Betting in-play and spotting good odds

In-play betting is where you call up your bookie (Sportsbet, Tab etc.) or exchange (Betfair) and place a bet whilst the sport is currently in play. Laws are trying to be passed that will allow you to bet in-play on the internet hopefully within 6-9 months but until then, it is all over the phone.

The 2012 AFL Grand Final was a prime example of how weather conditions can make for brilliant in-play betting.

There was strong wind conditions the whole day making it incredibly hard to score to one end of the ground while making it very easy to score at the other. Up until 3QTR time there had been 15 goals 9 behinds scored to the end supported by the wind while 4 goals 6 behinds to the end kicking against the wind. Those statistics are damning. Hawthorn went into 3 QTR time on 64 points compared to Sydney who were on 65. Sydney would be kicking WITH the wind in the final QTR and the markets were clearly wrong with Sydney a $2.10 underdog on in-play betting markets on Betfair.

So what factors are we looking at to determine odds on this situation?

The first is that you need to make sure the wind is still blowing. I personally made a call to a friend who was at the final who confirmed the weather conditions were consistent with previous QTRs. You can generally get the information you need from watching the TV but you really want to be sure that it hasn’t died down.

The second factor is the odds before the match. You will find that the better teams do generally finish better so that is something that will affect the odds on the markets. This can actually work in your favour if you are wanting to bet on the underdog like happened in this situation with Sydney.

The final factor is using the previous statistics to your advantage. For example, moving away from the AFL Grand final to the NRL Grand Final, Melbourne Storm had won 37 of the last 38 games they had lead at half-time in. Further more, in the finals series they had kept all three teams to under 12 points. Melbourne was leading 14 to 4 at half-time… all of these factors lead to towards the Storm. In the AFL situation we are looking at the previous three QTRs. There was an average of 33 points scored to the WITH wind end each QTR while an average of 10 points was scored towards the end kicking AGAINST the wind. You then also look at the fact that the only QTR Hawthorn had played kicked AGAINST the wind had resulted in them scored 1 point. Everything is pointing towards a Sydney win.

Determining the odds from here is hard. I then want to look at further factors. The largest score to the Hawthorn end in the 3 QTRs so far was 19 points while the smallest towards the Sydney end was 29 points. This gave me the confidence to believe that Sydney had a 10 point advantage at very minimum going into the final QTR. With Sydney trading at $2.20 on Betfair, I had them a $1.50 chance to win from this situation and had a large confidence factor on this bet. This not only determines if you are taking the bet, but how much you will bet. This confidence and value made it a large bet.

The start of the final QTR certainly didn’t turn out the way we wanted it with Hawthorn kicking the first two goals but the advantage of the wind played into Sydney’s favour and they ended up winning by 10 points, one off the advantage we gave them (Sydney was already 1 in-front at 3QTR time). We were able to get on for my money when Hawthorn had scored those two goals and layed Hawthorn at the odds of $1.35.

Different circumstances allow for different factors. Weather is a unique factor and is one of the easiest to judge. Until you are confident, don’t go large with your bets!



The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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