We are a week down into the new MLB season, and while there has been a few interesting performances, it will take a few more weeks till we get an idea of how the season should pan out. It’s easy to get fooled by early stats and while we can do our best to find winners we have to go off last season’s results, stats and to a certain degree form. I have yet to make a huge confidence play of 2 Units and it’s likely still a few weeks away. Our current results have been okay and just below even, while the daily predicted results are trending in the right direction that gives us the confidence moving forward and something that I monitor just as much as the plays. Anyhow, there are a couple of games I’m pretty keen to bet into on Wednesday. Let’s take a look.
Best Bet – Jays -1.5 $2.00 (1u)
Next Best – Pirates -1.5 $2.15 (0.5u)
Double – Mets/Indians $2.43 (0.5u)
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians (6.10am AEST)
White Sox ($2.98) – Shields (6-19, 5.85 ERA) 2016
Indians ($1.41) – Carrasco (11-8, 3.32 ERA) 2016
Last season runners up have gotten off to an okay start in 2017 but a few rough pitching outings have kept them at .500. Carlos Carrasco is coming off his career year and his first start was promising. He went just over 5 innings with 7 K’s giving up 2 earned runs. His home splits last year where not the best but he has a few injury concerns at times so there may be a reasoning there. He is one of the names thrown up in the Cy Young predictions, so must be respected. Big Game James was the opposite, coming off arguably his worse season where his ERA ballooned, he did get off to a nice start in his first outing of the new season. Throwing 100 pitches over 5 innings he struck out 5 and gave up only the single earned run. In his only outing in Cleveland in 2016 he was belted for 8 runs in under 2 innings. I can’t go away from this and he regularly gave up the long ball, looking like he has lost a step on his fastball. Indians can score runs at home so I have to take them with the run line here.
Indians -1.5 $1.90
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9.10am AEST)
Reds ($2.50) – Davies (—, -.– ERA) 2016
Pirates ($1.55) – Taillon (5-4, 3.38 ERA) 2016
After a quick jump on the Pirates on Tuesday the Reds cruised to a 7-1 victory in game 1 of what is always a fiery series. Pittsburgh will have the better youngster on the mound in this one though with the every improving Jameson Taillon. He went toe to toe with Chris Sale in his first start of 2017 giving up only 5 hits over 7 innings at Fenway Park. His work at PNC Park in 2016 was superb going 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA over 11 starts. He is a potential All Star and needs to be respected. The Reds will throw up Rookie Davies, who like his name, is a rookie. His first career start was rocking throwing 74 pitches in just 3 innings against the Phillies. You can’t look any other way here apart from a Pirates win. Yes, the Reds usually upset the Bucs but I can’t go on that theory alone. Pirates by a couple.
Pirates -1.5 $2.15
Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays (9.10am AEST)
Brewers ($2.68) – Peralta 7-11,4.86 ERA) 2016
Blue Jays ($1.49) – Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA) 2016
The Jays will be happy to finally get their 2017 home opener sorted after a rocky start going 1-5. Surprisingly that usually potent batting lineup was kept quiet, scoring over 3 runs just the once in 6 games. A feat the never managed in 2016 over a 6 game span. It will be last season’s money maker (for us anyways) JA Happ who gets the start, where he went 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA at the Rogers Centre. Willy Peralta had a nice outting in his first start of the 2017 season throwing 5 shutout innings. His road work last season garnered him a 4.39 ERA and a .315 BAA. I have to stick with Happ, he was so good to us in 2016 at home. Let’s go again
Jays -1.5 $2.00
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.