The early bird DOES get the worm

Successful long-term betting is all about getting a price that is considered value. Normally, you need to get in early to secure a winning price, especially if the horse is a favourite.

How often have you seen a successful horse start the day at $2.20 and jump on all the totes and even Betfair at around the $1.60/$1.70 mark? Over the past two and a half years of doing my form and betting every Saturday, this is by far the most consistent trend. On this information alone, you can potentially make a substantial amount of money backing early and laying off late.. hedging out for a profit no matter what the result.

We are spoiled for choice in Australia with Betfair, TAB, Sportsbet, Luxbet, Sportingbet, Centrebet, Betstar, IASbet, Tatts and Bet365 just to name a few of the organisations buying for our money.

For taking the early odds, there is one bookie that stands out for me and that is Bet365. While Centrebet offers a similar product on the DAY of racing, Bet365, three days out from the race, offer a product that is better than any other. The product is called 365 Best and the description is as follows.

‘We guarantee to pay you the Best of the dividends declared by SuperTAB, NSW Tab, Tatts, Offical Starting Price or our Fixed Price at the time of bet placement.”

While I’m sure you get the picture, this means that if you were wrong about the selection being value at the time of placing the bet and the horse drifts in the market, you will be given the best of the three totes or the official on course starting price.

My number one early pick this week is Buffering at the $3.20 quote on Bet365. He is a super horse, proved that he has come back strongly first up winning at Moonee Valley and has 2 wins 1 placing over the 1000m distance. That placing was behind Black Caviar and Hay List.. not bad form. There is rain predicted for the next few days and due to the 1200m win at Moonee Valley being on a dead track, that gives me the confidence he will handle the track. There is no doubt that there are other horses in the race with quality, but they have not proven themselves against a horse like buffering. I can’t see the $3.20 quote lasting and expect him to be around the $2.60 mark (at maximum) on the day with the potential to jump at around $2.20.

There is a time and a place for each different book maker listed above. Luxbet allows us to multi up win bets and place bets in the one multi. Betstar is (once again) offering double odds (Max $50) on the Group 1 races on the weekend (you would be stupid to bet anywhere else for those races) and Betfair consistently offers the best odds if you bet on every race for the whole day. The others all have special offers that can’t be matched with bonuses for loses, best of all tote exotics and many other specials. To be a winner in this game, you need to spread your money around and get the best price.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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