The Cleaner factor

Horse Racing - Australia

The Cleaner now has an Australian-wide colt following. His ability to gain the lead and set brutal sectional after sectional has him as a very unique horse in the racing landscape. There are a few other horses going around in Victoria at the moment that run best with a similar strategy as well, with Charmed Harmony, Kenjorwood and Jacquinot Bay all in that camp.

What most punters don’t realise is that more than 75% of the field put into a race with these types of horses, will instantly have 0 chance of winning. The sectionals set by these types of horses out the front are so unique that the majority of the horses behind have never encountered a race where sectional after sectional set is so strong.

While you would expect swoopers to be favoured by a strong tempo, you hardly ever see a horse worse than midfield win one of these races (Adelaide won the Cox Plate with a freak run and the 800-600m sectional when Moore made the move – he was gifted a cheap sectional – Arnold made a big mistake on The Cleaner). The reasoning behind this generally is as mentioned above, they have never had to do that pace before.. most back markers want a soft first half of the race and a solid finish, but it’s almost impossible for these types to make up the ground required off the solid tempo.

This is why you see the majority of top 3 finishes in these races come from horses sitting in the top 5 around the turn. Just a little more on the backmarkers in these races, they are out there for a reason, their best runs are when ridden cold, do no work and let go final 600m… they are doing a load of work just to keep up all race!

We were lucky enough to have all four horses going around on Saturday at Caulfield so this is a great time to bring up the factor and to look further into it.

The Underwood – with The Cleaner in the race, is the perfect race to start off looking at to identify horses you knew would handle the tempo from past runs and then also identify those who have been questionable on it.

Will appreciate the tempo

Fawkner – Cox Plate run with The Cleaner in the race
Mourinho – Beat The Cleaner two runs back – last run was flat which explains the price
Mongolian Khan/Volkstok’n’barrelll – that Derby in the Autumn was brutal, they will grind away all day
Dandino – Consistently shown in the past to handle all types of tempo
Dibayani – 3rd to Mourinho/The Cleaner two back

Unknown

Magicool
Weary
Sertorius
Hi World

Will NOT appreciate the tempo

Contributer – Ran poorly first up with The Cleaner in the race in the Feehan. Tempo won’t change in this race – not suited.

The race worked out as expected with Hi World pushing forward with The Cleaner while Mourinho and Fawkner sat 3rd and 4th in the running. Hi World’s first time with this tempo just didn’t handle it and fell out of it while Mourinho, The Cleaner and Fawkner fought it out to the line, while Mongolian Khan ran into 4th from a midfield position.

The last of the day at Caulfield demonstrates this factor even more with the well fancied Takenja setting a brutal pace the whole way and falling out for dead last. If Takenja hadn’t set the tempo, Kenjorwood and Jacquinot Bay certainly would have been setting a similar tempo, but they got a dream run just off the horse with the tempo to suit. The top 4 home in this race sat 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in that order with Kenjorwood toughing it out from Jac Bay while Extra Noble stuck on with them all the way off 51kg, with an advantage of 8kg and 6.5kg on Jac and Kenjor.

In the three runs this prep from The Cleaner, the top 3 positions in the race were taken by horses sitting 4th in running or closer on every occasion apart from one, where the 2nd placed horse came from midfield. In his previous 4 wins, no horse has run 2nd to The Cleaner from further back than 6th in the run. Charmed Harmony’s record is a similar tale. Excluding last start where he didn’t lead on the weekend, he won four races in a row, with only one place filled by a horse that sat further back than top 5 in the run (7th).

So where does the betting advantage come from the above? These front runners give themselves every chance and can be backed to win long term, no doubt about it, but there are proven runners you can make money off, like Mourinho on the weekend. Mourinho raced flat last start and was a forgive run, having beaten The Cleaner the run before and having run well behind him in the past. They bet $29 on Betfair 15 minutes out from the race and $20+ before the jump. Keep an eye out in these races for horses with the profile to win, even at big odds.

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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