The NAB Cup is one of the most unpredictable markets going around and that is the main reason we haven’t even attempted to provide our readers with game reviews. Teams change before games and the heat plays a huge part in the results. We are happy to have a go at the below play
|North Melbourne||188||169||19||12||Plays Geelong|
|Geelong||205||158||47||8||Plays North Melbourne|
|St Kilda||155||156||-1||8||Plays Melbourne|
|Game Odds||Chance of win||Game Line|
Collingwood have come up the $2.40 favourite to win the NAB Cup Grand Final on Betfair markets. While this price certainly looks under the odds, it is hard to bet against Bucks team in Melbourne against a Brisbane team… so the odds offered are pretty much the right price. That being said, the Pies are a $1.50 chance which looks over the odds in the game markets. Enough with the Pies as we aren’t looking at taking a bet on any specific games, simply looking for a play that is over the odds.
Carlton were strong last week smashing Fremantle by 70 points while Adelaide lost to Geelong pretty much in the first QTR, ending up with only half Geelong’s score losing by 63 points. Carlton have named a better team than last week while Adelaide have named a near full strength team. It must be noted that the Geelong team they played was no where near full strength.
While I believe the odds for Carlton of $2.35 are over the odds, that is also not what we want to know. We simply want to look at who can make the grand final and trade off this result.
Let’s start with the lesser chances. St Kilda has a current negative aggregate of 1. To pass Carlton, they would need to beat Melbourne by 50 points and to have Carlton lose by 45 points. The current lines in each of those games are 24 and 8.5. This would require a MASSIVE 62.5 point turn around for St Kilda to pass them, so we are happy to simply rule them out of knocking Carlton out of the finals.
Richmond plays Hawthorn has slight favourites. Coming into the game with a 19 point aggregate, Richmond need to record a 76 point aggregate turn around. With lines of 4.5 and 8.5, this is a 63 point turn around needed for Richmond to pass Carlton, making it virtually impossible also.
Geelong is an interesting proposition. They are putting in a significantly better team this week against a North Melbourne team who have trained with them four times over the summer. They currently sit 47 points aggregate below Carlton and with the 11.5 and 8.5 lines, only need a 27 point turn around. Of course, winning by 100 points won’t make a difference if Carlton wins.
One of Brisbane or Collingwood HAS to win. It is hard to see the winner missing the final with Collingwood holding a 21 point aggregate and Brisbane a 38 point aggregate score over North Melbourne. This means that North Melbourne not only need to defy the 11.5 point line that suggests they will lose, they also have to either win by 22 points minimum or 39 points minimum depending which team wins. Of course, there is a VERY minimal chance that a draw could occur.
Finally, we look at North Melbourne. They go into their game against Geelong $2.55 underdogs giving them a 39.2% chance of winning. If they win, and Carlton loses, they go through to the final.
So what does all of this mean?
I give Carlton a big chance to win on Friday evening and a win will guarantee a final if it happens. IF Carlton doesn’t win, it all comes down to the Geelong v North Melbourne game with Geelong at $1.55 fav to not win by over 30 points (suggesting Carlton doesn’t lose by more than 17).
What is the play?
My play for this is to back Carlton at the $3.40 quote on Betfair to win the NAB Cup. If they win Friday night, they will jump into around the $2-$2.20 mark. If they lose, but Geelong win by 1 to X (aggregate depending), then they also make the final. I would suggest that Carlton won’t be longer than the $2.40 quote against the favourite Collingwood and if they are against Brisbane, they would be favourites for sure. Getting on at $3.40 and getting off at $2.20 with a hedge on Betfair gives you the odds of $1.50 for this bet.
There isn’t any market around the bookies for Carlton to make the final, but if there was, they wouldn’t be better over $1.25 in my opinion and this is a value bet which wins in the long run.
*Expect more liquidity to be in the Betfair market in the final hours before the Carlton v Adelaide game* You can back them at $3.25/$3.30 around the bookie markets.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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