has been lacking in pressure recently, but with 11 players with less than 50 games in the team, the Doggies still need to prove their worth.
This is one of the toughest games to predict for the week. The Dogs have only just been winning but have been competitive the past month, while the Cats have been hugely disappointing the past 3 weeks in a row. They would have to turn a corner back at home this week and you would expect 100% effort here. On current form, I couldn’t tip the Cats, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go finally turn up for this match.
Western Bulldogs by 10 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Western Bulldogs -4.5 line @ $1.92
St Kilda ($1.74) vs Sydney ($2.10)
Saturday 20 May – 1:45pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda -5.5, Sydney +5.5
St Kilda Saints
The Saints have won five of their last six matches with a loss to the Cats during that time. They have beaten some contenders including the Giants at this stadium two weeks back. The Saints put in a more than ‘acceptable’ performance last week against the Blues, ending up winning by 19 points. It wasn’t a season defining win and it wasn’t one to remember, but they got the job done.
The Stats paint a much prettier story with the Saints dominating the Inside 50s 55 to 33, scoring shots 25 to 16, but they didn’t convert as well infront of goal. They won the Hitouts 34 to 26 and the clearances 33 to 29 with 14 Marks inside 50 to 12.
The Saints can continue on with their current form and will be hard to beat.
Have the Swans turned the corner? Last week they took down our best bet of the round in the Kangaroos who were super impressive the week prior against the Crows. That form didn’t stand up though last week with the Demons destroying the Crows, suggesting the Crows weakness was exposed in the Roos match.
The Swans still have a lot to prove after only beating two of the bottom 4 teams this season. I personally liked what I saw from the Swans who never really let the Roos back into the game and Reid and Buddy finally showed that they still have the X factor when it’s needed.
When we dig deeper into the win last week, the Swans only had 8 more Inside 50s than the Roos but 7 more shots on goal. The Roos won the Hitouts and put on 30 more tackles, but the Swans had an amazing 56 more marks around the ground and won the Marks Inside 50 15 to 8.
The Saints haven’t been blowing away teams this season and I can’t see them putting a number over on the Swans either. That being said, the Saints do very much look the real deal this season and can progress deep into the final on what i’ve seen. They have a full-strength team and come up against a Swans team with alot to prove. I’m happy to side with the Saints at home.
St Kilda by 18 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
St Kilda 1-39 margin @ $2.30
Greater Western Sydney ($1.19) VS Richmond ($4.75)
Saturday 20 May 4:35pm AEST – Spotless Stadium
GWS -28.5, Richmond +28.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants are currently the walking wounded with 10 big name players out of the team and some very inexperienced kids are now filling the trenches. The past few weeks performances have been evidence of the inexperience of this group with the loss to the Saints very much down to the age and determination of the young squad. It took a veteran, Stevie J to get them over the line against the Pies last week and he really stood up on the day. Josh Kelly has gone to the next level this year and had a breakout career best game which could very well have him just a few votes off the leaders in the Brownlow.
The Giants appeared to be the better team on the day according to the KPIs with 56 to 50 inside 50s, 27 to 24 scoring shots, 79 to 51 tackles and 16 to 13 marks inside 50 with the clearances going even 41 a piece. The Pies are a true top 6 team at their very best for mine and this is form you can take into this game with confidence.
After starting the season 5-0 the Tigers have dropped the next three matches with only the Crows match being the blowout. They have lost the last two against the Doggies and Dockers by less than a kick with a heartbreaking loss last week.
The Tigers were destroyed in the Ruck as expected winning just 23 of 47 Hitouts, but surprisingly, won the Clearances 35 to 25. Fremantle won the Inside 50 marks with 15-14 and tackle count 69-57, but the Tigers had more Inside 50s with 53 to 45, while having 2 less shots on goal. It was a even game at the end of the game on the KPIs but the Dockers really beat the Tigers in most areas of the game up until 3 QTR time when they led by 30.
The Tigers are missing a few key players due to injuries and making the best of a bad situation. Expect them to put up a fight again.
This is a game that appears closer on paper than the odds suggest. I couldn’t take the Giants at the current line and if you made me choose between the two sides, i’d go with the Tigers. That being said, I also don’t want to be on the Tigers line here as I’m confident of a Giants win, but not in a blowout. With that in mind, the 1-39 margin will be the bet.
Greater Western Sydney by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.00
Brisbane ($8.50) VS Adelaide ($1.07)
Saturday 20 May – 7.25pm AEST – Gabba
Brisbane +45.5, Adelaide -45.5
Excluding the round one match against the Suns, the Lions have failed to keep any other team in the next 7 rounds from beyond a 27 point beating. The past five weeks have sen 32, 38, 52, 54 and 83 point beat downs. This is a Lions team that is lacking in skill and grace and only keeping their scores respectable with straight kicking.
When you look at the KPIs, this isn’t a team that is being beaten badly in the midfield with 42 to 47 clearances last week and 63 to 50 hitouts, but they had just 43 to 56 inside 50s and 8 to 18 marks inside 50. Their defense is shot and the Crows will have every chance to exploit this weakness.
The Crows had looked unbeatable until two weeks ago when they were destroyed by the Roos at Blundstone Arena and then last week suffered a shock defeat to the Demons shooting just 3 goals 5 behinds to 12 goals 2 in the final half.
The KPIs for the match weren’t terrible at all for the Crows with 76 to 29 hitouts, but they did lose the clearances 38 to 49. They also lost Marks inside 50 12-15. The Demons put on a huge 89 tackles throughout the match but did only have 1 more shot on goal.
