Australians have never had it so good from the Bookies and Spring seems to always be the season that brings out the biggest and best promotions. There are many in Australia who casually turn five figure profits by taking advantage of bookie promotions and I am slowly sharing my knowledge to help you start with the three figures and to head onto four figures! The key for these successful ‘traders’ is to make sure they don’t profit from the bookies through these promotions. Confused? Read on.
For those who followed our article last week, Beat up the Bookies, a $64 profit was achieved with Port Adelaide beating the ‘best result’ line by just 4 points which would have had us in triple figures. This week looks even more profitable with what is on offer.
Let’s start with what is on offer for the AFL.
There are two different strategies to approach what Centrebet is offering. As always, I will approach it the conservative way – on the favourites. Centrebet is refunding bets up to a maximum of $100 if the team you back leads at half-time but goes on to lose.
Centrebet currently have Geelong $1.22 and Sydney $1.33 in the two semi-final matches this weekend. It actually doesn’t matter whether you think these teams will lose or not, you are simply playing the statistical odds.
The maths for this one is fairly simple. Please note the workings out below are based on paying the 5% winnings commission on Betfair. If you bet there often, the commission paid is lower.
Geelong VS Port Adelaide 7.50pm Friday
Back Geelong for $100 at Centrebet at $1.22. Outlay = $100
Lay Geelong for $100 at Betfair at $1.25. Outlay = $25
Total Outlay: $125
If Geelong win: +122 from Centrebet which = -$3.00
If Geelong lose: +120 from Betfair which = -$5.00
If Geelong lead at half-time and lose: $100 refunded from Centrebet and +$95 from Betfair
Potential Results: -$3, -$5.00 and +$95
In effect, you are being given a specific bet called half-time/full-time. On Centrebet, the current price for Geelong / Port Adelaide is $11. Let’s take the maximum profit of $95 and divide it by the maximum lose of $5.00. This is how you work out the odds you are getting which come out to $19. Considering Geelong is the $1.22 favourites, I think we can assume that using the $3 loss for if Geelong win, which gives you odds of $30.18, is value. Even if you were to take out the probability in the middle, you would be left with around a total value or $25+.
Interestingly, the second play actually doesn’t work out to be as much value.. but it is worth going through the process and realising why.
Sydney VS Carlton 7.45pm Saturday
Back Sydney for $100 at Centrebet at $1.33. Outlay = $100
Lay Sydney for $100 at Betfair at $1.40. Outlay = $40
Total Outlay: $140
If Sydney win: +$133 at Centrebet which = -$7.00
If Sydney lose: +$135 at Betfair which = $-5.00
If Sydney lead at half-time and lose: $100 refunded from Centrebet and +$95 from Betfair
As with the Geelong match, you are being given the half-time/full-time bet. Interestingly, Centrebet also has this half-time/full-time bet of Sydney / Carlton at $11. A little surprising considering the difference in prices between Sydney and Geelong. Checking on the Betfair prices, there is money backing this result at $11.50. You are being given $13.57 odds here against the -$7 result on Sydney winning or $19 against the -$5 Carlton win. Not as much value as the previous game, but still value.
Now onto the NRL. Centrebet are offering exactly the same offer. If your team leads at half-time, but goes on to lose, you get your money back. I personally think these bets are significantly more probable to cash than the AFL bets… but once again, value is the key. Most of the HT/FT prices on all totes are between $7-$10 for all of the games below.
Rabbitohs VS Storm Friday 7.45pm
Back Rabbitohs for $100 at Centrebet at $1.87. Outlay = $100
Lay Rabbitohs for $100 at Betfair at $1.89. Outlay = $89
Total Outlay: $189
If Rabbitohs win: +187 from Centrebet which is = -$2
If Rabbitohs lose: +185.53 from Betfair which is = -$5
If Rabbitohs lead at half-time and lose: $100 refunded from Centrebet and +$95 from Betfair
Potential Results: -$2, -$5 and +$95.0
Odds given for HT/FT Rabbitohs/Storm: $19
Sharks VS Cowboys Saturday 4pm
Back Sharks for $100 at Centrebet at $1.77. Outlay = $100
Lay Sharks for $100 at Betfair at $1.82. Outlay = $82
Total Outlay: $182
If Sharks win: +177 from Centrebet which = -$5.00
If Sharks lose: +177 from Betfair which = -$5.00
If Sharks lead at half-time and lose: $100 refunded from Centrebet and +$95 from Betfair.
Potential Results: -$5.00, -$5.00, +$95
Odds given for HT/FT Sharks/Cowboys: $19
Roosters VS Sea Eagles Saturday 7pm
Back Roosters for $100 at Centrebet at $1.80. Outlay = $100
Lay Roosters for $100 at Betfair at $1.87. Outlay = $87
Total Outlay: $187
If Roosters win: +$180 from Centrebet which = -$7.00
If Roosters lose: +182 from Betfair which = $5.00
If Roosters lead at half-time and lose: $100 refunded from Centrebet and +$95 from Betfair.
Potential Results: -$7.00, -$5.00, +$95
Odds given for HT/FT Roosters/Sea Eagles: $13.57
Bulldogs VS Knights Sunday 4pm
Back Bulldogs for $100 at Centrebet at $1.58. Outlay = $100
Lay Bulldogs for $100 at Betfair at $1.64. Outlay = $64
Total Outlay: $164
If Bulldogs win: +158 from Centrebet which = -$6.00
If Bulldogs lose: +159 from Betfair which = -$5.00
If Bulldogs lead at half-time and lose: $100 refunded from Centrebet and +$95.00 from Betfair.
Potential Results: -$6.00, -$5.00, +$95
Odds given for HT/FT Dogs/Knights: $15.83.
Not a member of Centrebet? Sign up today and receive a $200 Sign-up Bonus Bet.
Sportsbet have some great promos this weekend also. The best of the lot has to be in the NRL considering there are four games on offer. They are giving your money back up to $100 if your team loses by 10 points or less.
A quick example of how well this can work for you is:
Back Rabbitohs at $1.80 with Sportsbet for $100
Lay at $1.89 with Betfair for $100
Outlay of $189
If Rabbitohs win, you lose $9
If Storm win by 1-10, you are refunded the $100 from Sportsbet and profit $95 from Betfair
If Storm win by 11+, you lose $5
This one is more up to what you want to do. You could quite easily do it the opposite way which would give a play on the Rabbitohs to win by 1-10 if that is how you expect it to go.
You can do this on every one of the games this weekend.
Not a member of Sportsbet? Sigh up today and receive a $150 Sign-Up Bonus Bet.
As they did last week, Ladbrokes are giving you the 20 point promotion. Yes, that means you can have a maximum of $50 on Geelong and $50 on Sydney and if they lose by 20 points or less, you get a refund.
I am actually not even going to suggest you hedge this bet in any way. Take both of them head on. Why? Geelong with a 19.5 point head start on Sportsbet is $1.03 and Sydney $1.06.
Their other promotion is if your NRL bet scores 3 tries or more and lose, you get a full refund. For a game such as Souths vs Storm, this looks super solid. Go do some stats yourself and look to see which team has scored 3 tries or more at least 7 of their last 10 matches.. then go from there!
Not a Ladbrokes member? Sign-Up now for a $250 Sign-Up Deposit Match Bonus.
Can betting on promos get you banned?
Placing a winning bet on any tote can get you banned. Don’t ask me exactly how or why, but it is very unlikely that you will be even given a second thought for a three-figure win. Even four-figure wins are rarely looked at. I have seen rare circumstances where casual betters, which this guide is aimed at, have been banned from using promotions, and that was due to pulling out four figures in the one day from a promo. The majority of your profit from these promotions are coming from Betfair due to backing favourites.
*Important* – Read all the T&Cs before placing bets. Note that some do require the refunds to be turned over. If you are lucky enough for this to happen, you can generally turn this money over if you really want to withdraw it by laying on Betfair and backing on that Bookie a EPL/AFL/NRL game for the price of $2 for $100.. but in all honesty.. you will be using that money next week as well.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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