The Crows can bounce back this week against a much easier opponent.
The Crows will have a point to prove today. We have to remember that this is the same Crows team that put 153 points past the Bombers, 153 past the Suns and 147 points past the Hawks and this is a Brisbane team that had Port Adelaide put 150 points past them while other teams such as the Bulldogs scored 12 and the Swans 135.
This is a game that is expected to be largely affected by rain fall and a very sloppy pitch. I’m expecting this to play into the hands of the Crows. Expect the Crows to have something to prove early and to start off on fire.
Adelaide by 65 points.
Betting – Confidence 85%
Adelaide Quarter Time -10.5 Line @ $1.87
Collingwood ($1.74) VS Hawthorn ($2.10)
Saturday 20 May – 7.25pm AEST – MCG
Collingwood -4.5, Hawthorn +4.5
The Pies have lost four of their last 5 with a win over the Cats the only saving grace. The Pies were successful last week in their performance against the under-manned Giants team at Spotless Stadium. They return to the MCG today where they have won just 1 of 5 this season. Treloar is expected to return to the line up this week which is a big positive, but it is expected to be a wet and wild affair in Melbourne on Saturday which may very well affect the result of this match.
The Hawks have won 3 of their last 4 matches with a strong win over the Eagles at the MCG, a close one over the Demons and an easy beating of the Lions last week. They did falter heavily against the Saints between those wins.
The Hawks are hitting all the relevant clearance, hitout, disposal and conversion KPIs including marks inside 50 and inside 50 marks to be a consistent threat to this Pies team today. On paper, Hawks do deserve to be underdogs.
The weather will play a crucial role in deciding who wins this match. I have this one going right to the wire and can hardly split the two teams. Very keen to bet in a way that ensures we profit on a close finish for either team.
Collingwood by 2 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Tri Bet 24.5 – Either Team Under 24.5 Points @ $1.72
Essendon ($2.45) VS West Coast ($1.55)
Sunday 21 May – 1.10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Essendon +11.5, West Coast -11.5
The Bombers kicked straight last week and got a 5 goal headstart on the Cats which saw them through to the end of the match.
The Cats had 9 more Inside 50s and 3 more shots on goal but 41 less tackles. The Cats won the Hitouts by 6 and clearances by 17 on the day.. but poor shooting infront of goal helped the Bombers to a win.
The Bombers are lacking in injuries which is a positive here.
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles return to Etihad Stadium where they had no issues in Round 1 disposing of the Roos by 43 points and kicked thier highest score for the season 136 points. This has to give anyone betting the Eagles today confidence that the team can travel and handle the stadium in comparison to their performances at the MCG.
The Eagles hit all the required KPIs last week again the Bulldogs and got the job done all over the field. The 15 Marks inside 50 to 12 is a big key to their chances today and so was the 24 shots on goal from just 47 inside 50s. This is a team that continues to lose the clearance numbers but win matches.
The Eagles have proven themselves the past four weeks to be a final contender this year and they are the real deal outside of games at the MCG.
West Coast by 32 points
Betting – Confidence 95%
West Coast -11.5 line @ $1.92
Fremantle ($1.29) VS Carlton ($3.70)
Sunday 21 May – 4.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Fremantle -21.5, Carlton +21.5
The Dockers come into this match having won 5 of their last 6 matches with a slow start causing a poor effort against the Eagles three weeks back. They return home after a tough after the siren win over the Tigers at the MCG and they look very hard to beat at Domain Stadium.
The Dockers continue to convert well when they get inside of 50 this year and they had 22 shots from just 45 entries against the Tigers. They were on top until 3 QTR time before they got tired late.
The Dockers look well suited against the Blues here, but it won’t be a push-over.
The Blues have won 2 of their last three against the Magpies and Swans and put in a very respectable effort to push the Saints to just 19 points last week at Etihad Stadium. The Blues have a team that is working well together and shooting straight infront of goal which always helps… but the scoreboard did flatter them last week agaisnt the Saints when they managed just 33 inside 50s to 55.
The Blues will need to improve onwards and upwards to match it with this in-form Dockers team, in Perth.
I’m not expecting an overly large score in this match between the Dockers and the Blues. The Blues have a slim chance as the odds suggest, but I can’t look against the Dockers here.
Fremantle by 23 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
Fremantle 1-39 @ $1.91
Melbourne ($1.47) VS North Melbourne ($2.70)
Sunday 21 May – 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Melbourne -13.5, North Melbourne +13.5
The Demons have won 2 of their last 3 with a ‘surprise’ loss to the Hawks in between wins. Last week they got the better of the Crows and put them away by a massive 41 points. It was a clinical effort after a slow start by the Demons.
Looking at the KPIs, the Demons won the Inside 50s, shots on goal and tackles, but massively lost the hitouts. The Demons dominated the Clearances and Marks Inside 50. Scoring Shots were very close so poor kicking from the Crows and straight kicking from the Demons certainly affected the end results.
The Roos recorded their first two wins of the season in a row before a very disappointing 42 point loss to the Swans last week at Etihad Stadium. This is their first game for the season at the MCG. Waite is obviously a big in for this team but Hogan is also expected to return for the Demons.
The KPIs of last week and watching to the eye showed that the Roos are able to be shut down across the ground and will need to change tactics to beat this Demons outfit.
This is a clash between two teams of interesting form lines. I’m not fully sold of the Demons unit, but the Roos were terrible against the Swans last week also. This looks to be a very interesting match-up and i’m expecting a hard fought match to the wire.
Melbourne by 8 points
Betting – Confidence 65%
Melbourne 1-39 margin @ $2.20